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1996 | Book

A Comparative Study of Stochastic Models for Seismic Hazard Estimation Read chapter Read first chapter

Land-Based and Marine Hazards

Scientific and Management Issues

Editors: M. I. El-Sabh, S. Venkatesh, H. Denis, T. S. Murty

Publisher: Springer Netherlands

Book Series : Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research

Included in: Professional Book Archive

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About this book

Causes of major disasters are many and diverse, and the risks associated with them endanger human lives, property, the environment, the economy, and even the country's political and social well-being. It is clear that, with rapid population growth, environmental degradation, climate change, poorly regulated industries, and continued economic uncertainty, the chances are that communities may become more vulnerable to disasters. The dramatic losses in recent years from volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and landslides, wildland fires, droughts and floods, cyclones and storm surges attest to the fact that we are still a long way from applying even the knowledge we have today to make communities safe. Tackling this problem requires a sound evaluation of disaster mitigation policies and tools.
As a contribution to the International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (IDNDR), the fifth international symposium HAZARDS-93 was held in Qingdao, P.R. China on 29 August - 3 September, 1993. China is a country frequently hit by almost all kinds of disasters. Its history is one of combating natural disasters and working towards their reduction. More than 250 scientists, engineers and government officials from 20 countries met for the purpose of engaging in a free exchange of knowledge, experience and ideas regarding the scientific and socio-economic aspects of mitigating losses from natural and man- made disasters. A total of 180 papers were presented at 28 sessions covering a very broad range of topics related to disaster management. The twenty-one articles included in this book deal with the scientific and management issues of land-based and marine hazards which cause the most severe economic losses, deaths and environmental degradation in many parts of the world. The book also includes specific recommendations addressed to the IDNDR Secretariat, national governments and scientific experts to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of disaster management. Thus, Land-Based and Marine Hazards: Scientific and Management Issues forms an excellent reference for scientists, engineers, policy-makers and the insurance industry.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter

Scientific Issues

Frontmatter
A Comparative Study of Stochastic Models for Seismic Hazard Estimation
Abstract
Different stochastic models have been developed over the years for the prediction of earthquake occurrences. The Mathematical rigor and the extent of input data requirement increase as the stochastic models used in the description of the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of earthquake occurrences get more realistic. In this study, a review of the most widely used stochastic models, namely: Poisson, extreme value and Markov are presented briefly, together with the random field model proposed by the authors. The shortcomings of each model are discussed. The seismic hazard predictions obtained from these models are then compared among themselves based on the data recorded along the most active portion of the North Anatolian fault zone.
M. Semih Yücemen, Ayşen Akkaya
Data Base for Seismic Risk Assessment in Cusco, Peru
Abstract
Results from many efforts to better understand the nature of ground motions and the seismic behavior of structures in Cusco, Peru, give now the possibility to combine several sources of information to produce estimates of seismic hazard and risk. A model is presented, which estimates expected damage based on geotechnical characteristics and intensity-damage relations derived for several types of buildings representative of Cusco’s constructions. The study area was divided into smaller sections covering the whole city. This information, along with the geographic distribution of soil types and construction density, allows computation of expected losses during a given event for sites distributed throughout the city.
Mario A. Candia-Gallegos, INGECO, S.R. LTDA., Kenneth F. Sprenke, J. Carlos Perez
Reducing the Seismic Vulnerability of Earth Buildings
Abstract
In view of the world housing shortage, and the economic and technological barriers which hamper efforts to alleviate it, the development of traditional techniques of earth construction may be seen as desirable. Certainly earth buildings may be constructed extremely cheaply using simple skills and, provide dwellings which are comfortable and easily modified to suit changing family needs. There are however, many instances where the seismic collapse of earth buildings has caused high death tolls, and building codes generally discourage this type of construction in seismic areas.
Investigation of earthquake damage to earth buildings has shown that their vulnerability may be significantly reduced by incorporating timber or concrete reinforcing elements, and by attention to building layout and detailing.
This paper discusses the results of this research and looks at the approach being taken by engineers in New Zealand to the preparation of a code of practice for earth construction.
Jenny Christie
Some Geological Hazards in Egypt, Their Nature and Extent
Abstract
The present paper deals with the geological investigation of the sites susceptible to natural hazards in Egypt. Earthquakes, landslides, and the movement of sand dunes are the most important events causing future disasters. Dealing with the earthquakes, Egypt is a country of low to moderate seismic hazard and earthquakes are active in the northern parts of the country and along the western side of the Red Sea. In the northern parts the dominant rock types are related to the Oligocene, and along the western side of the Red Sea coast the land is covered by the Quaternary deposits. Correlating the seismicity with large — scale tectonic features such as faults, it was found that NNW and E — W faults are responsible for some significant seismic activity. The areas with relatively low seismic activity are covered by thick marine limestone of Cretaceous age lying above the Nubian sandstone in the larger part of the Western Desert. The basement rocks in the Eastern Desert have also low seismic activity The Nile Valley and Delta areas are underlain by thick alluvial sequences that are likely to provide a much less secure foundation during earthquakes than the crystalline bedrock in the Eastern Desert. Damage to buildings is related to clay thickness. Clays swell and slake in water leading to vulnerability of the buildings in areas with considerable clay thickness.
The poor mechanical properties and structural of most geological formations, the seismic characteristics of the territory, the intense rainfall as well as the human activities are the main causes of landslide. On the other hand, vast areas in the Western Desert is covered by moving sands which can be considered an important event in natural disaster. Sand dunes to the north of the Nile Delta started to encroach the cultivated land. To avoid dune movement over areas of future development, the location should be proportional to the rate of barchan movement.
Ahmed Farouk Kamel
The Ecological Impact of Fire on the Peatland Forest in the DA Xingan Mountain, China
Abstract
A major wild fire swept through the northern part of Da Xingan mountains of China between May 6 and June 2, 1987. After the fire the burned and unburned areas of peatland forest were compared for differences in their ground vegetations and microclimates, etc. There are changes of composition in ground vegetation. The burnt peatland forests in the valley become shrub swamps without trees and young birch swamps. If surface water decreases, it can return to the peatland forest where large (Larix gmelini) are dominant. However, since the water increase naturally, tussocks develop and fens will substitute shrub swamps.
Kuiyi Zhao
EL Niño/Southern Oscillation, Indian Monsoon and World Grain Yields — a Synthesis
Abstract
Large-scale atmospheric circulations and anomalies have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather over many parts of the world. In this paper, the impact of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic anomalies on the Indian monsoon are analyzed with particular reference to El Niño/Southern oscillation (ENSO) events of the last hundred years.
A possible link between ENSO, Indian monsoon and grain yields is investigated by analyzing world-wide grain yield data in conjunction with ENSO event and floods and droughts in the Indian monsoon. It is found that an ENSO event is generally associated with a drought in the Indian monsoon followed by a low grain yield over South Asia and Australia and high grain yield over the north American prairies. Implications of this analysis for estimating world grain yields in advance are considered.
Madhav L. Khandekar
EL-Niño and Storm Surges in the Bay of Bengal
Abstract
The teleconnections between the occurrence of El-Niño events and the generation of tropical cyclones in various ocean basins have been considered by several authors. Here we present data linking storm surges in the Bay of Bengal with El-Niño. In fact this preliminary study shows that there is no correlation between El-Niño occurrences and Storm Surge Events in the Bay of Bengal.
T. S. Murty, V. R. Neralla
Storm Surges and River Flooding Bangladesh: A Rising Challenge in a Changing Global Climate
Abstract
Bangladesh is a delta of the rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna at the head of Bay of Bengal. The three main rivers the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna rise in the Himalayan hills and drains a catchment area of about 1.5 million KM2 of which only 7.5% lies within Bangladesh. Numerous tributaries and distributaries of the river system covers entire Bangladesh. There is heavy rainfall within the catchment area of the G-B-M rivers concentrated within the four month monsoon period (June–Sept.).
Bangladesh is prone to meteorological and geological natural disasters due to its geographical location, variable climate, variable topography, dynamic river system and exposure to the sea. Floods and cyclones are the natural disasters that Bangladesh faces recurrently. The steady increase in population continuously increases the potential for natural disaster in Bangladesh.
The present scenarios of natural disasters in Bangladesh may aggravate due to possible changes in global climate as a consequence of global warming. Increase in precipitation and rise in sea level will increase the intensity and frequency of extreme events. The long-term implications of global warming with the addition of population explosion could make Bangladesh more vulnerable to natural disasters in years to come. This paper mainly focusses on the causes and occurrence of natural disasters in Bangladesh (especially 1988 flood and 1991 cyclone) and the weakness and strength of the existing measures in disaster prevention, mitigation and management. The counter measures and strategies which should be undertaken in disaster prevention/mitigation in Bangladesh have been recommended.
Selina Begum
Numerical Study of Nonlinear Tide-Surge Interaction in the Coastal Waters of Shanghai
Abstract
Using conventional two-dimensional nonlinear shallow water equations and the associated semi-momentum finite difference schemes, the nonlinear interaction between storm surges and tides, caused by eight tropical cyclones of different tracks over the coastal waters of Shanghai is numerically studied in this paper. The contributions of various nonlinear terms in the dynamic equations to the water level heights is diagnostically analyzed in detail. It is shown that the nonlinear bottom friction term is of prime importance in controlling the water level and nonlinear tide-surge interaction. The correction to the water level and storm surge due to tide-surge interaction is significant.
Qin Zenghao, Duan Yihong
A Numerical Model to Simulate the Movement of Suspended Sediment off the Huanghe River (Yellow River) Delta
Abstract
The Huanghe River is known as a river with an extraordinary enormous sediment (about 14x108 ton/a) being carried out into its estuary. The enormous sediment has frequently caused the deposition, extension and avulsion of the tail of the Huanghe River since 1855. From 1855 to 1984, the area of the Huanghe River Delta had increased by 2530.4 km2 due to the deposition, extension and avulsion, which have not only made the lower reaches suffered from disasters, but also had significant influence on the ecosystem in the coastal water region. To bring the development of the channel of its estuary under control, it is necessary to predict the distribution and evolution of the sediment transport off the river mouth quantitatively. This paper presents a 2D numerical model to simulate the movement of suspended sediments off the mouth. The hindcast results of the model reproduce the main observed features of the sediment distribution.
Le Kentang, Shi Jiuxin, Liu Xingquan
Hazards from Sea Level Rise and their Impacts on Resources Utilization in the Yangtze River Deltaic Plain, China
Abstract
Sea level rise will cause or exacerbate a series of coastal hazards during the 21st century. The Yangtze River deltaic plain, China will be the region most vulnerable to accelerating sea level rise, in this region, relative sea level may rise 38–66 cm by the year 2050, while the eustatic sea level rises 20–30 cm. Accelerating sea level rise will increase the probabilities of occurrence of storm surge and the intensity of salt water intrusion into the Yangtze River Estuary; exacerbate coastal erosion; impede the drainage of floodwater of coastal lowlands and inundate tidal flat and coastal wetlands. This paper focuses the discussion on exacerbated coastal hazards by sea level rise and their impacts on resources utilization (land, water and living resources) in the Yangtze River deltaic plain.
Yang Guishan
The Trapping of Oil at DAWHAT AD DAFI - An Analysis of Results from the 1991 Arabian Gulf Oil Spills
Abstract
The Gulf war of 1991 resulted in some of the worst oil spills in the Arabian Gulf. While the amount of oil spilled was one of the largest in the world and the damage extensive, the desalination plants near Al-Jubail on the Saudi Arabian coast were not affected by oil contamination. Contamination of these plants would have threatened the water supply not only to the Saudi population but also to the military personnel that were involved in fighting the war. The amount of oil reaching this area of the Arabian Gulf was rather minimal compared to the total quantity of oil that was actaully spilled into the Gulf waters.
Most of the spills originated in the northern portions of the Gulf in mid to late January 1991 and travelled down the west side of the Arabian Gulf affecting its coastline along the way. By mid February the oil had reached the area of Abu Ali island protruding out into the Gulf just north of the desalination plants. The space between the mainland and Abu Ali island was blocked by a causeway. This area, known as Dawhat ad Dafi, would be an ideal catchment area for the oil if the oil could be steered that way.
Through numerical model simulations this paper examines the role of the winds and tides in influencing the accumulation of oil in the Dawhat ad Dafi area. It is found that the changes in the wind direction from their climatological norm of northwesterlies, particularly at the time the oil reached the Ad Dafi area, played a critical role in the accumulation of oil in that area. The numerical simulations did not show any significant contribution from the tidal currents towards this accumulation. Experiments carried out by the authors to determine the impact of the causeways blocking the area between the Saudi mainland and Abu Ali island showed that the presence of these causeways did not produce any material change in the tidal current magnitudes, but they did prevent the oil from escaping southward from that area.
S. Venkatesh, T. S. Murty
Damage to Fine Structure of Gills of Mytilus SP. Due to Pollution by LAS (Linear-Alkyl-Benzene-Sulphonate) and Cadmium
Abstract
The possible effects of the use of domestic detergents containing LAS (Linear-alkyl -benzene-sulphonate) in the gills of Mytilus sp., in presence and absence of cadmium., are investigated. Preliminary analyses were carried out to determine the trend of LAS concentration with time in the aquaria containing mussels. The experimental conditions were: 6 mg/lLAS; 5o μ/lCd; 6 mg/l LAS + 5oμ/lCd;.After 15 and 30 day exposure ten mussels were sacrified and their gills observed by Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Another group of ten mussels was sacrified and used for Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry analysis of Cd accumulation. SEM investigations after 30 days showed that gill lamellae were severely damaged by LAS and LAS + Cd.Cadmium alone does not cause any damage, which can be seen by SEM.
L.Dalla Venezia, S. Stradella, G. Campesan, A. Menetto

Management Issues

Frontmatter
Natural and Technological Disaster Management: Uncertainty in Technical, Sociopolitical and Scientific Issues
Abstract
A certain number of natural and technological disasters in Canada and around the world are presented to illustrate the role that complexity and uncertainty play in the issues pertaining to many catastrophes: technological, sociopolitical and, sometimes, scientific issues. In order to deal with this uncertainty, the interaction between organizational structure, culture and technology, as applied to developing countries, sheds new light on disaster management.
H. Denis
Governmental Measures to Mitigate Earthquake Impacts in Algeria
Abstract
This paper presents the different earthquake disaster prevention and post-disaster measures taken by the government of Algeria between 1980 and 1995. It details the measures taken at the country level as well as those involving the co-operation of international organizations. It discusses post-disaster measures including the relief of victims and the methodology of the assessment of the serviceability of damaged structures after the disaster, which represents one of the most important duty of the emergency staff, are also discussed. It examines the range of needed, possible and practical pre-disaster measures which the government of Algeria should undertake and actively encourage. This study briefly presents scientific and non-scientific Algerian organizations.
Djillali Benouar
Unified Natural Hazard Management: Lessons from Flooding
Abstract
In the United States, authority for flood loss reduction programs is fragmented among thousands of federal, state, local and private sector entities. Experience of the National Flood Insurance Program, has demonstrated the merit of pursuing a unified national program to coordinate the activities of these entities. This experience is applicable to the mitigation of earthquake and hurricane hazards which are often geographically coincident with flood hazards. Lessons from flood experience suggest that the coordination of standards and application of technology are insufficient to achieve unified natural hazards management. In addition, national goals are essential to provide focus and cultural values must be explicitly recognized and accommodated or modified.
Frank H. Thomas
On the Natural Disaster Reduction Policy and Management System in China
Abstract
China is one of the world’s most disaster prone countries, having been hit over the, centuries with famine, flood, earthquakes, to give only three examples. China has fought these disasters with massive works projects and with relief for hundreds if not thousands of years. This paper deals with the historical investigation of natural disaster reduction in China and the analysis of its three phases: the empirical, semi-empirical and the development of an integrated disaster response policy under the theory of system engineering. In order to suit this development the Chinese Government will have to adjust its disaster reduction policy “give top priority to the disaster’s prevention and to combine it with the relief operation for an integrated system of response”. A proposal is made to reform the existing management system of disaster reduction and to draw up a national law of integrated disaster reduction management.
Huating Yang
Disaster Mitigation and Economic Development in Shandong Province, China
Abstract
Shandong is one of the largest coastal provinces of China. It is confronted with the coordination of economic development and disaster mitigation. Disasters in Shandong are characterized by their severity, frequency, variety and extensiveness. The disasters, which are abnormally active in recent years, constitute great menace to the economic development of Shandong. It is a feasible and wise choice for the province to coordinate disaster mitigation and economic development. This principle is the basis for the strategic goals guiding ideology, and plans for disaster mitigation and economic development.
Jiangong Wang, Mingchuan Ji
Marine Disasters in China and the Strategy for Their Mitigations
Abstract
China is one of those countries in the world which are frequently hit by marine natural disasters, which cause the economic losses of about 1 billion US dollars a year on an average during 1949–1990. The direct economic losses caused by marine disasters have had a rapidly increasing tendency year after year since the 1980’s. This paper reviews the situation of marine disasters such as storm surge, sea wave, red tide, sea water encroachment and sea ice, and the successes and failures of their reduction. To mitigate losses caused by marine disasters, the strategy for their mitigation, which includes countermeasure, information, scientific and technological research, organization and training is also suggested.
Le Kentang
Storm Surge Disasters in Beibu Bay (China) and Countermeasures for Their Reduction
Abstract
Storm surge disasters in the Beibu Bay China are very serious. The historical documents and in-site investigations show that the years of 1501, 1906, 1934, 1965 and 1986 are those with quite major disaster due to storm surges. The conditions of the historical disasters remind us that the consciousness of disaster prevention and reduction of the whole nation must be strengthened. The technical measures for performing the study on the countermeasure to disaster prevention and reduction due to storm surges in the Beibu Bay can be regrouped into three aspects. The first one is the overall plan to accelerate the establishment of “four lines of defence”. The second is to reinforce the monitoring measures and set up the warning and defence system. The third is to stagger the occurrence time of flood peaks and reduce the peak discharges by using scientific and engineering techniques, the disaster prevention by high buildings and the insurance of tide prevention.
Yu Rixin
Managing Forest Fires: An Automatic Fire Weather Station Network in China
Abstract
Following huge forest fire of May 1987, the Chinese government has paid more attention to combat forest fires using modern science and technology measures. The Ministry of Forestry, using a World Bank loan, constructed several fire management and engineering projects. One of these projects is an Automatic Fire Weather Station Network system which has been designed for Daxinganling forest area in the northwestern corner of northeast China. It include 46 automatic stations, 20 store-and-forward Ultrahigh Frequency repeaters and 30 base stations linked to microwave main line by modems. The data can be collected and used for decision making on firefighting and prevention.
Cheng Bangyu, Jin Xiaozhong
Hazards-93: Concluding Plenary Session and Recommendations
Abstract
HAZARDS-93 brought together scientists and government officials from 20 countries for the purpose of engaging in a free exchange of knowledge, experience and ideas regarding the scientific and socio-economic aspects of mitigating losses from natural and man-made disasters. Over 175 papers presented a broad range of scientific disciplinary and disaster management based issues. The objective of the Concluding Plenary session was to capture the main conference themes and engage the conferees in discussion to identify action recommendations for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and hazard management community. The Plenary Committee Members presented synoptic discussions of themes drawn from the conference. Discussions were focussed on the need to unify government programs, improve education and communication, and exchange information and data. Specific action recommendations were addressed to the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural and ManMade Hazards, national governments, and scientific disciplines.
Frank Thomas, HelÈn Denis, Alan Easton, M. Semih YÜcemen, Wang Angsheng
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Land-Based and Marine Hazards
Editors
M. I. El-Sabh
S. Venkatesh
H. Denis
T. S. Murty
Copyright Year
1996
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Electronic ISBN
978-94-009-0273-2
Print ISBN
978-94-010-6607-5
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0273-2