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Telecommunication Systems
Published in: Telecommunication Systems 1/2017

31-01-2017

Spectrum forecasting for IMT-Advanced

Authors: Leandro Carísio Fernandes, Agostinho Linhares, Luciana Rabelo Novato Ferreira

Published in: Telecommunication Systems | Issue 1/2017

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Abstract

The exponential increase of mobile traffic will continue to be a reality in the next years. To support it, some actions should be taken: the current frequency bands can be refarmed, the number of base stations can be increased, the technologies can evolve etc. Even with all of these, the spectrum in use will not be enough. Therefore, it will be necessary to allocate more spectrum, so the new expected traffic can properly flow. However, the spectrum is a scarce resource. Hence, from a spectrum management point of view, it is not suitable to allocate a huge amount of spectrum without planning. One question arises: how much spectrum is necessary to support all this new traffic that will emerge? This paper answers this question.
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Footnotes
1
Some of these bands are allocated for fixed and mobile services, being designated for different telecommunication services. Among them is the personal mobile service, which is the name of the mobile service provided through cellular systems in Brazil.
 
2
In 2015, Brazil had 897 MHz (for downlink, uplink and guard band) designated for personal mobile services. However, there was in use only 210 MHz for downlink (equivalent to 420 MHz for downlink and uplink) in São Paulo. Some frequency bands do not have any licensed mobile operators associated with (e.g. 3.4–3.6 GHz). And the others, although there are mobile operators allowed to use them, they were not in use yet (e.g. 718–748 MHz and 773–803 MHz).
 
3
The simple way to estimate the quantity of base stations in the next years is using a polynomial regression, which will find a polynomial that best fits (in a least-squares sense) the data. Considering a second-order polynomial, the number of base stations between the years 2000 and 2015 can be described by the equation \(BS = 14.564426 \times y^2 -58138.5312 \times y + 58019863\), where BS is the number of base stations at the end of the year y. The coefficient of determination of this polynomial is \(R^2 = 0.979\), which indicates that the polynomial fits the data with good accuracy. The number of base stations at the end of 2016–2020 were predicted using this equation.
 
Literature
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Cisco. (2016). Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global mobile data traffic forecast update, 2015–2020. White paper, Cisco.
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Metadata
Title
Spectrum forecasting for IMT-Advanced
Authors
Leandro Carísio Fernandes
Agostinho Linhares
Luciana Rabelo Novato Ferreira
Publication date
31-01-2017
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Telecommunication Systems / Issue 1/2017
Print ISSN: 1018-4864
Electronic ISSN: 1572-9451
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11235-017-0276-5

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