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2014 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

12. Probabilistic Reasoning

Authors : Edwin F. Meyer III, Nickolas Falkner, Raja Sooriamurthi, Zbigniew Michalewicz

Published in: Guide to Teaching Puzzle-based Learning

Publisher: Springer London

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Abstract

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with estimating or calculating the degrees of likelihood. If it is impossible that a particular event would happen, it is given a probability of zero. If it is certain that a particular event would happen, it is given a probability of one. The probabilities of other events (expressed as fractions or decimals) lie between zero and one.

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previous chapter Simulation and Optimization
next chapter Logical Reasoning
Footnotes
1
Patterns in clouds and rock formations are good examples. For a striking example of a natural pattern found in satellite images of the earth, use the Internet to check out the “Indian Head” feature found in Canada, located at coordinates (50°00′ 38.20″ N, 110° 06′ 48.32″ W).
 
2
For an entertaining and eye-opening book on this subject involving the stock market, see Nassim Taleb’s book, Fooled by Randomness, Random House, 1994.
 
3
You can get 15-1 odds on an eleven appearing on a single roll of two dice in a casino (at a craps table). This means that a $1 bet on an eleven being rolled on any particular roll will win $15 and you get your $1 back. So, if you “invest” $1 on each of 36 rolls at these odds (betting that a total eleven will appear on the two dice), your average return will be $32 (winning $15 and getting your $1 bet back on two of the 36 rolls).
 
4
Not all casino games share this property – for example, in blackjack, the probability distribution of getting particular type of card (high or low) changes on every hand.
 
5
It would be nice if you had an actual radar note to pass around.
 
6
Yahtzee is a commercial dice game.
 
Literature
1.
Taleb N (1994) Fooled by randomness. Random House, New York
Metadata
Title
Probabilistic Reasoning
Authors
Edwin F. Meyer III
Nickolas Falkner
Raja Sooriamurthi
Zbigniew Michalewicz
Copyright Year
2014
Publisher
Springer London
Book
Guide to Teaching Puzzle-based Learning

Print ISBN: 978-1-4471-6475-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-1-4471-6476-0

Copyright Year: 2014

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-6476-0_12

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