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Fire Technology
Published in: Fire Technology 5/2021

11-04-2021

Psychological Response in Fire: A Fuzzy Bayesian Network Approach Using Expert Judgment

Authors: Nurulhuda Ramli, Noraida Abdul Ghani, Nazihah Ahmad, Intan Hashimah Mohd Hashim

Published in: Fire Technology | Issue 5/2021

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Abstract

In modelling human behavior during a fire, one has to deal with uncertainties regarding the psychological response due to limited or incomplete knowledge database. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new fuzzy Bayesian Network framework to model causal relationship of psychological response at the initial stage of fire events. Firstly, a new conceptual model namely the PRiF (Psychological Response in a Fire) is developed through the literature of human behaviour in fire evacuation modelling and expert opinion approach. Then, the expert elicitation using fuzzy linguistic concept was adapted in quantifying the PRiF model. Finally, an example of expert elicitation study is demonstrated to illustrate the practical application of the proposed methodology. Results show that the proposed methodology is not only able to capture the sequence of psychological reactions in line with the theory of human behavior in a fire but also can quantitatively measure the likelihood of circumstances of possible undesired scenario, and identify the most influential factors or prioritize the root causes of unsuccessful safe evacuation.
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Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Psychological Response in Fire: A Fuzzy Bayesian Network Approach Using Expert Judgment
Authors
Nurulhuda Ramli
Noraida Abdul Ghani
Nazihah Ahmad
Intan Hashimah Mohd Hashim
Publication date
11-04-2021
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Fire Technology / Issue 5/2021
Print ISSN: 0015-2684
Electronic ISSN: 1572-8099
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-021-01106-0

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