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16-11-2020

Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

Authors: Gizem Uzuner, Sudeshna Ghosh

Published in: Quality & Quantity | Issue 5/2021

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Abstract

In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.

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Available only for authorised users

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For detail information interested reader should see Hatemi-J (2012).

See the Table 4: There is no multicollinearity between the variables, since the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) is less than 10.

In this study, d determined as a 1 by using Augmented Dickey Fuller and Zivot Andrews unit root tests. For brevity, the unit root tests are eliminated. The unit root tests are available upon request.

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Title: Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?
Authors: Gizem Uzuner
Sudeshna Ghosh
Publication date: 16-11-2020
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Quality & Quantity / Issue 5/2021
Print ISSN: 0033-5177
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7845
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-020-01074-7

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