5. Forecasting from Recursive Econometric Micromodels

Three empirical recursive multi-equation models are presented. The chain procedure of building forecasts from the medium-sized enterprise model, which consists of seven stochastic equations, is presented. Chain prediction alternated with sequential prediction. The second recursive model consists of three stochastic equations. It describes the costs of an enterprise selling sports equipment that is listed on the stock exchange. The procedure of building quarterly forecasts together with the assessment of their admissibility was presented. The third recursive model characterizes the payment card market in China. The links between the most important variables in the Chinese model of the payment card market were characterized. The procedure for building quarterly forecasts for this market, described by seven endogenous variables, is also presented.