Simulation of Effects of Climatic Change on Cauliflower Production

The impact of climatic changes on summer cauliflower production in northern Europe has been assessed using a dynamic crop simulation model. The sensitivity of the model to changes in temperature, global radiation and atmospheric CO₂ concentration was analyzed using historical weather data from several sites in Europe. Effects of varying the transplanting date and plant density were also studied.Model simulations indicate that increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration may decrease the risk of loose heads in cauliflower. Higher CO₂ concentrations may also enable a higher plant density than is currently used without detrimental effects on curd size and quality. Temperature was found to strongly affect the timing of cauliflower production, whereas the quality in terms of curd density is determined by a wider range of environmental conditions. In the model curd density is affected mainly by the balance between the source of and sink for assimilates. Plant density, atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature were found to be the most important variables affecting the source-sink balance.