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Published in: Social Indicators Research 3/2020

18-05-2020 | Original Research

The Cost of Unemployment from a Social Welfare Approach: The Case of Spain and Its Regions

Authors: Lucía Gorjón, Sara de la Rica, Antonio Villar

Published in: Social Indicators Research | Issue 3/2020

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Abstract

This paper proposes a protocol to measure the cost of unemployment by taking into account three different aspects: incidence, severity and hysteresis. Incidence refers to the conventional unemployment rate; severity takes into account both unemployment duration and the associated income loss; and hysteresis refers to the probability of remaining unemployed. The cost of unemployment is regarded as a welfare loss, which is measured by a utilitarian social welfare function whose arguments are the individual disutilities of unemployed workers. Each individual disutility is modelled as a function of income loss, unemployment duration and hysteresis. The resulting formula is simple and easy to understand and implement. We apply this assessment protocol to the Spanish labour market, focusing on the regional differences and using the official register of unemployed workers compiled by the Public Employment Service.

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Appendix
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Footnotes
1
There is some parallelism with the paper by Jones and Klenow (2016) in the use of a micro approach to address the problem and a multidimensional indicator that goes beyond the unemployment rate (beyond the GDP in their case).
 
2
See Winter-Ebmer (2016) and de la Rica and Gorjón (2017) for a discussion. Recall that the United Nations have for many years been using the rate of long-term unemployment as a proxy for (lack of) social inclusion.
 
3
According to the ILO definition, a person is unemployed if (1) he/she does not have a job, (2) is actively looking for a job, and (3) is available to start a new job in at most 15 days. Being registered in the Public Employment Services is not a necessary condition to be classified as unemployed by the ILO standards. Some unemployed, particularly if they have exhausted unemployment benefits, may not have incentives to register/renew their condition of unemployed in the SPES and so they would not appear in our database. Hence, to the extent that the total pool of unemployed workers by ILO standards is larger than the pool of workers registered in the SPES as unemployed, we are infra valuating the size of the pool of unemployed workers. Let us stress, however, that those differences have little impact on regional comparisons because of the symmetry of such disparities.
 
4
We have run robustness checks changing the selected month and the patterns are barely the same.
 
5
Following the recommendation of López-Labordaa et al. (2017), we use a Generalized Linear Model to estimate the predicted wage in order to avoid bias in the estimation results due to the retransformation problem from logarithms to wage levels.
 
6
The monthly unemployment benefit is calculated as 70% of the monthly wage for the first 180 days and 50% of the monthly wage for the following months in which it is received. It is upper and lower bounded at €1411.83 and €501.98, respectively. The amount corresponding to social subsidies is 75%, 80% or 107% of the Multiple Effects Public Income Indicator (set at €532,51) depending on the type.
 
7
As mentioned before, those figures are often lower than the conventional unemployment rates measured via the standard survey (Encuesta de Población Activa, in Spain). The difference for the whole country is some five points, up from 18.17 to 23.78%, and the coefficient of correlation between the two series is 0.8.
 
8
It is worth mentioning that the choice of coefficient 2 in Goerlich and Miñano (2018) is practically the same as that obtained from using the probability of remaining unemployed.
 
9
Note that, simple as it is, this model mimics what is a standard behaviour: the 16 h available in each working day (24 minus 8 devoted to rest) are equally split into 8 h of work and 8 hours of leisure.
 
10
Needless to say, this function depends on the units in which wages and unemployment duration are measured.
 
11
This parameter corresponds to the Arrow–Pratt coefficient of relative risk aversion for concave functions (e.g. Pratt 2013). This is the format adopted by Atkinson (1970) for his reference welfare function, by letting \(\varepsilon = - \nu\).
 
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Metadata
Title
The Cost of Unemployment from a Social Welfare Approach: The Case of Spain and Its Regions
Authors
Lucía Gorjón
Sara de la Rica
Antonio Villar
Publication date
18-05-2020
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
Social Indicators Research / Issue 3/2020
Print ISSN: 0303-8300
Electronic ISSN: 1573-0921
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02360-5

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