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25-04-2017 | Original Article

Stock Market Integration Dynamics and its Determinants in the East Asian Economic Community Region

Authors: Sanjay Sehgal, Piyush Pandey, Florent Deisting

Published in: Journal of Quantitative Economics | Issue 2/2018

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Abstract

We study the dynamic nature of equity market integration for the ASEAN+6 countries referred as East Asia Economic Community (EAEC) Region from January 1999 to March 2015. Copula GARCH models have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of equity market integration. Empirical results show that the sample countries exhibit varying degrees of integration with the Asian benchmark. The 6 countries that form part of EAEC but not ASEAN (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and New Zealand) exhibit high level of integration followed by ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) members. Equity portfolio flows within the EAEC region reconfirm the findings based on price data that regional integration is strengthening over time. Further, results from the panel data analysis show that fiscal position, stock market performance, external position, governance and trade linkages seem to be the fundamental drivers of equity market integration in this region. The paper contributes to the International Finance literature, especially dealing with regional economic blocs by providing strong arguments for expanding the ASEAN Economic Community region in the near future to a more economically viable East Asian Economic Community region.

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According to Asian Economic Integration Monitor (AEIM) launched by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in July 2012, Regional Integration is a process leading to greater interdependence in such areas as trade, investment and finance.

Financial integration is achieved when all economic agents in the financial markets face identical rules and have equal access to financial instruments or services in these markets and are treated equally (Baele et al. 2004).

Financial market integration creates powerful internal pressures for financial reform and development by encouraging further financial liberalization and upgrading of financial capacity thereby contributing to economic growth. See Levine (2001), Giannetti et al. (2002), Baele et al. (2004), De Brouwer and Corbett (2005), Calvi (2010) for further details.

Unilateral liberalized approach is whereby country makes tariff reductions independently and without reciprocal action by other countries.Source: International Trade Agreements by Douglas A Irwin http://www.econlib.org/library.

ASEAN was created with the signing of Bangkok Declaration byIndonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Subsequently the ASEAN bloc grew with the addition of Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia (in the order of their entry). The 10 ASEAN members plus the 3members i.e Japan, China and South Korea constitutes the ASEAN+3 bloc.The \(2^{\mathrm{nd}}\) East Asian Summit (EAS) was held Cebu in January 2007 wherein ten ASEAN members and six countries including China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand participated. Japan regards this ASEAN+6 (EAS group) as an appropriate group for East Asia’s trade and investment cooperation.

Financial Integration in a region is a strategic choice to enhance trade and firm cooperation within a geographical area (Boubakri and Guillaumin 2015).

AEC will provide an economic region with smooth functioning regional financial system with more liberalized capital account regimes and interconnected capital markets facilitating greater trade and investment flows in the region.

Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement conceptualized among countries on both side of the Pacific (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, USA and Vietnam). But, new USA govt. after coming to power decided to withdraw from the agreement on January 2017.

Economic integration is the unification of economic policies between different countries through the partial or full abolition of tariff and non-tariff restrictions on trade taking place among them prior to their integration. Source: Wikipedia.

Economic and financial integration are mutually enforcing each other while empirical evidence seems to suggest that economic integration provides a channel for financial integration (Phylaktis and Ravazzolo 2001).

Feldstein and Horioka (1980) measure the degree of financial integration using the correlation of domestic saving with investment rates.

For a survey of the literatures and various indicators, see Cavoli et al. (2004), Baele et al. (2004), Poonpatpibul et al. (2006).

For survey of literature using these indicators, see Yu et al. (2010), Narayan et al. (2014), Boubakri and Guillaumin (2015), Chien et al. (2015), Gupta et al. (2015).

Previous day observation is used in case of missing observations assuming that the data were unavailable because of national holidays or any other reasons. Two day rolling average to account for time synchronization of different markets lying in different time zones has not been considered in this study due to severe autocorrelation problem as highlighted by Chiang et al. (2007).

Refer Federal Reserve History of timeline of the Asian Financial Crises (July 1997–December 1998). www.federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/51.

MSCI indices were selected as they are value weighted indices and have a broad coverage of markets in terms of market capitalization and are compiled with similar criteria and hence are homogenous for cross country comparison. They are thus widely employed in literature.

Data for the annual portfolio equity inflows is available for mainland China (investments in mainland China from various countries) but data for the annual portfolio equity outflows is not available for mainland China (equity portfolio investments from mainland China into various countries) as it does not participate in this IMF CPIS survey (source of this dataset) as an investor. Hence, Hong Kong SAR(Special Administrative Region) China is taken in lieu of mainland China for constructing portfolio equity outflows (equity portfolio investments from Hong Kong into various countries is available) as Hong Kong is the gateway for Chinese Outbound Investment.

The global category containing variables such as world interest rate, world liquidity, world industrial production, world growth opportunities, world index returns, oil/gold price changes, market/term/default premium, and volatility of world returns have been omitted in our analysis owing to the fact that they do not vary for our cross section data (countries) and hence pose estimation problem while employing panel data technique. However, we believe that our global market proxy (US returns) used in the AR(1) based mean equation accounts for the impact of these factors on the country returns.

Results of Correlation tests are not reported due to brevity of space. These are available on request from the authors.

The factors have been named in accordance with the underlying explanatory variables constituting the same.

Mashal et al. (2003) show that the empirical fit of the t-copula is generally superior to that of the Gaussian copula.

Annualization has been done assuming 250 trading days in an year.

Unit root test results are not reported due to brevity of space. These are available on request from the authors.

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Title: Stock Market Integration Dynamics and its Determinants in the East Asian Economic Community Region
Authors: Sanjay Sehgal
Piyush Pandey
Florent Deisting
Publication date: 25-04-2017
Publisher: Springer India
Published in: Journal of Quantitative Economics / Issue 2/2018
Print ISSN: 0971-1554
Electronic ISSN: 2364-1045
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-017-0090-7

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