2003 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Risk of Flood Stage Exceedance Upstream from a Bridge
Authors : Marek Sowinski, Adam Marlewski
Published in: Urban Water Management: Science Technology and Service Delivery
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Included in: Professional Book Archive
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Uncertainty in design discharge, known as a hydrologic uncertainty, is usually determined by hydrologic analysis by frequency analysis or by rainfall-runoff modelling. The problem of transforming the design discharge into a flood stage and evaluating its risk is a crucial one for flood risk mapping. It can be solved by applying the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method [1,6]. This operation should also consider the hydraulic uncertainty, which is usually neglected. Hydraulic uncertainty results from different sources, according to its components and can be classified as: (1) the model formulation uncertainty, (2) the geometry of the structure uncertainty and (3) the model parameter uncertainty.