Top

Journal of Chinese Political Science

Published in:

17-11-2018 | Research Article

More Than One Trap: Problematic Interpretations and Overlooked Lessons from Thucydides

Author: Steve Chan

Published in: Journal of Chinese Political Science | Issue 1/2019

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config

AI-assisted search

Off

Abstract

Popular rendition of the so-called Thucydides’ Trap focuses excessively on only one possible explanation of interstate wars to the exclusion of others. It also commits various acts of commission and omission that threaten the validity of its central proposition. This essay reviews some of the major problems pertaining to the logic of inquiry characteristic to this genre of analysis, its interpretation of historical evidence, and its neglect of alternative explanations of war – even those that Thucydides had written about in his account. There is a danger of self-fulfilling prophecy to the extent that leaders in Beijing and Washington are inclined to believe in an analogy to an ancient war that happened some 2500 years ago. Conventional invocations of Thucydides’ Trap fail to recognize that there are several possible pathways to war. Because they offer only a structural explanation based on interstate power shifts, they give short shrift to the role of human agency and fail to attend sufficiently to what leaders can do to avoid conflict.

previous article Introduction: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?

next article In the Shadow of the Thucydides Trap: International Relations Theory and the Prospects for Peace in U.S.-China Relations

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Allison, Graham. 2017. Destined for war: Can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap? Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

Barnhart, Michael A. 1987. Japan prepares for total war: The search for economic security, 1919–1945. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Beckley, Michael. 2011/2012. China Century? Why America’s edge will endure. International Security 36: 41–78.CrossRef

Bourne, Kenneth. 1967. Britain and the balance of power in North America, 1815–1908. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Brooks, Stephen G., and William Wohlforth. 2008. World out of balance: International relations and the challenge of American primacy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRef

Chan, Steve. 2017. The power-transition discourse and China’s rise. In Encyclopedia of empirical international relations theory, ed. William R. Thompson. New York: Oxford University Press. Available online: http://politics.oxfordre.com/page/recently-published/ (Accessed 18 May 2018).

Chan, Steve. 2008. China, the U.S., and the power-transition theory: A critique. London: Routledge.

Chan, Steve. 2005. Is there a power transition between the U.S. and China? The different faces of power. Asian Survey 45: 687–701.CrossRef

Chan, Steve. 2004. Exploring some puzzles in power-transition theory: Some implications for Sino-American relations. Security Studies 13: 103–141.CrossRef

10.

Chen, Jian. 1994. China’s road to the Korean War: The making of the Sino-American confrontation. New York: Columbia University Press.

11.

Christensen, Thomas J. 2001. Posing problem without catching up: China’s rise and challenges for U.S. security policy. International Security 25: 5–40.CrossRef

12.

Christensen, Thomas J., and Jack Snyder. 1990. Chain gangs and passed bucks: Predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity. International Organization 44: 137–168.CrossRef

13.

Copeland, Dale C. 2000. The origins of major war. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

14.

Dicicco, Jonathan M., and Jack S. Levy. 1999. Power shifts and problem shifts: The evolution of the power transition research program. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43: 675–704.CrossRef

15.

Doran, Charles F., and Wes Parsons. 1980. War and the cycle of relative power. American Political Science Review 74: 947–965.CrossRef

16.

Fischoff, Baruch, and Ruth Beyth. 1975. “I knew it would happen”: Remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 16: 1–16.CrossRef

17.

Fravel, M. Taylor. 2008. Strong border, Secure nation: Cooperation and order in China’s territorial disputes. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRef

18.

Ike, Nobutaka. 1967. Japan’s decision for war: Records of the 1941 policy conferences. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

19.

Iriye, Akira. 1981. Power and culture: The Japanese-American war, 1941–1945. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

20.

Kagan, Donald. 1969. The outbreak of the Peloponnesian war. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

21.

Kennedy, Paul. 1987. The rise and fall of great powers. New York: Vintage Books.

22.

Khong, Yuen Foong. 1992. Analogies at war: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam decisions of 1965. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

23.

Lai, David. 2011. The United States and China in Power Transition. Strategic studies institute, U.S. Army War College. www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. Accessed 21 October 2017

24.

Lebow, Richard N., and Benjamin Valentino. 2009. Lost in transition: A critical analysis of power transition theory. International Relations 23: 389–410.CrossRef

25.

Levy, Jack S. 2008. Power transition theory and the rise of China. In China’s ascent: power, security, and the future of international politics, ed. Robert S. Ross and Zhu Feng, 11–23. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

26.

Levy, Jack S., and William R. Thompson. 2006. Hegemonic threats and great-power balancing in Europe, 1495-1999. Security Studies 14: 1–33.CrossRef

27.

Levy, Jack S., and William R. Thompson. 2010. Balancing on land and at sea: Do states ally against the leading global power? International Security 35: 7–43.CrossRef

28.

MacMillan, Margaret. 2013. The war that ended peace. New York: Random House.

29.

Modelski, George, and William R. Thompson. 1996. Leading sectors and world powers: The coevolution of global politics and economics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.

30.

Most, Benjamin A., and Harvey Starr. 1989. Inquiry. logic and international politics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.

31.

Organski, A.F.K., and Jacek Kugler. 1980. The war ledger, 1980. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRef

32.

Posen, Barry R. 2003. Command of the commons: The military foundation of U.S. hegemony. International Security 28: 5–46.CrossRef

33.

Putnam, Robert D. 1988. Diplomacy and domestic politics: The logic of two-level games. International Organization 42: 427–460.CrossRef

34.

Rapkin, David P., and William R. Thompson. 2003. Power transition, challenge and the (re)emergence of China. International Interactions 29: 315–342.CrossRef

35.

Rasler, Karen, and William R. Thompson. 2000. Global war and the political economy of structural change. In Handbook of war studies II, ed. Manus Midlarsky, 301–331. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

36.

Robertson, Esmonde D. 1963. Hitler’s pre-war policy and military plans, 1933–1939. London: Longmans.

37.

Russett, Bruce M., and John R. Oneal. 2001. Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence and international organizations. New York: Norton.

38.

Schweller, Randall. 1998. Deadly imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler’s strategy of world conquest. New York: Columbia University Press.

39.

Snyder, Glenn H. 1997. Alliance politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

40.

Snyder, Jack. 1993. Myths of empire: Domestic politics and international ambition. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

41.

Tammen, Ronald L., Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Allan C. Stam III, Mark Abdollahian, Carole Alsharabati, Brian Efird, and A.F.K. Organski. 2000. Power transitions: Strategies for the 21^st century. New York: Chatham House

42.

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. 2017. The world factbook. Available online: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ (Accessed 18 June 2018).

43.

Vasquez, John A. 1996. When are power transitions dangerous? An appraisal and reformulation of power transition theory. In Parity and war: Evaluations and extensions of the war ledger, ed. Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke, 35–56. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

44.

Welch, David. 2015. Can the United States and China avoid a Thucydides trap? E-international relations. Available online: https://www.e-ir.info/2015/04/06/can-the-united-states-and-china-avoid-a-thucydides-trap/ (Accessed 18 May 2018)

45.

Whiting, Allen S. 1960. China crosses the Yalu: The decision to enter the Korean war. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Title: More Than One Trap: Problematic Interpretations and Overlooked Lessons from Thucydides
Author: Steve Chan
Publication date: 17-11-2018
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Journal of Chinese Political Science / Issue 1/2019
Print ISSN: 1080-6954
Electronic ISSN: 1874-6357
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-018-9583-2

Springer Professional

Abstract

Please log in to get access to your license.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Other articles of this Issue 1/2019

Mary E. Gallagher: Authoritarian Legality in China: Law, Workers, and the State

Michał Lubina, ed., Russia and China: A Political Marriage of Convenience – Stable and Successful

Qin Gao, ed., Welfare, Work, and Poverty: Social Assistance in China

Introduction: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?

Cheng Li, Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership

Stephen Noakes, The Advocacy Trap: Transnational Activism and State Power in China