New formulas for predicting liquefaction-induced lateral spreading: model tree approach

Liquefaction-induced lateral ground spreading is a serious concern of geotechnical engineers because of its hazardous impact on structures. In recent decades, many researchers have focused on developing models which can be used to estimate the amount of lateral spread displacement. In this study, we propose new predictive models using the M5′ model tree algorithm. The models include single sets of formulas on both free face and sloping ground conditions that differ from traditional approaches in which the two topography conditions are considered separately. We demonstrate that the novel equations outperform the traditional ones in terms of accuracy, simplicity and physical interpretability. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the significance of each governing parameter on the output of the new model. The results are used to develop a formula that can be employed for preliminary estimation of the lateral spreading using the most important input parameters. A simple dimensionless model is also derived with an appropriate degree of accuracy.