3. Projection of Water Demand in India in a Macroeconomic Consistency Framework Incorporating the Food, Water and Energy Nexus

Higher economic growth would require higher agricultural growth and higher energy production coupled with urbanization. There are four major sources of demand for water. These are from (1) Agriculture, (2) Residential, (3) Industry, (4) Power Generation. However, Agriculture and Power are major water-using sectors. To understand the competing demands for water from various sectors and the water deficit that may appear in the future and economic growth increases an input–output dynamic optimisation model for a consistent projection of water demand and supply. Total water demand in 2015 is estimated to be at 868 bcm. Water demand increases by nearly 30–40% by 2030 and is almost double by 2050 compared to the levels in 2015. Low carbon policies reduce water demand by 1 billion cubic metre and 7 billion cubic metre in 2050 through INDC and Ambitious policies, respectively. The demand for water from Power of course decreases as we assume MOEFCC guidelines for water conservation in power plants are adhered to. In the scenario of a policy failure, water withdrawal demand from power sector would be nearly 12 times in 2030 and nearly 20 times in 2050.