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16-10-2020

The epistemic uncertainty of COVID-19: failures and successes of heuristics in clinical decision-making

Author: Riccardo Viale

Published in: Mind & Society | Issue 1/2021

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Abstract

The brief article deals with the following questions: Was the adaptive toolbox of heuristics ecologically rational and specifically accurate in the initial stages of COVID-19, which was characterized by epistemic uncertainty? In other words, in dealing with COVID-19 did the environmental structural variables allow the success of a given heuristic strategy?

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It is not characterized by fundamental uncertainty, as maintained by Jani (2020).

Reference to this evidence: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15387836/covid19.

Other behavioral phenomena can explain the ecologically irrational decisions of leader as Trump: optimistic bias for the future; illusion of control of risk variables; wishful thinking that the reality will be as he prefers it must be; status quo bias not to change the current government plans and programmes; present day bias and time discounting because the minor current economic losses from lockdown have more value that the bigger future economic losses without lockdown (not to consider the deaths).

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Jani A (2020) Preparing for COVID-19’s aftermath: simple steps to address social determinants of health”. J Royal Soc Med. https://doi.org/10.1177/0141076820921655CrossRef

Savage LJ (1954) The Foundations of Statistics. Dover, New York

Todd, PM, Gigerenzer, G., and ABC Res, Group (2011) Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World. Oxford University Press, New York

Tversky A (1972) Elimination by aspects: a theory of choice. Pschol Rev 79:281–299CrossRef

Tang N, Li D, Wang X, Sun Z (2020) Abnormal coagulation parameters are associated with poor prognosis in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia. J Thrombosis and Haemostasis. https://doi.org/10.1111/jth.14768CrossRef

Viale R (2020) Handbook on Bounded Rationality. Routledge, LondonCrossRef

Wang BS, Xiaoying Gu, Guan L, Wei Y, Li H, Xudong Wu, Jiuyang Xu, Shengjin Tu, Zhang Yi, Chen H, Cao B (2020) Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet 395:1054–1062. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3CrossRef

Title: The epistemic uncertainty of COVID-19: failures and successes of heuristics in clinical decision-making
Author: Riccardo Viale
Publication date: 16-10-2020
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in: Mind & Society / Issue 1/2021
Print ISSN: 1593-7879
Electronic ISSN: 1860-1839
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11299-020-00262-0

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