4. Framework for Systemic Socio-economic Vulnerability and Loss Assessment

A unified approach for modeling shelter needs and health impacts caused by earthquake damage which integrates social vulnerability into the physical systems modeling approaches has been developed. The shelter needs and health impact models discussed here bring together the state-of-the-art casualty and displaced population estimation models into a comprehensive modeling approach based on multi-criteria decision support, which provides decision makers with a dynamic platform to capture post-disaster emergency shelter demand and health impact decisions. The focus in the shelter needs model is to obtain shelter demand as a consequence of building usability, building habitability and social vulnerability of the affected population rather than building damage alone. The shelter model simulates households’ decision-making and considers physical, socio-economic, climatic, spatial and temporal factors in addition to modeled building damage states. The health impact model combines a new semi-empirical methodology for casualty estimation with models of health impact vulnerability, and transportation accessibility to obtain a holistic assessment of health impacts in the emergency period after earthquakes.