According to the Strategic Road Map for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells mentioned above, we assume that the spread of FCVs will proceed at a pace of 53,333 vehicles per year (cumulative total of 800,000 vehicles over 15 years).
Table
4 shows the estimated decline in the price of components used in FCVs, based on the research on next-generation vehicles by the Chubu Region Institute for Social and Economic Research. The cost of hydrogen tanks, fuel cell stacks, and batteries, which currently increase the price of FCVs, are expected to drop by 2030 due to advances in manufacturing technology and mass production effects. By 2025, the goal is to fix FCV prices as high as hybrid vehicles. We assume that the prices for major FCV components shown in Table
4 are realized and the purchaser’s price of an FCV
6 declines to 3.696 million yen (51.1% of the current price, 7.236 million yen in the case of the Toyota Mirai hydrogen fuel cell vehicle).
Table 4
Costs of FCV components (Unit: Yen).
Source: Influence of Next Generation Mobility Promotion on Chubu Region Industries, CRISER (2015)
Other ceramics and non-mineral products | 2,000,000 | 549,250 | 0.275 | Hydrogen tank |
Industrial electric machine | 116,100 | 48,549 | 0.418 | Driving motor, generator motor, motor inverter (for driving), inverter (for generator), inverter, DC–DC converter, reactor |
Electronic appliances and electric measuring instruments | 9388 | 6398 | 0.682 | Battery management unit, electric current sensor for inverter, electric current center for battery |
Other electrical equipment | 1,330,764 | 408,229 | 0.307 | Nickel metal hydride battery, lithium ion battery, fuel cell stack |
Electronic parts | 3667 | 2591 | 0.707 | Electric current sensor (for inverter) |
Auto parts | − 241,294 | − 241,294 | 1.000 | Engine, fuel tank, transmission, etc. |
Total | 3,459,919 | 1,015,017 | 0.293 | |
Producer’s price | 4,984,800 | 2,546,398 | 0.511 |
Purchaser’s price | 7,236,000 | 3,696,384 | 0.511 |
As shown in Table
5, from the 2011 input–output table, it can be seen that the average price of an ordinary size car is 2.942 million yen (purchaser’s price), and the producer’s price is 2.022 million yen, excluding the commercial and transport margins, although the average prices in the automobile sector are 2.406 million yen and 1.653 million yen for purchaser’s price and producer’s price, respectively. Compared to these prices, the FCV purchaser’s price of 7.236 million yen in 2014 is exorbitant, which is one reason that FCVs are not accepted in the market. Therefore, as shown in Table
4, we assume that the price of FCVs is reduced to 3.696 million yen, replacing gasoline vehicles sold at the same price.
7
Table 5
Relationship between car purchaser price and producer price.
Source: Authors’ calculation
Producer’s price base | 1,653,468 | 2,021,748 | 5,995,755 | 2,539,753 | 2,539,753 |
Wholesale margins | 48,407 | 59,188 | 79,728 | 74,353 | 74,353 |
Retail margins | 665,039 | 813,164 | 1,095,356 | 1,021,510 | 1,021,510 |
Railway freights | 26 | 32 | 43 | 41 | 41 |
Road freights | 30,646 | 37,472 | 50,476 | 47,073 | 47,073 |
Coastal and inland water freights | 1242 | 1519 | 2046 | 1908 | 1908 |
Port service fees | 4266 | 5216 | 7026 | 6552 | 6552 |
Domestic air freights | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Handling service fees | 1651 | 2018 | 2719 | 2536 | 2536 |
Warehouse fees | 1731 | 2116 | 2850 | 2658 | 2658 |
Purchaser’s price base | 2,406,475 | 2,942,474 | 7,236,000 | 3,696,384 | 3,696,384 |
We estimate the input structure of FCVs as follows. First, we obtain the input values for the gasoline vehicle with a purchasing price of 3.696 million yen, after conversion to the producer’s price of 2.540 million yen, by multiplying the input coefficient of the automobile sector. To obtain input values for the FCV, we modify the costs of the gasoline vehicle. We break the total cost down into major input expenses and indirect expenses and obtain each sectoral cost for the indirect expenses by multiplying their total value by the input coefficient of headquarters’ activity sector.
8 The sectoral costs for the major inputs are obtained by subtracting the indirect costs from the originally estimated costs. Thus, major material costs to produce FCVs are modified, based on the costs of parts in Table
4. The difference in the total input cost between the two types of vehicle is absorbed in the value-added sectors of the FCV not to change the price.
9
We finally estimate sectoral inputs by adding two estimated costs: major costs and indirect costs. We refer to a gasoline vehicle at the same price in comparison with an FCV. The difference between them is as follows. Table
6 partly shows the estimated input coefficients of gasoline vehicles and FCVs in the input–output table, which is integrated into 38 sectors to make it easier to see the characteristics.
10 In FCVs, inputs for ceramic, stone and clay products, electric machinery, and electronic components have increased, while input for transportation machines (automobile parts) is decreasing. Total input ratio in FCVs is larger than that in gasoline vehicles, so that the value-added ratio for each stands in opposite relation.
Table 6
Estimated input coefficients in gasoline vehicles and FCVs.
Source: Authors’ calculation
1 | Transportation equipment | 0.5373 | 0.3327 |
2 | Ceramic, stone, and clay products | 0.0198 | 0.2303 |
3 | Electrical machinery | 0.0417 | 0.1824 |
4 | Iron and steel | 0.0475 | 0.0378 |
5 | Plastic and rubber products | 0.0416 | 0.0331 |
6 | Education and research | 0.0408 | 0.0325 |
7 | Commerce | 0.0287 | 0.0229 |
8 | Business services | 0.0281 | 0.0224 |
9 | Information and communication electronics equipment | 0.0208 | 0.0166 |
10 | Transport and postal services | 0.0192 | 0.0153 |
11 | Nonferrous metals | 0.0074 | 0.0059 |
12 | Electricity, gas, and heat supply | 0.0062 | 0.0050 |
13 | Chemical products | 0.0060 | 0.0048 |
14 | Finance and insurance | 0.0043 | 0.0034 |
15 | Metal products | 0.0041 | 0.0032 |
16 | Textile products | 0.0030 | 0.0024 |
17 | Information and communications | 0.0026 | 0.0021 |
18 | Miscellaneous manufacturing products | 0.0023 | 0.0018 |
19 | Real estate | 0.0014 | 0.0011 |
20 | Electronic components | 0.0000 | 0.0010 |
| Other inputs | 0.0043 | 0.0034 |
| Total input ratio | 0.8670 | 0.9599 |
| Value-added ratio | 0.1330 | 0.0401 |
Table
7 shows the overall estimates of fuel purchases for gasoline vehicles and FCVs in the market. The number of units purchased is 53,333 units per year, assuming that the target number of FCVs is 800,000 units over 15 years. The price is 3.696 million yen for each, and the annual purchase amount is 197.14 billion yen. Since it is assumed that the price of conventional vehicles, replaced by FCVs, is the same, sales value is 197.14 billion yen.
Table 7
Comparison of gasoline vehicles and FCVs.
Source: Authors’ calculation
Stock of FCV | 800,000 | 800,000 | unit | 2030 |
Sales per year | 53,333 | 53,333 | unit/year | |
Unit price | 3.696 | 3.696 | mil. Yen | |
Annual purchase amount | 197,140 | 197,140 | mil. Yen | |
Average mileage | 8000 | 8000 | km/year | 2017 |
Fuel efficiency | 10.0 | | km/l | 2015 |
Gasoline consumption per year unit | 800.0 | | l/year unit | |
Gas price | 137.8 | | Yen/l | 2015 |
Gasoline consumption amount | 5878 | | mil. Yen | |
Tank capacity of FCV | | 5 | kg | |
Cruising distance of FCV | | 650 | km | |
Hydrogen fuel efficiency | | 130 | km/kg | |
Hydrogen consumption per year unit | | 61.54 | kg/year unit | |
Hydrogen price | | 1080 | Yen/kg | |
Hydrogen consumption amount | | 3545 | mil. Yen | |
Gasoline for 800 thousand vehicles | 640,000 | | kl | |
Hydrogen for 800 thousand FCV | | 49,230,769 | kg | |
Fuel consumption amount for 800 thousand vehicles | 88,173 | 53,169 | mil. Yen | |
CO2 emissions | 1,486,080 | | t-CO2 | |
CO2 emissions coefficient | 23.591 | | t-CO2/mil. Yen | |
If the average mileage
11 of one vehicle is 8000 km/year and fuel efficiency
12 is 10 km/l, then annual gasoline consumption for a vehicle will be 800.0 l/year. If gasoline price
13 is 137.8 yen/l, then annual gasoline consumption value is projected at 5.878 billion yen.
On the other hand, since the tank capacity of an FCV is 5 kg of hydrogen and its cruising distance is 650 km, then hydrogen fuel efficiency is 130 km/kg, assuming the same average mileage of 8000 km/year. Hydrogen consumption is 61.54 kg/year. Therefore, if the price of hydrogen is 1080 yen/kg,
14 hydrogen consumption value is estimated at 3.545 billion yen.
Total gasoline consumption for 800,000 units is 640,000 kl, and consumption value is 88.173 billion yen. Hydrogen consumption is 49,230,769 kg, and consumption value is 53.169 billion yen. Thus, CO
2 emissions due to gasoline consumption are 1,486,080 t-CO
215 and CO
2 emissions coefficient is estimated as 23.591 t-CO
2/million yen, considering the commercial margin and transport cost.
4.2 Hydrogen production and input structure
We compare the two hydrogen production technologies: steam reforming and direct decomposition of methane. The upper half of Table
8 shows the amount of material methane, heating methane, CO
2 generated, and carbon in mol when producing 1000 mol of hydrogen.
Table 8
Material balance of hydrogen production (by technology).
Source: Authors’ calculation
Methane for material | 250.000 | 500.000 | mol |
Methane for heating | 46.213 | 41.951 | mol |
Methane, total | 296.213 | 541.951 | mol |
CO2 emissions | 296.213 | 41.951 | mol |
Carbon | 0.000 | 500.000 | mol |
Hydrogen | 1000.000 | 1000.000 | mol |
Methane for material | 4.000 | 8.000 | kg |
Methane for heating | 0.739 | 0.671 | kg |
Methane, total | 4.739 | 8.671 | kg |
CO2 emissions | 13.033 | 1.846 | kg |
Carbon | 0.000 | 6.000 | kg |
Hydrogen | 2.000 | 2.000 | kg |
In steam reforming of methane, according to Eq. (
1), 250 mol of material methane and 46.213 mol of heating methane (in total 296.213 mol) are required for producing 1000 mol of hydrogen with 296.213 mol of CO
2 as emissions. By contrast, in direct decomposition of methane, according to Eq. (
2), 500 mol of material methane and 41.951 mol of methane for heating (in total 541.951 mol) are required for producing 1000 mol of hydrogen.
16 In this process, 41.951 mol of CO
2 is generated due to combustion of methane for heating, and 500 mol of (solid) carbon is generated. For producing the same hydrogen, in direct decomposition of methane, methane required for material and heating is 1.83 times compared with steam reforming of methane, but the amount of CO
2 generated is only 14.2%. The lower half of Table
8 shows the relationship on a mass kg basis.
Table
9 shows the input structure for both manufacturing methods.
17,18 Hydrogen production amounts to 53.169 billion yen, a value obtained from annual consumption of hydrogen at 49,230.8 t for 800 thousand units of FCVs and hydrogen price of 1080 yen/kg (see Table
7). Methane material costs can be calculated from the relationship in Table
8. Capital depreciation is calculated assuming the establishment of 900 hydrogen stations, at a construction cost of 500 million yen per site, with a service life of 20 years. Indirect expenses were obtained from the annual expenses of 20 million yen per station, which is a METI estimate. In both the technologies, transportation margin for hydrogen is required in the case of off-site production but not for on-site production. This transport margin is set as 1% of the total costs, considering the corresponding value for gasoline production.
Table 9
Input structure of hydrogen production (by technology).
Source: Authors’ calculation
Methane input | 6694 | 15,879 | mil. Yen |
Indirect expenses | 18,000 | 18,000 | mil. Yen |
Transport costs | 539 | 539 | mil. Yen |
Other | 5976 | − 3210 | mil. Yen |
Capital depreciation allowance | 22,500 | 22,500 | mil. Yen |
Hydrogen production | 53,169 | 53,169 | mil. Yen |
CO2 emission coefficient | 6.034 | 0.855 | t-CO2/mil. Yen |
Carbon (by-product) | | 59,062 | mil. Yen |
Methane input | 0.1259 | 0.2987 | – |
Indirect expenses | 0.3385 | 0.3385 | – |
Transport costs | 0.0101 | 0.0101 | – |
Other | 0.1124 | − 0.0604 | – |
Capital depreciation allowance | 0.4232 | 0.4232 | – |
Hydrogen production | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | – |
Input ratio is shown in the lower half of Table
9. The coefficient of CO
2 emissions is 0.855 t-CO
2/million yen for direct decomposition of methane and 6.034 t-CO
2/million yen for the methane steam reforming method.
Based on this, the input structure of hydrogen production was estimated. First, total cost is divided into direct expenses such as methane for materials and other indirect expenses. The former is estimated from Table
9, and the latter is introduced by referring to the input structure of the headquarters sector as in the case of FCV in 4.1. Finally, we summed up both and fixed them as sectoral inputs for hydrogen production. The main difference in the input structure of both technologies is the amount of methane used as the raw material and source of heat. Direct decomposition of methane needs approximately double the methane input as in the methane steam reforming method. However, the former has a bigger advantage when CO
2 emissions are lower than the latter. The presence or absence of a transport margin also depends on whether production is on-site or off-site.
4.3 Simulation results
Simulation is conducted for the following cases.
1.
Purchase of gasoline vehicle: Purchase of 53,333 gasoline vehicles per year, at the same price as FCVs
2.
Purchase of FCVs: 53,333 FCVs per year
3.
Gasoline purchase: Annual purchase of gasoline for gasoline vehicles in case 1
4.
Hydrogen purchase: Annual purchase of fuel hydrogen for FCVs in case 2
5.
Substitute gasoline vehicles by FCVs (subtract case 2 from case 1)
6.
Substitute gasoline with hydrogen (subtract case 4 from case 3)
In the analysis below, we used an input–output table aggregated into 188 sectors based on the 2011 national input–output table (benchmark table) and the employment table. As for CO
2 emissions, we obtained the sectoral CO
2 emissions given by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (3EID) corresponding to the 2011 input–output table.
19
Table
10 shows the final demand, induced production amount, gross added value, number of workers, and CO
2 emissions for cases 1 to 6, when hydrogen is produced by the methane steam reforming method. Further, CO
2 emissions indicate these industries (endogenous sectors) and household sectors.
Table 10
Hydrogen production by steam reforming of methane method.
Source: Authors’ calculation
Final demand | 197,140 | 197,140 | 5878 | 3545 | 0 | − 2334 | mil. Yen |
Production | 509,121 | 497,773 | 7384 | 4742 | − 11,347 | − 2642 | mil. Yen |
Gross added value | 165,861 | 156,998 | 2788 | 3288 | − 8863 | 500 | mil. Yen |
Employment | 25,374 | 25,743 | 339 | 110 | 369 | − 229 | Persons |
CO2 emissions | 509,445 | 685,733 | 114,074 | 22,891 | 176,288 | − 91,183 | t-CO2 |
Industrial sector | 509,445 | 685,733 | 15,002 | 22,891 | 176,288 | 7889 | t-CO2 |
Household sector | 0 | 0 | 99,072 | 0 | 0 | − 99,072 | t-CO2 |
Although final demand for gasoline vehicles and FCVs is the same, the economic ripple effect of FCVs is relatively small compared to gasoline vehicles. Production of gasoline vehicles requires more automobile parts, and the sector has a greater ripple effect. On the other hand, FCVs use more electrical components, such as electric machinery, electronic parts, and industrial machinery. For this reason, the effect of substitution from gasoline vehicles to FCVs, in case 5, is negative for production, added value, although a positive effect is obtained for employment. It has the impact of increasing CO2 emissions by 17,288 t-CO2.
Gasoline consumption value in using the vehicle is higher than hydrogen consumption, under the assumed prices. Therefore, replacing energy from gasoline with hydrogen reduces final demand, resulting in a negative impact on production and employment, even though the effect on value-added is positive. However, in this case, hydrogen production induces more CO2 emissions than gasoline production; thus, CO2 emissions increase in the industrial sector by 7899 t-CO2. Additionally, in the household sector, gasoline consumption directly results in 99,072 t-CO2 emissions, but if replaced with hydrogen, the same amount of CO2 reduction is achieved. Overall, these amounts are reduced by 91,183 t-CO2.
Table
11 shows similar simulation results when hydrogen is produced by direct decomposition of methane. The direction of the effect in each case is almost the same as in Table
10, except CO
2 emissions in the fuel substitution of the industrial sector. Carbon dioxide emissions increase by 176,288 t-CO
2 when the impact of vehicle substitution decreases by 9372 t-CO
2 in the industrial sector due to fuel substitution, and by 99,072 t-CO
2 in the household sector, resulting in total reduction of 108,444 t-CO
2. Compared with Table
10, even though the effect of the household sector remains dominant, additional reduction is achieved in the industrial sector.
Table 11
Hydrogen production by direct decomposition of methane method.
Source: Authors’ calculation
Final demand | 197,140 | 197,140 | 5878 | 3545 | 0 | − 2334 | mil. Yen |
Production | 509,121 | 497,773 | 7384 | 5653 | − 11,347 | − 1731 | mil. Yen |
Gross added value | 165,861 | 156,998 | 2788 | 2977 | − 8863 | 189 | mil. Yen |
Employment | 25,374 | 25,743 | 339 | 136 | 369 | − 202 | Persons |
CO2 emissions | 509,445 | 685,733 | 114,074 | 5630 | 176,288 | − 108,444 | t-CO2 |
Industrial sector | 509,445 | 685,733 | 15,002 | 5630 | 176,288 | − 9372 | t-CO2 |
Household sector | 0 | 0 | 99,072 | 0 | 0 | − 99,072 | t-CO2 |
In Tables
10 and
11, we evaluate the production effect of replacing gasoline vehicles by FCVs and the changing effect of fuel purchase per year required for using vehicles. However, cars, as consumer durable goods, can be used for a certain period of time, during which fuel purchase is required. According to the statistics given by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, a passenger car’s average life span in 2017 was 12.9 years. Thus, we assume that the car purchased will be used for a slightly longer period of 15 years. We obtained the effect of CO
2 emissions for 15 years of vehicle and fuel substitution, as summarized in Table
12.
Table 12
Hydrogen production by direct decomposition of methane: Indicative of accumulated effect only (Unit: t-CO2).
Source: Authors’ calculation
1 | 176,288 | − 9372 | − 99,072 | 67,844 |
2 | 176,288 | − 18,744 | − 198,144 | − 40,600 |
3 | 176,288 | − 28,116 | − 297,216 | − 149,044 |
4 | 176,288 | − 37,488 | − 396,288 | − 257,488 |
5 | 176,288 | − 46,860 | − 495,360 | − 365,932 |
6 | 176,288 | − 56,232 | − 594,432 | − 474,134 |
7 | 176,288 | − 65,604 | − 693,504 | − 582,820 |
8 | 176,288 | − 74,976 | − 792,576 | − 691,264 |
9 | 176,288 | − 84,348 | − 891,648 | − 799,708 |
10 | 176,288 | − 93,720 | − 990,720 | − 908,152 |
11 | 176,288 | − 103,092 | − 1,089,792 | − 1,016,596 |
12 | 176,288 | − 112,464 | − 1,188,864 | − 1,125,040 |
13 | 176,288 | − 121,836 | − 1,287,936 | − 1,233,484 |
14 | 176,288 | − 131,208 | − 1,387,008 | − 1,341,928 |
15 | 176,288 | − 140,580 | − 1,486,080 | − 1,450,372 |
Table
12 shows the calculation for hydrogen production using the method of direct decomposition of methane. According to this table, CO
2 emissions increased by 176,288 t-CO
2 only in the first year due to vehicle substitution; however, CO
2 reduction for fuel substitution, which occurs when using the car for 15 years, is 9372 t-CO
2 per year in the industrial sector, 99,072 t-CO
2 in the household sector, and the cumulative effects of 15 years show 140,580 t-CO
2 and 1,486,080 t-CO
2, respectively, amounting to 1,450,372 t-CO
2.
This effect varies with the choice of hydrogen production technology. Table
13 shows the kind of change that occurs depending on the ratio of the two hydrogen production technologies. This table shows values for on-site production. Thus, when the ratio of hydrogen production for direct decomposition of methane is 0% (hydrogen produced by methane steam reforming method), 20% case, 40% case, 60% case, 80% case, and 100% (hydrogen produced by direct decomposition of methane only), the cumulative effect of CO
2 emissions in the 15th year, as shown in Table
12, is compared.
Table 13
Hydrogen production rate and changes in CO2 emissions by direct decomposition of methane (on-site) (Unit: t-CO2).
Source: Authors’ calculation
Vehicle substitution | 176,288 | 176,288 | 176,288 | 176,288 | 176,288 | 176,288 |
Fuel substitution (industry) | 118,331 | 66,549 | 14,767 | − 37,015 | − 88,798 | − 140,580 |
Industry, total | 294,619 | 242,837 | 191,054 | 139,272 | 87,490 | 35,708 |
Fuel substitution (household) | − 1,486,080 | − 1,486,080 | − 1,486,080 | − 1,486,080 | − 1,486,080 | − 1,486,080 |
Total | − 1,191,461 | − 1,243,243 | − 1,295,026 | − 1,346,808 | − 1,398,590 | − 1,450,372 |
Vehicle substitution | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Fuel substitution (industry) | 1.000 | 0.562 | 0.125 | − 0.313 | − 0.750 | − 1.188 |
Industry, total | 1.000 | 0.824 | 0.648 | 0.473 | 0.297 | 0.121 |
Fuel substitution (household) | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
Total | 1.000 | 1.043 | 1.087 | 1.130 | 1.174 | 1.217 |
In Table
13, the total CO
2 reduction effect of hydrogen production by methane steam reforming method only (0%) was 1,191,461 t-CO
2, whereas in the case of hydrogen production by direct decomposition of methane method only (100%), it was 1,450,372 t-CO
2. The latter reduces about 21.7% more CO
2 emissions than the former.
This effect can be divided into the impact of vehicle substitution and effects of fuel substitution. The effect of fuel substitution can be further divided into industrial sector and household sector. Among them, the most effective CO2 reduction method is the effect of fuel substitution in the household sector, and this effect will be constant at 1,486,080 t-CO2, regardless of the hydrogen production technology.
Furthermore, the effect of vehicle substitution is constant but increasing at 176,288 t-CO2 for the choice of hydrogen production technology. The effect varies strongly for fuel substitution in the industrial sector, from 118,331 t-CO2, increasing in the case of hydrogen production only with methane steam reforming (0%), to 140,580 t-CO2, decreasing in the case of hydrogen production by the decomposition method (100%).
Table
14 shows the accumulated effect of the selection of on-site or off-site hydrogen production, as well as the selection of two production technologies. Changes in CO
2 emissions from vehicle substitution and fuel substitution occurring in the industrial and household sectors are shown by the selection of hydrogen production technology (0% or 100%). The values for the three rows at the bottom of the column for 100%, which shows the case of direct decomposition of methane (on-site production), correspond to CO
2 emissions in the 15th-year effect in Table
12.
Table 14
Differences in CO2 emissions between on-site and off-site hydrogen production (Unit: t-CO2).
Source: Authors’ calculation
Agriculture, forestry, and fishery | − 1 | − 2 | − 1 | − 0 | − 1 | − 2 | − 1 | − 0 |
Mining | 3357 | − 628 | 3357 | − 528 | 3357 | − 628 | 3357 | − 527 |
Hydrogen | 0 | 320,822 | 0 | 45,436 | 0 | 320,822 | 0 | 45,436 |
Petroleum products | 1575 | − 161,062 | 1575 | − 160,244 | 1575 | − 160,968 | 1575 | − 160,150 |
Gasoline vehicles | − 7903 | 0 | − 7903 | 0 | − 7903 | 0 | − 7903 | 0 |
FCVs | 7903 | 0 | 7903 | 0 | 7903 | 0 | 7903 | 0 |
Other manufacturing industries | 151,759 | − 1805 | 151,759 | − 368 | 151,759 | − 1767 | 151,759 | − 330 |
Electricity | 15,803 | − 26,949 | 15,803 | − 22,374 | 15,803 | − 26,801 | 15,803 | − 22,226 |
City gas | − 99 | 4863 | − 99 | 11,709 | − 99 | 4863 | − 99 | 11,710 |
Other tertiary industries | 3894 | − 16,907 | 3894 | − 14,211 | 3894 | − 14,819 | 3894 | − 12,123 |
Industrial sector total | 176,288 | 118,331 | 176,288 | − 140,580 | 176,288 | 120,700 | 176,288 | − 138,211 |
Household sector | 0 | − 1,486,080 | 0 | − 1,486,080 | 0 | − 1,486,080 | 0 | − 1,486,080 |
Total | 176,288 | − 1,367,749 | 176,288 | − 1,626,660 | 176,288 | − 1,365,380 | 176,288 | − 1,624,291 |
It is evident here that CO2 emissions in the hydrogen production sector for both fuel on-site and off-site are about seven times more in the methane steam reforming method (320,822 t-CO2) than in the methane direct decomposition method (45,436 t-CO2). Although fuel substitution in the industrial sector augments 118,331 t-CO2 in the methane steam reforming method, it saves 140,580 t-CO2 in direct decomposition method.
In off-site hydrogen production, hydrogen has to be transported to the hydrogen refueling station, so that induced production increases and CO
2 emissions also rise. As a result, the saving effect of CO
2 emissions will lower, according to the results in Table
14.