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Population and Environment

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28-06-2019 | Original Paper

Extreme weather and migration: evidence from Bangladesh

Authors: Amanda R. Carrico, Katharine Donato

Published in: Population and Environment | Issue 1/2019

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Abstract

Using retrospective migration history data collected in southwestern Bangladesh, we examine the relationship between extreme weather conditions—warm spells, dry spells, wet spells, and intense precipitation—and the likelihood that male household heads make a first internal or international migrant trip. We also investigate whether and how agricultural livelihoods and having a close migrant relative are associated with migration in response to extreme weather. Findings reveal that dry spells are most consistently associated with increased migration, although we see some evidence that first trips also increase after warm spells and above average rainfall. Associations between dry spells and warm spells are more pronounced among household heads with agricultural livelihoods. We find little evidence that having migrant relatives is associated with migration after extreme weather events, but some evidence that the presence of migrant networks at the community level is associated with international migration after an environmental shock.

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However, women make up an increasing share of labor migrants, largely due to emergence of the ready-made garment industry in Bangladesh in the 1980s (Ward et al. 2004).

Given the high prevalence of migration to India, we collected migration histories for this destination separately from other international destinations.

The BEMS was part of a larger project that investigated coastal dynamics, environmental change, and migration in the low-lying southwestern region of Bangladesh, which was heavily affected by tidal processes (Auerbach et al. 2015). The BEMS is closely modeled on the sampling design and ethnosurvey used in the Mexican Migration Project (see http://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/).

Of the 286 male household heads who were excluded, most (72.0%) were born outside of the study region, two (0.7%) assumed the role of household head after 2012, and another 78 (27.3%) completed a first trip before 1973.

The average duration of trips for domestic moves was 3.3 years and, for international moves, 6.4 years.

Although we wanted to construct a continuous measure of the number of family members who had migrated, we were unable to do so because it was rare to have more than one migrant in the household (1.9% of all person years). Thus, we use a dichotomous variable.

The zero-order correlations range from −0.02 to 0.19.

We also considered a seasonally splitted missing value imputation algorithm (SEASPLIT), which produced nearly identical regression results as those reported below. We decided to use the SEADEC algorithm because it generated an imputed dataset with fewer outliers and best matched the seasonal and temporal trends within the raw data.

We also estimated multinomial models in which domestic and international trips are modeled as competing risks. These findings are presented in Table 5 of the Appendix.

The distribution of migrant social ties is roughly equivalent across the four communities; mean person-years with social ties are 0.018, 0.012, 0.019, and 0.010 for Morrelganj, Tala, Satkhira Sadar, and Kalia, respectively. Mean person years with a first international trip for the same communities are 0.015, 0.002, 0.004, and 0.011.

We included these interactions in a preliminary model; however, the standard errors associated with the interactions are very large making interpretation difficult.

Socioecological System Dynamics Related to Livelihood, Human Migration, and Landscape Evolution (Grant # CNH-1716909)

Available from the authors on request.

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Title: Extreme weather and migration: evidence from Bangladesh
Authors: Amanda R. Carrico
Katharine Donato
Publication date: 28-06-2019
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Population and Environment / Issue 1/2019
Print ISSN: 0199-0039
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7810
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-019-00322-9