A Comparative Study of Stochastic Models for Seismic Hazard Estimation

Different stochastic models have been developed over the years for the prediction of earthquake occurrences. The Mathematical rigor and the extent of input data requirement increase as the stochastic models used in the description of the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of earthquake occurrences get more realistic. In this study, a review of the most widely used stochastic models, namely: Poisson, extreme value and Markov are presented briefly, together with the random field model proposed by the authors. The shortcomings of each model are discussed. The seismic hazard predictions obtained from these models are then compared among themselves based on the data recorded along the most active portion of the North Anatolian fault zone.