Observed and dark diversity of alien plant species in Europe: estimating future invasion risk

Invasion by alien species is a growing concern for nature conservation. We estimated the level of invasion by alien plant species and future invasion risks at the European scale. We used a pan-European atlas and eight regional plant atlases to determine the distribution of alien and native plant richness. In addition, we estimated alien and native dark diversity (species currently absent from a site but present in the surrounding region and able to colonize the site). We used relative diversity metrics to indicate current and future risks by alien species: relative alien richness (compared to native species), alien and native completeness (log-ratio of observed to dark diversity) and completeness difference between alien and native species. Observed and relative richness of alien species were greatest in NW Europe; this suggests that sites in NW Europe could be more disturbed. Observed alien and native species richness show clear regional hotspots; the distribution of completeness values is dispersed, indicating local hotspots. Northern Europe has relatively lower alien completeness, likely because potential invaders inhabit the region but have not yet reached many localities, thereby suggesting a risk of future invasion. A greater number of potential alien species in the region increases the probability that some alien species could have detrimental impacts. Both alien richness and completeness are positively correlated with native richness and completeness, respectively, indicating that both groups share similar distribution patterns. Alien species diversity metrics in Europe are related positively to human population density and agricultural land-use. We suggest that the dark diversity concept can broaden our understanding of alien species diversity and future invasion risks.