Top

Hydrogeology Journal

Published in:

22-02-2020 | Paper

Parameter sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional cryo-hydrogeological numerical model of degrading permafrost near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada)

Authors: Britt M. C. Albers, John W. Molson, Victor F. Bense

Published in: Hydrogeology Journal | Issue 3/2020

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config

AI-assisted search

Off

Abstract

A calibrated field-scale numerical model of groundwater flow and permafrost degradation has been used in a sensitivity analysis of permafrost thaw on thermal and hydraulic parameters. The two-dimensional cryo-hydrogeological model was developed using the HEATFLOW-SMOKER code applied to the Umiujaq field site in Nunavik, Quebec, Canada, and includes coupled groundwater flow and advective–conductive heat transport with latent-heat and temperature-dependent thermal and hydraulic properties. Model sensitivity was evaluated by using the PEST code to systematically vary selected thermal and hydraulic parameters, and was quantified with respect to three system output variables or ‘targets’: subsurface temperature, groundwater velocity and ground-surface heat flux. PEST-derived model sensitivities were similar for all targets which contained subsurface temperature profiles, while sensitivities were slightly higher when only summer conditions were considered as the target compared to a full year of data. This trend was attributed to greater heat exchange at the ground surface during the summer months, leading to a more active groundwater flow system and greater feedback to the thermal regime. For all targets, the hydraulic and thermal parameters of the shallow layers (fine sand and marine silt, respectively) as well as the parameters defining the ground-surface heat exchange layer, were more sensitive compared to the deeper layers (coarse sand and gravel, and unfractured bedrock). Sensitivities were also among the highest for the ground-surface heat flux target. High model sensitivity to these parameters highlights the importance of detailed site characterization in the near-surface zone for more realistic simulations of permafrost dynamics.

previous article Coupled cryo-hydrogeological modelling of permafrost dynamics near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada)

next article Role of Quaternary glacial-outburst megaflood paleochannel deposits in a basalt-dominated aquifer system in the West Plains area of eastern Washington, USA

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Albers BMC (2018) Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of a 2D Cryo-hydrogeological Numerical Model of Degrading Permafrost at Umiujaq, Quebec, Canada. MSc Thesis, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Allard M, Lemay M (2012) Nunavik and Nunatsiavut: from science to policy—an integrated regional impact study (IRIS) of climate change and modernization. ArcticNet, Quebec City, QC, 303 pp

Allard M, Seguin MK (1987) The Holocene evolution of permafrost near the tree line, on the eastern coast of Hudson Bay (northern Quebec). Can J Earth Sci 24(11):2206–2222CrossRef

Allard M, Wang B, Pilon JA (1995) Recent cooling along the southern shore of Hudson Strait, Quebec, Canada, documented from permafrost temperature measurements. Arct Alp Res 27(2):157–166CrossRef

Bahremand A, de Smedt F (2008) Distributed hydrological modeling and sensitivity analysis in Torysa watershed, Slovakia. Water Resour Manag 22(3):393–408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9168-x CrossRef

Beck I, Ludwig R, Bernier M, Lévesque E, Boike J (2015) Assessing permafrost degradation and land cover changes (1986–2009) using remote sensing data over Umiujaq, sub-Arctic Québec. Permafr Periglac Process 26(2):129–141. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1839 CrossRef

Bense VF, Kooi H, Ferguson G, Read T (2012) Permafrost degradation as a control on hydrogeological regime shifts in a warming climate. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 117(F03036). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JF002143

Bush E, Lemmen DS (eds) (2019) Canada’s changing climate report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 444 pp

Buteau S, Fortier R, Delisle G, Allard M (2004) Numerical simulation of the impacts of climate warming on a permafrost mound. Permafr Periglac Process 15(1):41–57. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.474 CrossRef

Dagenais S (2018) Coupled Cryo-hydrogeological modelling of permafrost dynamics at Umiujaq, Québec, Canada, MSc Thesis, Université Laval, Quebec City, QC, Canada

Dagenais S, Molson J, Lemieux J-M, Fortier R, Therrien R (2020) Coupled cryo-hydrogeological modelling of permafrost dynamics near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada). Hydrogeol J. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02111-3

Doherty J (2015) Calibration and uncertainty analysis for complex environmental models. Watermark, Brisbane, Australia

Doherty J (2018) Model-independent parameter estimation user manual, part I: PEST, SENSAN and global optimisers. Watermark, Brisbane, Australia, 393 pp

Fortier R, LeBlanc AM, Yu W (2011) Impacts of permafrost degradation on a road embankment at Umiujaq in Nunavik (Quebec), Canada. Can Geotech J 48(5):720–740. https://doi.org/10.1139/T10-101 CrossRef

Fortier R, Lemieux J-M, Therrien R, Molson J (2013) Campagne de forages pour l’installation de puits d’observation des eaux souterraines dans un petit bassin versant pergélisolé à Umiujaq. Rapport de la phase III du projet de déploiement du réseau Immatsiak remis au MDDEFP [Drilling campaign for the installation of groundwater observation wells in a small permafrost watershed in Umiujaq. Phase III report of the Immatsiak network deployment project submitted to the MDDEFP]. MDDEFP, Quebec City, QC, 89 pp

Fortier R, Banville D-R, Lévesque R, Lemieux J-M, Molson J, Therrien R, Ouellet M (2020) Development of a three-dimensional geological model, based on Quaternary chronology, geological mapping, and geophysical investigation, of a watershed in the discontinuous permafrost zone near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada). Hydrogeol J. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02113-1

Ghanbarian B, Daigle H (2016) Thermal conductivity in porous media: percolation-based effective-medium approximation. Water Resour Res 52:295–314. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017236 CrossRef

Grenier C, Anbergen H, Bense V, Chanzy Q, Coon E, Collier N, Costard F, Ferry M, Frampton A, Frederick J, Holmen J, Jost A, Kokh S, Kyrylyk B, McKenzie J, Molson J, Mouche E, Orgonzo L, Pannetier R, Rivière A, Roux N, Rühaak W, Scheidegger J, Selroos J-O, Therrien R, Vidstrand P, Voss C (2018) Groundwater flow and heat transport for systems undergoing freeze-thaw: intercomparison of numerical simulators for 2D test cases. Adv Water Resour 114:196–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.02.001 CrossRef

Grosse G, Romanovsky V, Jorgenson T, Anthony KW, Brown J, Overduin PP (2011) Vulnerability and feedbacks of permafrost to climate change. Trans Am Geophys Union 92(9):73–74CrossRef

Gubler S, Endrizzi S, Gruber S, Purves RS (2013) Sensitivities and uncertainties of modeled ground temperatures in mountain environments. Geosci Model Dev 6(4):1319–1336. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1319-2013 CrossRef

Hamby DM (1994) A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models. Environ Monit Assess 32(2):135–154CrossRef

Hill MC (1998) Methods and guidelines for effective model calibration. US Geol Surv Water Resour Invest Rep 98-4005

IPCC (2013) The physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1535 pp

Jamin P, Cochand M, Dagenais S, Lemieux J-M, Fortier R, Molson J, Brouyère S (2020) Direct measurement of groundwater flux in aquifers within the discontinuous permafrost zone: an application of the finite volume point dilution method near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada). Hydrogeol J. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02108-y

Kleinberg RL, Griffin DD (2005) NMR measurements of permafrost: unfrozen water assay, pore-scale distribution of ice, and hydraulic permeability of sediments. Cold Reg Sci Technol 42(1):63–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2004.12.002 CrossRef

Kurylyk BL, MacQuarrie KTB, McKenzie JM (2014) Climate change impacts on groundwater and soil temperatures in cold and temperate regions: implications, mathematical theory, and emerging simulation tools. Earth-Sci Rev 138:313–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.06.006 CrossRef

Lawrence D, Haddeland I, Langsholt E (2009) Calibration of HBV hydrological models using PEST parameter estimation. NVE report 1-2009, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway

Lemieux J-M, Fortier R, Talbot-Poulin MC, Molson J, Therrien R, Ouellet M, Banville D, Cochand M, Murray R (2016) Groundwater occurrence in cold environments: examples from Nunavik, Canada. Hydrogeol J 24(6):497–1513. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1411-1 CrossRef

Lemieux J-M, Fortier R, Murray R, Dagenais S, Cochand M, Delottier H, Therrien R, Molson J, Pryet A, Parhizkar M (2020) Groundwater dynamics within a watershed in the discontinuous permafrost zone near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada). Hydrogeol J. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02110-4

Lenhart T, Eckhardt K, Fohrer N, Frede HG (2002) Comparison of two different approaches of sensitivity analysis. Phys Chem Earth 27(9–10):645–654CrossRef

Levenberg K (1944) A method for the solution of certain non-linear problems in least squares. Q Appl Math 2(2):164–168CrossRef

Liao C, Zhuang Q (2017) Quantifying the role of permafrost distribution in groundwater and surface water interactions using a three-dimensional hydrological model. Arct Antarct Alp Res 49(1):81–100. https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-022 CrossRef

Luetschg M, Lehning M, Haeberli W (2008) A sensitivity study of factors influencing warm/thin permafrost in the Swiss Alps. J Glaciol 54(187):696–704CrossRef

Madsen H, Wilson G, Ammentorp HC (2002) Comparison of different automated strategies for calibration of rainfall-runoff models. J Hydrol 261(1–4):48–59CrossRef

Mareschal JC, Jaupart C (2004) Variations of surface heat flow and lithospheric thermal structure beneath the North American craton. Earth Planet Sci Lett 223(1–2):65–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.002 CrossRef

Marmy A, Salzmann N, Scherler M, Hauck C (2013) Permafrost model sensitivity to seasonal climatic changes and extreme events in mountainous regions. Environ Res Lett 8(3):L035048. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035048 CrossRef

Marquardt DW (1963) An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. J Soc Ind Appl Math 11(2):431–441CrossRef

McKenzie JM, Voss CI (2013) Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system. Hydrogeol J 21(1):299–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.08.008 CrossRef

Molson J, Frind EO (2018) HEATFLOW/SMOKER density-dependent flow and advective-dispersive transport of thermal energy, mass or residence time in three-dimensional porous or discretely-fractured porous media. Université Laval, Quebec City, QC

Molson J, Frind EO, Palmer CD (1992) Thermal energy storage in an unconfined aquifer: 2. model development, validation, and application. Water Resour Res 28(10):2857–2867CrossRef

Osterkamp TE (2005) The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska. Glob Planet Chang 49(3–4):187–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.09.001 CrossRef

Pang Q, Zhao L, Li S, Ding Y (2012) Active layer thickness variations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the scenarios of climate change. Environ Earth Sci 66(3):849–857. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-1296-1 CrossRef

Pehme P, Parker BL, Cherry JA, Molson J, Greenhouse JP (2013) Enhanced detection of hydraulically active fractures by temperature profiling in lined heated bedrock boreholes. J Hydrol 484:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.048 CrossRef

Rakovec O, Hill MC, Clark MP, Weerts AH, Teuling AJ, Uijlenhoet R (2014) Distributed evaluation of local sensitivity analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models. Water Resour Res 50(1):409–426. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014063 CrossRef

Rowland JC, Travis BJ, Wilson CJ (2011) The role of advective heat transport in talik development beneath lakes and ponds in discontinuous permafrost. Geophys Res Lett 38(17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048497

Shojae-Ghias MS, Therrien R, Molson J, Lemieux J-M (2016) Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater-flow and heat-transport system: Iqaluit airport, Nunavut, Canada. Hydrogeol J 25(3):657–673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-016-1515-7 CrossRef

Smith SL, Burgess MM, Riseborough D, Mark Nixon F (2005) Recent trends from Canadian permafrost thermal monitoring network sites. Permafr Periglac Process 16(1):19–30. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.511 CrossRef

Song X, Zhang J, Zhan C, Xuan Y, Ye M, Xu C (2015) Global sensitivity analysis in hydrological modeling: review of concepts, methods, theoretical framework, and applications. J Hydrol 523:739–757. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.02.013 CrossRef

Streletskiy DA, Shiklomanov NI, Nelson FE (2012) Spatial variability of permafrost active-layer thickness under contemporary and projected climate in northern Alaska. Polar Geogr 35(2):95–116. https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2012.680204 CrossRef

Wania R, Ross I, Prentice IC (2009) Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. evaluation and sensitivity of physical land surface processes. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 23(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003412

Wellman TP, Voss CI, Walvoord MA (2013) Impacts of climate, lake size, and supra-and sub-permafrost groundwater flow on lake-talik evolution, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA). Hydrogeol J 21(1):281–298. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-012-0941-4 CrossRef

Zhang Y, Chen W, Riseborough DW (2006) Temporal and spatial changes of permafrost in Canada since the end of the Little Ice Age. J Geophys Res Atmos 111(D22). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007284

Zhang Y, Chen W, Riseborough DW (2008) Disequilibrium response of permafrost thaw to climate warming in Canada over 1850–2100. Geophys Res Lett 35(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032117

Zhao L, Ping CL, Yang D, Cheng G, Ding Y, Liu S (2004) Changes of climate and seasonally frozen ground over the past 30 years in Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau, China. Glob Planet Chang 43(1–2):19–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.02.003 CrossRef

Zipper SC, Lamontagne-Hallé P, McKenzie JM, Rocha AV (2018) Groundwater controls on post-fire permafrost thaw: water and energy balance effects. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 123(10):2677–2694. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JF004611 CrossRef

Title: Parameter sensitivity analysis of a two-dimensional cryo-hydrogeological numerical model of degrading permafrost near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada)
Authors: Britt M. C. Albers
John W. Molson
Victor F. Bense
Publication date: 22-02-2020
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in: Hydrogeology Journal / Issue 3/2020
Print ISSN: 1431-2174
Electronic ISSN: 1435-0157
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02112-2

Springer Professional

Abstract

Please log in to get access to your license.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Other articles of this Issue 3/2020

Characterization of recharge processes and groundwater flow paths using isotopes in the arid Santanghu basin, Northwest China

Role of Quaternary glacial-outburst megaflood paleochannel deposits in a basalt-dominated aquifer system in the West Plains area of eastern Washington, USA

Numerical groundwater flow modeling for managing the Gabes Jeffara aquifer system (Tunisia) in relation with oasis ecosystems

Controls over hydrogen and oxygen isotopes of surface water and groundwater in the Mun River catchment, northeast Thailand: implications for the water cycle

Rapid groundwater recharge dynamics determined from hydrogeochemical and isotope data in a small permafrost watershed near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada)

Groundwater dynamics within a watershed in the discontinuous permafrost zone near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Canada)