Driving effects of spatial differences of water consumption based on LMDI model construction and data description

Quantifying the driving effect of the spatial difference of the provincial water consumption is conducive to the development and implementation of the differentiated water resources policy and is of great significance to the implementation of the dual-control action on total water consumption and intensity. In this paper, the LMDI model is used to decompose the driving effect of the spatial difference of provincial water consumption from 2000 to 2015 into intensity effect, structure effect, income effect and population effect. According to the trend of the time-varying driving effect of provincial water consumption, the water consumption in more than half of the provinces is less than the national average. The eastern provinces gradually increase over time, while the central provinces decrease. In addition to Xinjiang, Guangxi and Sichuan in the western regions, the water consumption in other provinces is always less than the national average; except for Jiangsu and Shanghai, the water efficiency in eastern provinces is generally higher than the national average, which is the driving force for water consumption decline. The provinces with water efficiency lower than the national average are mainly concentrated in the Midwest regions; the provinces whose industrial structure adjustment is more conducive to the decrease in water consumption are mainly concentrated in the eastern region with gradually increasing provinces, while the industrial structure in most of the central and western provinces needs to be further optimized and upgraded; in addition to Hebei and Hainan, the economic development levels of other provinces in the eastern region are generally high, which has effectively promoted the increase of water consumption. The economic development in most of the Midwest provinces lags behind and the growth of water consumption is suppressed. The population is mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions, while the population in the western region is relatively small, which limits the increase of water consumption. From the differences among the three industries in terms of the intensity effect and the structural effect, the provinces with generally lower water intensity in the three industries are mainly concentrated in the eastern region. The declining share of the primary industry in the eastern provinces has contributed to the drop in water consumption, while the Midwest provinces need to further adjust and optimize the industrial structure in order to promote the reduction of water consumption. Therefore, when implementing the state policy, provinces need to take targeted and differentiated water saving measures to reduce water consumption. Specific consideration can be given to technological progress, industrial restructuring and population control. Instead economic growth is the driving force for social progress, which will increase water demand.