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2013 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

47. Study of Chinese Basic Pension Based on the Leslie Model

Authors : Lingqing Fang, Weiran Lin, Quan Pan

Published in: Informatics and Management Science IV

Publisher: Springer London

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Abstract

This paper is based on the Leslie model to predict the population age structure from 2008 to 2030, to get the population over the age of 60. Choosing two factors, the population over the age of 60 and the GDP, to precede simple linear regression of average basic annuities, the basic annuities scale from 2010 to 2030 will be forecasted. In consideration of the inevitable devaluation brings from inflation, calculated that the present value of the average basic annuities in different inflation rates are not the same, it explains the forecasted basic annuities scale is uncertain. As to the dynamic changes of basic annuities, combining the basic situation, we put forward feasible methods for the “Endowment difficult” problem.

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Metadata
Title
Study of Chinese Basic Pension Based on the Leslie Model
Authors
Lingqing Fang
Weiran Lin
Quan Pan
Copyright Year
2013
Publisher
Springer London
Book
Informatics and Management Science IV

Print ISBN: 978-1-4471-4792-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-1-4471-4793-0

Copyright Year: 2013

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4793-0_47

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