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Quality & Quantity
Published in: Quality & Quantity 6/2019

01-06-2019

The economic Gordian Knot of Brexit: an East and Southeast Asian perspective

Authors: Ruiz Estrada Mario Arturo, Evangelos Koutronas, Donghyun Park

Published in: Quality & Quantity | Issue 6/2019

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of Brexit. The International Financial-Trade Exchange Leaking Index (TIFTEL-Index) attempts to analyze and compare pre-Brexit versus post-Brexit international trade and international financial transactions between East and Southeast Asia and Europe. TIFTEL-index is based on three main variables, namely (1) international trade exchange marginal rate (∆Τ′), (2) international financial exchange marginal rate (∆σ′), and (3) GDP in real prices growth marginal rate (∆γ). Simulation findings indicate that Brexit will have only a limited negative effect on the world economy. In addition, Brexit will affect East Asia more than Southeast Asia region.
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Footnotes
1
The Maastricht bill finally passed through the Commons on 23 July 1993 and the courts dismissed Rees-Mogg’s judicial review challenge a week later. See Bowcott (2018).
 
2
Algeria left the European Communities (EC), as the European Union was previously known, upon becoming independent from France in 1962, as did Greenland in 1985 after achieving autonomy within Denmark, but neither of these cases is likely to shed much light on the impact of Brexit. See Sampson (2017).
 
3
In the case of no-deal with the EU, UK’s trading arrangements would revert to WTO rules. See HM Government (2016a).
 
4
The EU is in negotiations with Japan over a trade agreement. The EU is also in negotiations with the US over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
 
5
Britain’s accession to the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1973 ended Canada’s, Australia’s, New Zealand’s and South Africa’s preferential access. See McKenzie (2013).
 
6
The economies in the region affected by common external demand shock, rather than country-specific factors.
 
7
Negotiations for a region-to-region FTA were launched in 2007 but were paused in 2009 due to the heterogeneity of ASEAN member states.
 
8
The actual trade balance may be less due to ‘Rotterdam effect’. The Rotterdam effect (also known as the Rotterdam-Antwerp effect) refers to the inflation of trade statistics due to the inclusion of quasi-transit goods. See Whyman and Petrescu (2017).
 
9
The classification of financial services sector varies among agencies. WTO-UNCTAD-ITC trade in services database, based on OECD, IMF, EUROSTAT, UNSD and national data, June 2018.
 
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Metadata
Title
The economic Gordian Knot of Brexit: an East and Southeast Asian perspective
Authors
Ruiz Estrada Mario Arturo
Evangelos Koutronas
Donghyun Park
Publication date
01-06-2019
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
Quality & Quantity / Issue 6/2019
Print ISSN: 0033-5177
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7845
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00895-5

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