Primitive Equation Modelling of Plankton Ecosystems

We start with a technical problem that hindered progress in biological oceanography throughout the 20th century, and show how it will be circumvented in the 21st century. Because of inadequate sampling, very little of our knowledge of population dynamics in the plankton ecosystem is derived from hypothesis-free analysis of observations. On the contrary, most of our knowledge comes from mathematical simulation. But here comes Catch 22: the same sampling problems make it very difficult to collect data that can effectively test the models used to make those simulations. So their credibility depends mainly on the equations used in the models. Equations used in 20th century models did not have secure scientific foundations of the kind that made modern physics work. They were not based on reproducible laboratory experiments.