Skip to main content
Top

2017 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

5. Polarity after 1990, a Historical Comparison

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Our historical comparison shows that both the nineteenth century and the period after 1990 are difficult to describe in a polarity framework. Yet, many neorealists call the post-Cold War unipolar. This is due to the focus on material capabilities and military power, and excluding cluster polarity from the analysis. They also do not realize that during the nineteenth century there were substantial shifts in power distributions, without fixed cluster polarity. Neorealists claim that balancing became impossible after 1990, but forget that this did not happen against Britain during the nineteenth century. There definitely exists an American military unipolarity on the global level but this does not lead to a political or military dominance in regional systems.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
go back to reference Bernstein, R., & Munro, R. H. (1997). China I: The coming conflict with America. Foreign Affairs, 76(2), 18–31.CrossRef Bernstein, R., & Munro, R. H. (1997). China I: The coming conflict with America. Foreign Affairs, 76(2), 18–31.CrossRef
go back to reference Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2002). American primacy in perspective. Foreign Affairs, 81(4), 20–33.CrossRef Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2002). American primacy in perspective. Foreign Affairs, 81(4), 20–33.CrossRef
go back to reference Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2005). Hard times for soft balancing. International Security, 30(1), 72–108.CrossRef Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2005). Hard times for soft balancing. International Security, 30(1), 72–108.CrossRef
go back to reference Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2008). World out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRef Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2008). World out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Bull, H. (2002). The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics (3rd ed.). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. (Originally published in 1977) Bull, H. (2002). The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics (3rd ed.). Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. (Originally published in 1977)
go back to reference Buzan, B. (2003). Security architecture in Asia: The interplay of regional and global levels. The Pacific Review, 16(2), 143–173.CrossRef Buzan, B. (2003). Security architecture in Asia: The interplay of regional and global levels. The Pacific Review, 16(2), 143–173.CrossRef
go back to reference Buzan, B. (2004a). The United States and the Great Powers: World Politics in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge: Polity Press. Buzan, B. (2004a). The United States and the Great Powers: World Politics in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge: Polity Press.
go back to reference Buzan, B. (2011). A world order without superpowers: Decentred globalism (The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture). International Relations, 25(1), 3–25.CrossRef Buzan, B. (2011). A world order without superpowers: Decentred globalism (The Inaugural Kenneth N. Waltz Annual Lecture). International Relations, 25(1), 3–25.CrossRef
go back to reference Buzan, B., & Waever, O. (2003). Regions and Power: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Buzan, B., & Waever, O. (2003). Regions and Power: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Calleo, D. P. (2009). Follies of Power: America’s Unipolar Fantasy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef Calleo, D. P. (2009). Follies of Power: America’s Unipolar Fantasy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Carrère d’Encausse, H. (2011). La Russie entre Deux Mondes. Paris: Librairie Arthème Fayard Pluriel. Carrère d’Encausse, H. (2011). La Russie entre Deux Mondes. Paris: Librairie Arthème Fayard Pluriel.
go back to reference Chan, S. (2008). China, the U.S., and the Power Transition Theory. London/New York: Routledge. Chan, S. (2008). China, the U.S., and the Power Transition Theory. London/New York: Routledge.
go back to reference Christensen, T. J. (2001). Posing problems without catching up: China’s rise and challenge for U.S. security policy. International Security, 25(4), 5–40.CrossRef Christensen, T. J. (2001). Posing problems without catching up: China’s rise and challenge for U.S. security policy. International Security, 25(4), 5–40.CrossRef
go back to reference Correlates of War Project. (2010). National Material Capabilities Dataset V4.0. (www.correlatesofwar.org). Originally published by Singer, J. D., Bremer, S., & Stuckey, J. (1972). Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power wars, 1820–1965. In Bruce Russett (Ed.), Peace, War, and Numbers (pp. 19–48). Beverly Hills: Sage; revised in Singer, J. D. (1987). Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816–1985. International Interactions, 14(2), 115–132. Correlates of War Project. (2010). National Material Capabilities Dataset V4.0. (www.​correlatesofwar.​org). Originally published by Singer, J. D., Bremer, S., & Stuckey, J. (1972). Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power wars, 1820–1965. In Bruce Russett (Ed.), Peace, War, and Numbers (pp. 19–48). Beverly Hills: Sage; revised in Singer, J. D. (1987). Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816–1985. International Interactions, 14(2), 115–132.
go back to reference Echard, W. E. (1983). Napoleon III and the Concert of Europe. Baton Rouge/London: Louisiana State University Press. Echard, W. E. (1983). Napoleon III and the Concert of Europe. Baton Rouge/London: Louisiana State University Press.
go back to reference Emmott, B. (2009). Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan will Shape our Next Decade. London: Penguin Books. Emmott, B. (2009). Rivals: How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan will Shape our Next Decade. London: Penguin Books.
go back to reference Feldman, N. (2013) Cool War: The Future of Global Competition. New York: Random House. Feldman, N. (2013) Cool War: The Future of Global Competition. New York: Random House.
go back to reference Feng, Z., & Huang, J. (2014). China’s Strategic Partnership Diplomacy: Engaging with a Changing World. (ESPO Working Paper 8). Madrid/Brussels: Fride/Egmont. Feng, Z., & Huang, J. (2014). China’s Strategic Partnership Diplomacy: Engaging with a Changing World. (ESPO Working Paper 8). Madrid/Brussels: Fride/Egmont.
go back to reference Fischer, F. (1967). Germany’s Aims in the First World War. New York: Norton & Company. (Original title: Griff nach der Weltmacht. (1964). (4de Ausg.). Düsseldorf: Droste Verlag und Druckerei) Fischer, F. (1967). Germany’s Aims in the First World War. New York: Norton & Company. (Original title: Griff nach der Weltmacht. (1964). (4de Ausg.). Düsseldorf: Droste Verlag und Druckerei)
go back to reference Gauchon, P., & Huissoud, J. M. (2007). Les Grandes Puissances du XXIe Siècle. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France. Gauchon, P., & Huissoud, J. M. (2007). Les Grandes Puissances du XXIe Siècle. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.
go back to reference Haas, Mark. L. (2014). Ideological polarity and balancing in great power politics. Security Studies, 23(4), 715–753. Haas, Mark. L. (2014). Ideological polarity and balancing in great power politics. Security Studies, 23(4), 715–753.
go back to reference Hobsbawm, E. (1994). The Age of Empire 1875–1914. London: Abacus. Hobsbawm, E. (1994). The Age of Empire 1875–1914. London: Abacus.
go back to reference Huntington, S. (1999). The lonely superpower. Foreign Affairs, 78(2), 35–50.CrossRef Huntington, S. (1999). The lonely superpower. Foreign Affairs, 78(2), 35–50.CrossRef
go back to reference Hyde-Price, A. G. V. (2007). European Security in the Twenty-First Century: The Challenge of Multipolarity. London: Routledge. Hyde-Price, A. G. V. (2007). European Security in the Twenty-First Century: The Challenge of Multipolarity. London: Routledge.
go back to reference Ikenberry, G. J. (2001). After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Ikenberry, G. J. (2001). After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
go back to reference Ikenberry, G. J., Mastanduno, M., & Wohlforth, W. C. (Eds.) (2011). International Relations Theory and the Consequences of Unipolarity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Ikenberry, G. J., Mastanduno, M., & Wohlforth, W. C. (Eds.) (2011). International Relations Theory and the Consequences of Unipolarity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
go back to reference Jervis, R. (2009). Unipolarity: A structural perspective. World Politics, 61(1), 188–216. Jervis, R. (2009). Unipolarity: A structural perspective. World Politics, 61(1), 188–216.
go back to reference Kennedy, P. (1980). The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860–1914. London/Boston: Allen & Unwin. Kennedy, P. (1980). The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860–1914. London/Boston: Allen & Unwin.
go back to reference Kennedy, P. (1987). The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House. Kennedy, P. (1987). The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House.
go back to reference Khanna, P. (2008). The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order. New York: Random House. Khanna, P. (2008). The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order. New York: Random House.
go back to reference Kristensen, H. M. & Norris, R. S. (2010). Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945–2010. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 66(4), 77–83. Kristensen, H. M. & Norris, R. S. (2010). Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945–2010. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 66(4), 77–83.
go back to reference Layne, C. (1993). The unipolar illusion: Why new great powers will rise? International Security, 17(4), 5–51.CrossRef Layne, C. (1993). The unipolar illusion: Why new great powers will rise? International Security, 17(4), 5–51.CrossRef
go back to reference Layne, C. (2006). The unipolar illusion revisited: The coming end of the United States’ unipolar moment. International Security, 31(2), 7–41.CrossRef Layne, C. (2006). The unipolar illusion revisited: The coming end of the United States’ unipolar moment. International Security, 31(2), 7–41.CrossRef
go back to reference Layne, C. (2009). The waning of U.S. hegemony, myth or reality? A review essay. International Security, 34(1), 147–172.CrossRef Layne, C. (2009). The waning of U.S. hegemony, myth or reality? A review essay. International Security, 34(1), 147–172.CrossRef
go back to reference Layne, C. (2011). The unipolar exit: Beyond the Pax Americana. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 24(2), 149–164.CrossRef Layne, C. (2011). The unipolar exit: Beyond the Pax Americana. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 24(2), 149–164.CrossRef
go back to reference Layne, C. (2012). This time it’s real: The end of unipolarity and the Pax Americana. International Studies Quarterly, 56(1), 203–2013.CrossRef Layne, C. (2012). This time it’s real: The end of unipolarity and the Pax Americana. International Studies Quarterly, 56(1), 203–2013.CrossRef
go back to reference Layne, C., Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2012). US decline or primacy? A debate. In M. Cox & D. Stokes (Eds.), U.S. Foreign Policy (2nd ed.) (409–429). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Layne, C., Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2012). US decline or primacy? A debate. In M. Cox & D. Stokes (Eds.), U.S. Foreign Policy (2nd ed.) (409–429). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Lo, B. (2008). Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics. London: Chatham House. Lo, B. (2008). Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics. London: Chatham House.
go back to reference Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton.
go back to reference Medlicott, W. N. (1956). Bismarck, Gladstone and the Concert of Europe. London: University of London/The Athlone Press. Medlicott, W. N. (1956). Bismarck, Gladstone and the Concert of Europe. London: University of London/The Athlone Press.
go back to reference Monteiro, N. P. (2014). Theory of Unipolar Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (Kindle edition) Monteiro, N. P. (2014). Theory of Unipolar Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (Kindle edition)
go back to reference Nye, J. S. (2002). The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go it Alone. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press. Nye, J. S. (2002). The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go it Alone. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Pape, R. A. (2005). Soft balancing against the United States. International Security, 30(1), 7–45.CrossRef Pape, R. A. (2005). Soft balancing against the United States. International Security, 30(1), 7–45.CrossRef
go back to reference Pashakhanlou, A. H. (2014). Waltz, Mearsheimer and the post-Cold War world: The rise of America and the fall of structural realism. International Politics, 51(3), 295–315.CrossRef Pashakhanlou, A. H. (2014). Waltz, Mearsheimer and the post-Cold War world: The rise of America and the fall of structural realism. International Politics, 51(3), 295–315.CrossRef
go back to reference Paul, T. V. (2005). Soft balancing in the age of U.S. primacy. International Security, 30(1), 46–47.CrossRef Paul, T. V. (2005). Soft balancing in the age of U.S. primacy. International Security, 30(1), 46–47.CrossRef
go back to reference Perlo-Freeman, S., Fleuran, A., Wezeman, P., & Wezemen, S. (2016). Trends in World Military Expenditures, 2015. Stockholm: SIPRI. Perlo-Freeman, S., Fleuran, A., Wezeman, P., & Wezemen, S. (2016). Trends in World Military Expenditures, 2015. Stockholm: SIPRI.
go back to reference Perlo-Freeman, S., & Solmirano, C. (2014). Trends in Military Expenditures, 2013. Stockholm: SIPRI. Perlo-Freeman, S., & Solmirano, C. (2014). Trends in Military Expenditures, 2013. Stockholm: SIPRI.
go back to reference Posen, B. R. (2003). Command of the commons: The military foundation of US hegemony. International Security, 28(1), 5–46.CrossRef Posen, B. R. (2003). Command of the commons: The military foundation of US hegemony. International Security, 28(1), 5–46.CrossRef
go back to reference Posen, B. R. (2011) From unipolarity to multipolarity: Transition in sight? In G. J. Ikenberry, M. Mastanduno & W. C. Wohlforth (Eds.), International Relations Theory and the Consequences of Unipolarity, (317–341). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Posen, B. R. (2011) From unipolarity to multipolarity: Transition in sight? In G. J. Ikenberry, M. Mastanduno & W. C. Wohlforth (Eds.), International Relations Theory and the Consequences of Unipolarity, (317–341). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
go back to reference Roy, D. (1994) Hegemon on the horizon? China’s threat to East Asian security, International Security, 19(1), 149–168. Roy, D. (1994) Hegemon on the horizon? China’s threat to East Asian security, International Security, 19(1), 149–168.
go back to reference Schroeder, P. W. (1994a). Historical reality versus neorealist theory. International Security, 19(1), 108–148.CrossRef Schroeder, P. W. (1994a). Historical reality versus neorealist theory. International Security, 19(1), 108–148.CrossRef
go back to reference Schweller, R. L. (2011). The future is uncertain and the end is always near. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 24(2), 175–184.CrossRef Schweller, R. L. (2011). The future is uncertain and the end is always near. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 24(2), 175–184.CrossRef
go back to reference Shambaugh, D. (2013). China Goes Global: The Partial Power. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Shambaugh, D. (2013). China Goes Global: The Partial Power. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Sperling, J. C. (2010). American perceptions of the EU: Through a glass, darkly or through a looking glass? In S. Lucarelli & L. Fioramonti (Eds.), External Perceptions of the European Union as a Global Actor (pp. 13–31). London: Routledge. Sperling, J. C. (2010). American perceptions of the EU: Through a glass, darkly or through a looking glass? In S. Lucarelli & L. Fioramonti (Eds.), External Perceptions of the European Union as a Global Actor (pp. 13–31). London: Routledge.
go back to reference TNS Emnid (2006). World Powers in the 21st Century: The Results of a Representative Survey in Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung. TNS Emnid (2006). World Powers in the 21st Century: The Results of a Representative Survey in Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung.
go back to reference Uyvari, B. (2016). The BRICS New Development Bank and the EU’s Options. (College of Europe Policy Paper). Bruges: College of Europe. Uyvari, B. (2016). The BRICS New Development Bank and the EU’s Options. (College of Europe Policy Paper). Bruges: College of Europe.
go back to reference Voeten, E. (2005). The political origins of the UN Security Council’s ability to legitimize the use of force. International Organization, 59(3), 527–557.CrossRef Voeten, E. (2005). The political origins of the UN Security Council’s ability to legitimize the use of force. International Organization, 59(3), 527–557.CrossRef
go back to reference Walton, C. D. (2007). Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the Twenty-First Century: Multipolarity and the Revolution in Strategic Perspective. London: Routledge. Walton, C. D. (2007). Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the Twenty-First Century: Multipolarity and the Revolution in Strategic Perspective. London: Routledge.
go back to reference Waltz, K. N. (1964). The stability of a bipolar world. Daedalus, 93(3), 881–909. Waltz, K. N. (1964). The stability of a bipolar world. Daedalus, 93(3), 881–909.
go back to reference Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill. Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill.
go back to reference Waltz, K. N. (1993). The emerging structure of international politics, International Security, 18(2), 44–79. Waltz, K. N. (1993). The emerging structure of international politics, International Security, 18(2), 44–79.
go back to reference Waltz, K. N. (1997). Evaluating theories, American Political Science Review, 91(4), 913–917. Waltz, K. N. (1997). Evaluating theories, American Political Science Review, 91(4), 913–917.
go back to reference Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural realism after the Cold War, International Security, 25(1), 5–41. Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural realism after the Cold War, International Security, 25(1), 5–41.
go back to reference Wendt, A. (1999). Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Wendt, A. (1999). Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
go back to reference Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The stability of a unipolar world. International Security, 24(1), 5–41.CrossRef Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The stability of a unipolar world. International Security, 24(1), 5–41.CrossRef
go back to reference Wohlforth, W. C. (2002). U.S. strategy in a unipolar world? In G. J. Ikenberry (Ed.), America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (pp. 98–118). Ithaca: Cornell University Press. Wohlforth, W. C. (2002). U.S. strategy in a unipolar world? In G. J. Ikenberry (Ed.), America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (pp. 98–118). Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
go back to reference Wohlforth, W. C. (2007). Unipolar stability: The rules of power analysis. Harvard International Review, 29(1), 45–48. Wohlforth, W. C. (2007). Unipolar stability: The rules of power analysis. Harvard International Review, 29(1), 45–48.
go back to reference Wohlforth, W. C. (2009). Unipolarity, status competition, and great power war. World Politics, 61(1), 28–57.CrossRef Wohlforth, W. C. (2009). Unipolarity, status competition, and great power war. World Politics, 61(1), 28–57.CrossRef
go back to reference Zakaria, F. (2008). The Post-American World. New York/London: W.W. Norton & Company. Zakaria, F. (2008). The Post-American World. New York/London: W.W. Norton & Company.
Metadata
Title
Polarity after 1990, a Historical Comparison
Author
Goedele De Keersmaeker
Copyright Year
2017
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42652-5_5