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Published in: Political Behavior 2/2023

13-05-2021 | Original Paper

The Political Consequences of an Optimistic Personality

Authors: Carey Stapleton, Jacob Oliver, Jennifer Wolak

Published in: Political Behavior | Issue 2/2023

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Abstract

Optimists hope for the best possible outcome, while pessimists plan for the worst. We investigate how people’s predispositions to be optimistic versus pessimistic shape how they approach politics. We argue that an optimistic personality is a psychological resource that contributes to the practice of good citizenship behaviors. Using responses from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project and the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we demonstrate that people with optimistic personalities are more politically engaged and participatory than those with pessimistic dispositions. Optimists express more positive views of the American people, the government, and national symbols as well. Because optimists have a more positive outlook toward the nation’s future, they help contribute to levels of diffuse support for government and its symbols. While we might worry that optimists hold an unrealistic view of the political world, we find little evidence that dispositional optimism is associated with less accurate perceptions of political realities.

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Appendix
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Footnotes
1
We confirm this within our survey data as well, where we find that levels of dispositional optimism in the 2018 CCES are not predicted by recent positive or negative life experiences like landing a raise, losing a job, or getting divorced. We report these results in the Supplemental Appendix.
 
2
Replication data can be accessed at https://​doi.​org/​10.​7910/​DVN/​5ZAFIF.
 
3
Question wordings for the items are reported in the Supplemental Appendix.
 
4
The items scale together well, with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.86 in the CCAP survey and an alpha of 0.87 in the CCES survey. Exploratory factor analyses reported in the supplemental appendix affirm a single factor solution.
 
5
Predicted values are generated using the margins command in Stata 14. We report effect sizes as the change in the level of the outcome variable that results from moving from the mean level of optimism to a level of optimism that is one standard deviation above the mean (a 0.22 increase in optimism in the CCAP data and a 0.20 point increase in optimism in the CCES data). All other predictors are held at their means. In the supplemental appendix we report predicted outcomes at the minimum and maximum of dispositional optimism.
 
6
Niven (2000) relies on items on people’s expectations for experiencing positive and negative life events, like being in a car accident or winning an award. Uslaner (2002) uses various items to proxy for optimism, including views about whether life for the average person is getting better and expectations about life in the future.
 
7
In the supplemental appendix, we report correlation tables that indicate optimism is only weakly correlated with views about the direction of the country (r = 0.11) and patriotism (r = 0.17).
 
8
Uslaner (2002) argues that optimism and trust remain substantively different concepts. He also shows that trust is better described as a consequence of optimism rather than a cause of it.
 
9
We find dispositional optimism is only weakly associated with enthusiasm toward the campaign (r = 0.09). In the supplemental appendix, we show that the effects of optimism are robust to controls for the specific emotional reactions to the presidential candidates.
 
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Metadata
Title
The Political Consequences of an Optimistic Personality
Authors
Carey Stapleton
Jacob Oliver
Jennifer Wolak
Publication date
13-05-2021
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Political Behavior / Issue 2/2023
Print ISSN: 0190-9320
Electronic ISSN: 1573-6687
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-021-09717-7

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