On On-line Systems for Short-term Forecasting for Energy Systems

The paper describes experiences with developing on-line computer systems for short-term forecasting of wind power production and heat consumption in district heating networks. The computer systems are briefly described and some general aspects regarding system modeling with the purpose of forecasting are discussed. One consequence of the approach used is that the stochastic properties of the forecast errors can not be inferred from the models generating the forecasts. With the purpose of using the stochastic properties as input to formal OR-models we discuss how these can be modeled.