Simulation-Based Predictive Analytics for Construction Safety Incidents

Productivity loss is one key concern in managing a construction project. This issue is brought by many influencing project factors and is often discussed in the literature. However, isolating the magnitude of productivity loss due to health and safety incidents is yet understudied. This productivity loss is briefly defined as the construction productivity safety incidence rate (CPSIR). A deeper understanding of CPSIR is relevant because when workers are injured, there is a direct loss in productivity due to the recovery period from the injury, fluctuations in workforce allocation, training and rehiring for the vacated skilled position, deflated work morale, and work stoppage. This phenomenon also creates a feedback mechanism as the management continually updates the construction plan based on the risk events that may happen. One approach which can tackle these project dynamics and CPSIR is through simulation. However, simulating CPSIR is overwhelming in practice mainly due to the following reasons: (1) poor understanding of which construction project metrics are accurate predictors of a specific safety outcome on the level of analysis required; (2) metrics for potential precursors of incidents as indicated in literature are rarely collected and if they are, it is fragmented within various departments of an organization; and (3) lack of understanding on the complex interrelationships of different attributes affecting incident rates. This high degree of complexity for a simulation study necessitates a much more sophisticated tool such as high-level architecture (HLA). In the present study, a simulation-based approach through developing a safety federate is used to explore the relationship between construction scenarios that affect incident rates. This paper aims to contribute to understanding the dynamics between construction work package attributes and construction safety. This is demonstrated through the development of the construction safety incident federate and how it interoperates with other federates of a construction project.