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01-03-2014

Aggregation level matters: evidence from french electoral data

Authors: Luana Russo, Laurent Beauguitte

Published in: Quality & Quantity | Issue 2/2014

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Abstract

This paper, issued from the Cartelec project, raises a methodological issue regarding ecological inference. Studying abstention in two recent French elections in the Parisian agglomeration, a linear regression is launched on three different levels of aggregation: from the finest one (polling station), through cities, to electoral districts (circonscriptions). Tests on multicollinearity clearly indicate that employing the finest level of aggregation allows more variables to be significant, enhances the explanatory power of the model, and improves the collinearity amongst the dependent variables.

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Abstention, measured in percentages of the inscrits, was 16.22 % (national level) in 2007 versus 53.64 % in 2010. For the space studied here, the gap is even higher (14 % in 2007 and 55.79 % in 2010).

Being inscrit on the electoral list is mandatory for voting. The inscription is theoretically an obligation for all French citizens, but constraint has never been used, and the non-inscription rate is estimated around 7–9% of the French adult population (Braconnier and Dormagen 2007a).

Source: INSEE National census, 2007.

Accomplir son devoir électoral.

For people knowing the French educational system: low level means a diploma from CAP to BEP, and high level means (the name being a little abusive for the youngest generations) Baccalauréat and above.

In 2008, Paris had 2,590,000 inhabitants and the second largest city of la petite couronne is Boulogne-Billancourt with only 109,000 inhabitants. The largest Parisian arrondissement in population is the 15th, with 238,000 persons.

In France, if we consider all elections on a national scale, excluding referendums, the highest rate of abstention was in the 2009 Européennes election, at 59.37 % of the inscrits.

The percentage of French in the population is 84.84 %, the foreigners are 15.16 %, and the immigrants, 20.48 %. The total is of course more than 100 %.

The percentage of no diploma in the population is 13.01 %, the percentage of people holding a title form a CAP to a BEP are 18.91 %, and the ones olding a BAC or more are 38.20 %. All the remaining population out of this percentages is still studying.

The percentage of owners in the population is 17.45 %, the renters are 25.73 %, and the people benefiting from free housing, 1.81 %.

The percentage of young in the population is 9.86 %, the people in their working age are 55.60 %, and the seniors, that is the old, 12.84 %.

Braconnier, C., Dormagen, J.-Y.: Ségrégation sociale et ségrégation politique. Non inscrits, mal inscrits et abstentionnistes, Centre d’analyse stratégique 11, 6–61 (2007a)

Braconnier, C., Dormagen, J.Y.: La démocratie de l’abstention. Aux origines de la démobilisation électorale en milieu populaire. Gallimard, Paris (2007b)

Chatterjee, S., Hadi, A.S., Price, B.: Regression Analysis by Example. Wiley, New York (2000)

Hamilton, L.C.: Statistics with STATA. Brooks/Cole, Toronto (2009)

Héran, F.: Le nouveau désordre électoral. In: Cautrès, B., Mayer, N. (eds.) Voter toujours, parfois..ou jamais, pp. 351–357. Presses de Sciences Po, Paris (2004)

Lancelot, A.: L’abstentionnisme électoral en France. Armand Colin, Paris (1968)

Leahy, K.: Multicollinearity: when the solution is the problem. In: Rud, O.P. (ed.) Data Mining Cookbook, pp. 106–108. Wiley, New York (2001)

Lewis-Beck, M.S.: Applied Regression. An Introduction. Sage Publications, Newbury Park (1980)

Mooney, C.Z., Duval, R.D.: Bootstrapping: A Nonparametric Approach to Statistical Inference. Sage Publications, Newbury Park (1993)

Morris, J.D.: Ridge regression and some alternative weighting techniques: a comment on Darlington. Psychol. Bull. 91, 203–210 (1982)CrossRef

Oumlil, A.B., Balloun, J.L.: Levels of aggregation: a conceptual model. Qual. Quant. 32, 109–117 (1998)CrossRef

Pagel, M.D., Lunneberg, C.E.: Empirical evaluation of ridge regression. Psychol. Bull. 97, 342–355 (1985)CrossRef

Percheron, A., Subileau, F., Toinet, M.-F.: Non-inscription, abstention et vote blanc et nul en France. Espace, populations, sociétés 3, 511–521 (1987)CrossRef

Rivière, J.: Vote et géographie des inégalités sociales : Paris et sa petite couronne, Métropolitiques. http://www.metropolitiques.eu/Vote-et-geographie-des-inegalites.html (2012)

Robinson, W.S.: Ecological correlations and the behaviour of individuals. Am. Sociol. Rev. 15(3), 351–357 (1950)CrossRef

Selb, P., Simon, M.: Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys. Paper presented at the First European conference on comparative electoral research, Sofia, December 1–3 (2011)

Subileau, F., Toinet, M.-F.: Les chemins de l’abstention : une comparaison franco-américaine. La Découverte, Paris (1993)

Upton, G., Cook, I.: Oxford Dictionary of Statistics. Oxford University Press, New York (2008)

Title: Aggregation level matters: evidence from french electoral data
Authors: Luana Russo
Laurent Beauguitte
Publication date: 01-03-2014
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Quality & Quantity / Issue 2/2014
Print ISSN: 0033-5177
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7845
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9814-0

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