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2017 | Book

An Introduction to Resilience for Critical Infrastructures Read chapter Read first chapter

Resilience and Risk

Methods and Application in Environment, Cyber and Social Domains

Editors: Igor Linkov, José Manuel Palma-Oliveira

Publisher: Springer Netherlands

Book Series : NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security

Part of: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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About this book

This volume addresses the challenges associated with methodology and application of risk and resilience science and practice to address emerging threats in environmental, cyber, infrastructure and other domains. The book utilizes the collective expertise of scholars and experts in industry, government and academia in the new and emerging field of resilience in order to provide a more comprehensive and universal understanding of how resilience methodology can be applied in various disciplines and applications. This book advocates for a systems-driven view of resilience in applications ranging from cyber security to ecology to social action, and addresses resilience-based management in infrastructure, cyber, social domains and methodology and tools. Risk and Resilience has been written to open up a transparent dialog on resilience management for scientists and practitioners in all relevant academic disciplines and can be used as supplement in teaching risk assessment and management courses.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter

Introduction

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. An Introduction to Resilience for Critical Infrastructures
Abstract
Wide ranging and uncertain threats to public health, energy networks, cybersecurity, and many other interconnected facets of infrastructure and human activity, are driving governments, including those of the United States, European Union and elsewhere to further efforts to bolster national resilience and security. Resilience offers the capability to better review how systems may continually adjust to changing information, relationships, goals, threats, and other factors in order to adapt in the face of change and uncertainty – particularly those potential changes that could yield negative outcomes. Specific to this need, fifty scholars and practitioners of risk and resilience analysis from some twenty countries met in Ponta Delgada in the Azores Islands from June 26 – 29, 2016 to discuss the challenges associated with the emerging science of resilience theory and applications. Sponsored and funded in part by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Science for Peace and Security Programme, the overall topic of this meeting was “Resilience-Based Approaches to Critical Infrastructure Safeguarding.” The workshop focused on ways in which military commanders and civilian decision makers alike could utilize resilience analysis in operations. More specifically, workshop discussion centered on both general resilience theory and analysis as well as various applications of resilience in topics ranging from cybersecurity to infrastructure resilience to ecosystem health. This chapter serves as a general introduction to the perspectives of various participants, as well as a reflection of discussion regarding how resilience thinking and analysis may be applied to critical infrastructure in various applications.
Igor Linkov, José Manuel Palma-Oliveira

Methods

Frontmatter
Chapter 2. Towards a Generic Resilience Management, Quantification and Development Process: General Definitions, Requirements, Methods, Techniques and Measures, and Case Studies
Abstract
Generic standards on risk management and functional safety (e.g. ISO 31000 and IEC 61508) and similar frameworks proved to be surprisingly efficient to trigger and consolidate a widely accepted and ever more effective best practice frontier for risk control. In particular, this includes fundamental and applied research activities to improve processes and to provide more advanced, interlinked and effective methods for risk control. However, this also included the identification of yet unresolved challenges and lacks of completeness. The present work goes beyond these frameworks to address the need for a joint approach to frame resilience management and quantification for system development and improvement. It is understood as extending classical risk control to creeping or sudden disruptive, unexpected (unexampled) events, as strongly focusing on technical systems and organizational capabilities to bounce back (better) and as providing generic (technical) resilience capabilities for such resilience response performance. To this end, the article presents general resilience requirements, a resilience management process, which systematically refers to a resilience method taxonomy, resilience levels as well as an applicability table of methods to different resilience management steps for each resilience level. Three case studies elucidate the approach: (i) disruption effect simulation for the Swiss energy grid, (ii) data-driven resilience of the urban transport system of Florence, and (iii) Ontario provincial resilience model in Canada. The approach comprises representative existing resilience concepts, definitions, quantifications as well as resilience generation and development processes. It supports the development of further refined resilience management and quantification processes and related improved methods in particular to cover jointly safety and security needs as well as their practical application to a wide range of socio-technical cyber-physical hybrid systems. This will foster credible certification of the resilience of critical infrastructure, of safety and security critical systems and devices.
Ivo Häring, Giovanni Sansavini, Emanuele Bellini, Nick Martyn, Tatyana Kovalenko, Maksim Kitsak, Georg Vogelbacher, Katharina Ross, Ulrich Bergerhausen, Kash Barker, Igor Linkov
Chapter 3. Redesigning Resilient Infrastructure Research
Abstract
Despite federal policy directives to strengthen the resilience of critical infrastructure systems to extreme weather and other adverse events, several knowledge and governance barriers currently frustrate progress towards policy goals, namely: (1) a lack of awareness of what constitutes resilience in diverse infrastructure applications, (2) a lack of judgement about how to create resilience, (3) a lack of incentives that motivate resilience creation, and (4) obstacles that prevent action or reform, even where incentives exist, within existing governance systems. In this chapter, we describe each of these barriers in greater detail and provide a catalog of theories for overcoming them. Regarding awareness, we contrast four different characterizations of resilience as rebound, robustness, graceful extensibility, and sustained adaptability. We apply Integral Theory to demonstrate the necessity of integrating multiple investigative perspectives. Further, we illustrate the importance of recognizing resilience as a set of processes, in addition to resources and outcomes, and the difficulty of measuring quality and quality of resilience actions. Regarding judgement, we position infrastructure as the principal mechanism by which human rights are realized as human capabilities, and propose applying theories of human development such as Maslow’s hierarchy of needs to identify the most critical infrastructure in terms of the services they provide to end users. Regarding a lack of incentives, we examine the modes and tools of financial analysis by which investments in resilience infrastructure may be prioritized and find two failings: the difficulty of estimating the monetary value of optionality, and the problem of exponential discounting of future cash flows. Regarding obstacles to action, we describe a hierarchy of adaptive actions applicable to physical infrastructure and the essential dimensions of organizational maturity that determine how these adaptive actions might be initiated. Additionally, we discuss the difficulty of education and training for resilient infrastructure systems and propose simulation gaming as an integrative research and education approach for capturing lessons learned from historical catastrophes, play-testing scenarios, sharing knowledge, and training a workforce prepared for the challenges of the post-industrial infrastructure age. Finally, we suggest establishing a National Network for Resilient Infrastructure Simulation to coordinate research and practice focused on interactive case studies in resilient infrastructure systems.
Thomas P. Seager, Susan Spierre Clark, Daniel A. Eisenberg, John E. Thomas, Margaret M. Hinrichs, Ryan Kofron, Camilla Nørgaard Jensen, Lauren R. McBurnett, Marcus Snell, David L. Alderson
Chapter 4. Designing Resilient Systems
Abstract
This chapter describes a method to approach the design of systems to ensure resilience. The state machine model describes a set of states in which a system may be situated and a set of transitions between those states which represent the response of the system to either events of threat applied to the system or restorative, maintenance or management actions taken in interaction with the system. The method is based on the analysis of systems proposals using a state machine description of resilience which is presented in the first major section of this chapter. Systems are developed to provide specific capabilities, usually a set of cognate capabilities that are either, or both, capabilities which belong together as a set or which are usefully grouped together to provide improved value from the system compared with only building the system to provide for its primary purpose. The design approach described in this chapter extends the normal design activities required to design a system to provide the specified capability with design and analysis activities required to ensure that the system provides the required resilience characteristics.
Scott Jackson, Timothy L. J. Ferris

Infrastructure

Frontmatter
Chapter 5. Infrastructure Resilience Assessment, Management and Governance – State and Perspectives
Abstract
Rapid urbanisation worldwide has created a host of fundamental challenges, which in conjunction with natural or man-made disasters, now threaten the resilience of communities, cities, and mega-cities. Consider the first challenge of climate change which has undermined the fundamental assumptions used to design the engineered systems that currently define the critical functionalities of cities today, and for tomorrow will demand innovative paradigms and new assumptions for designing resilient cities of the future. Another challenge concerns the damages directly or indirectly associated with natural and man-made disasters. These damages are expected to escalate as long as the value at risk continues to increase. And then there is the challenge of surging connectivity within and between critical infrastructure systems which has left such systems interdependent and vulnerable to cascading failures and regime shifts which foment ill-defined changes in system functionality. Changes that include but are not limited to emergent disruptions of critical services, system damages and even system-wide failures. The purpose of this chapter is to propose a framework for understanding and assessing critical infrastructure system resilience, to introduce a vision of resilient governance, and to propose a framework for harnessing knowledge transfer and continuous learning as required of policymakers seeking to elucidate and promote best practices that shape desired behaviour from individuals, social systems, stakeholders and communities.
Significant findings are the following. First, a set of 10 questions (deca-tuple set) is formulated to frame resilience assessment and management concepts. The approach taken is analogous to that of the triplet-question set of risk management. The deca-tuple question set serves to guide the work of resilience evaluation and analysis and even resilience building. The process of building resilience is, in fact, a collective action of public and private stakeholders responding to infrastructure disruptions. We propose a resilience assessment framework consisting of 5 phases: pre-assessment, appraisal, characterization and evaluation, management and communication. This framework follows that of the risk governance framework of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Building resilience requires continuous learning and adaptation from individuals, teams, organisations, governance and government systems. We propose three levels: knowledge transformation for policymaking, building best practices, and adapting individual behaviour. Authors identified several knowledge gaps for future scientific investigation in the domains of: context and framing, disruption identification, biophysical resilience analysis, cognitive resilience analysis, resilience evaluation, and building system resilience.
Hans R. Heinimann, Kirk Hatfield
Chapter 6. Engineering Resilience in Critical Infrastructures
Abstract
This short paper is a result of several intense days of discussion following a talk at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop “Resilience-Based Approaches to Critical Infrastructure Safeguarding”, which took place in Ponta Delgada, Portugal on June 26–29, 2016. This piece elaborates on the definition of resilience, the need for resilience in critical interdependent infrastructures, and on resilience quantification. An integrated metric for measuring resilience is discussed and strategies to build resilience in critical infrastructures are reviewed. These strategies are presented in the context of the research work carried out at the Reliability and Risk Engineering Laboratory, ETH Zurich, namely, (a) planning ahead for resilience during the design phase, (b) carrying out effective system restoration, (c) quickly recovering from the minimum performance level, (d) self-healing, adaptation and control, and (e) exploiting interdependencies among infrastructures. This paper embraces a fundamentally engineering perspective and is by no means an exhaustive examination of the matter. It particularly focusing on technical aspects and does not touch upon the rich work on community resilience and the possible measures to strengthen the response of communities to disasters.
Giovanni Sansavini
Chapter 7. Seaport Climate Vulnerability Assessment at the Multi-port Scale: A Review of Approaches
Abstract
In the face of climate change impacts projected over the coming century, seaport decision makers have the responsibility to manage risks for a diverse array of stakeholders and enhance seaport resilience against climate and weather impacts. At the single port scale, decision makers such as port managers may consider the uninterrupted functioning of their port the number one priority. But, at the multi-port (regional or national) scale, policy-makers will need to prioritize competing port climate-adaptation needs in order to maximize the efficiency of limited physical and financial resources and maximize the resilience of the marine transportation system as a whole. This chapter provides an overview of a variety of approaches that set out to quantify various aspects of seaport vulnerability. It begins with discussion of the importance of a “multi-port” approach to complement the single case study approach more commonly applied to port assessments. It then addresses the components of climate vulnerability assessments and provides examples of a variety of approaches. Finally, it concludes with recommendations for next steps.
R. Duncan McIntosh, Austin Becker
Chapter 8. Resilience of Critical Infrastructures: Benefits and Challenges from Emerging Practices and Programmes at Local Level
Abstract
Since the beginning of 2010 there has been a boom of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) with a goal of Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience (CIP-R) and Emergency Management (EM) in North America and partly in Europe and Australia as well. Currently having PPPs as one of the main ways to cope with CI interdependencies through engaging all stakeholders in order to build ‘full-spectrum’ resilience, it is important to look up to the best practices. Previous research has set the theoretical base of PPPs and claimed their high potential for enhancing CIP-R that is vastly unexploited due to challenges in their establishment and management. It is now necessary to move forward to studying partnerships’ practical side – common issues they face, ways to overcome them and concrete benefits they are able to bring. Through studying seven cases, this work compares different PPP approaches and their contribution to CIP-R. The study demonstrates how challenges are faced and solved in an innovative way and how the benefits are reached. It also shows approaches and joint activities that support information sharing and trust building as the main ingredients that hold partners together and enable progress in other aspects, from which both public and private parties may benefit. Starting from the findings and a subsequent analysis within and between the seven cases, the study proposes a framework for the development of regional CIP-R. programmes in the context of a PPP.
Paolo Trucco, Boris Petrenj

Social

Frontmatter
Chapter 9. Social Resilience and Critical Infrastructure Systems
Abstract
Resilience analysis and thinking serve as emerging conceptual frameworks relevant for applications assessing risk. Connections between the domains of resilience and risk assessment include vulnerability. Infrastructure, social, economic, and ecological systems (and combined social-ecological systems) are vulnerable to exogenous global change, and other disturbances, both natural and anthropologically derived. Resilience analysis fundamentally seeks to provide the groundwork for a ‘soft landing’, or an efficient and robust restoration following disturbance as well as the ability to reduce harms while helping the targeted system rebound to full functionality as quickly and efficiently where possible. Such applications are consistent with The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) definition of resilience, which more broadly denotes the field as “the ability to plan and prepare for, absorb, recover from, and adapt to adverse events” (Larkin S, Fox-Lent C, Eisenberg DA, Trump BD, Wallace S, Chadderton C, Linkov I (2015) Benchmarking agency and organizational practices in resilience decision making. Environ Sys Decisions 35(2):185–195). Given this definition, we seek to describe how resilience analysis and resilience thinking might be applied to social considerations for critical infrastructure systems. Specifically, we indicate how resilience might better coordinate societal elements of such infrastructure to identify, mitigate, and efficiently recover from systemic shocks and stresses that threaten system performance and service capacity.
Benjamin D. Trump, Kelsey Poinsatte-Jones, Meir Elran, Craig Allen, Bojan Srdjevic, Myriam Merad, Dejan M. Vasovic, José Manuel Palma-Oliveira
Chapter 10. Societal Resilience: From Theory to Policy and Practice
Abstract
Societal resilience is defined in this essay as the capacity of communities to flexibly contain major disruptions and to rapidly bounce back and forward following the unavoidable decline of their core functionalities. The article examines the ways to translate the theory to a clear and determined policy and hence implementation in the field, before the disruption occurs and henceforth. While the theory is necessarily universal in nature, its practical ramifications are presented within the Israeli context. It is suggested that the Israeli scene, being challenged for decades by protracted terror, as a man made recurrent hazard, can be perceived as a national laboratory for practicing societal resilience.
Meir Elran
Chapter 11. Planning Resilient Communities
Abstract
Our world is changing. Extreme events are becoming less predictable with greater consequences. Infrastructure hardening alone is proving both inadequate and unaffordable. Resilience is not about preventing change – change is inevitable – rather, it is about managing change and adapting, responding, and recovering from disruptive events. How we manage change will be defined by how we manage the risk context, using urban planning to reduce the consequence of shocks and stimulate the collective ability to respond and recover. By focusing on people and the community operations that support their lives as the essential purpose of resilience, we can focus our actions more effectively. Infrastructure is built to support a purpose. That purpose does not disappear during a shock. Therefore, we should plan and design infrastructure and services to support the continued delivery of that purpose. The net result is an holistic view of community function and how it can manage both stresses and shocks to protect livelihoods, continued prosperity and quality of life. In effect we propose a framework for planning resilient communities that can support society in an increasingly unpredictable world.
Alexander Hay, Antonio Gómez-Palacio, Nicholas Martyn
Chapter 12. Integration of Risk and Resilience into Policy
The Case of the Seine River FLOODS in Paris and the Ile de France Basin
Abstract
France still remembers well the major flood which happened in 1910 and the dramatic damages it created at that time. Today with 17 million people and nine million jobs potentially impacted by the key rivers floods, France is very exposed to flooding hazards and particularly the Paris and the Ile de France Basin. Several EU Member States share similar significant flood risk and experienced, indeed, in UK,Germany and Central Europe very large floodings creating several Billion Euro of damages and a significant number of casualties. The recognition of this important flood risk across many EU Member countries led to the establishment of the October 2007, European Directive which provided a general framework for public management of floods. And Member States were required to incorporate this Directive into national law by 2010.To benefit from its International competences a Review of Risk Management Policies was conducted by the OECD Directoriate for Public Governance and Territorial Development.This review was supported by the French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy and EU and led to a very comprehensive report published in 2014 providing a set of important recommendations on: governance of flood risk, on increasing resilience and on financing prevention. Based on the 2010 French law and helped by the recommendations of the OECD report the French government launched a National Flood Risk Management Strategy associating all flood management parties through the Joint Flood Commission (CMI). After a national public consultation the project of national strategy has been adopted on the 7th October 2014 by the Ministers of Environment, Interior, Agriculture and Housing. This document is the basis of the French Flood Management Policy at national, district, basin and local levels and actions plans have been devolopped accordingly over the whole country..To test the effectiveness of the Policies and actions put in place the Secretary General of the Paris Defense and Safety Zone (SGZDS) covering the whole Ile-de-France area organized an exercise simulating major Seine flooding in Ile-de-France basin.This exercise called EU SEQUANA lasted two whole weeks in 2016, March 7th–March 18th. More than 90 national and EU partners were involved in this project, most of them from vital importance sectors such as energy,water, transport, telecommunications….
Important recommandations to achieve better resilience of the flood risk management have been identified and will surely be integrated into future policies and processes.As an unexpected significant flood of the Seine River happened in May/June 2016, just after the EU SEQUANA exercise,some of the recommendations already implemented could be confirmed.
Raymond Nyer, Charles Baubion, Bérangère Basin, Adeline Damicis, Sonia Maraisse, Mathieu Morel, Emmanuel Vullierme
Chapter 13. Realising Critical Infrastructure Resilience
Abstract
The discourse of resilience has increasingly been utilised to advance the political prioritisation of enhanced security and to extend the performance of risk management in the Anthropocene. This has been notably advanced through integrated approaches that engage with uncertainty, complexity and volatility in order to survive and thrive in the future. Within this context, and drawing on findings from a number of EU-wide research projects tasked with operationalising critical infrastructure resilience, this paper provides a much-needed assessment of how resilience ideas are shaping how critical infrastructure providers and operators deal with complex risks to ‘lifeline’ systems and networks, whilst also illuminating the tensions elicited in the paradigm shift from protective-based risk management towards adaptive-based resilience. In doing so, we also draw attention to the implications of this transition for organisational governance and for the political ecologies of the Anthropocene that calls for more holistic, adaptable and equitable ways of assessing and working with risk across multiple systems, networks and scales.
Jon Coaffee, Jonathan Clarke

Cyber

Frontmatter
Chapter 14. Bridging the Gap from Cyber Security to Resilience
Abstract
This chapter describes an evolution of practices in community and business assurance from protective programs based upon risk management to the emerging strategy of resilience. The chapter compares and contrasts these two basic approaches, identifying notable gaps where cyber security lags in the larger transformation. Recommendations address concepts, techniques, and strategies for integration of the cyber world with the physical and human worlds, and opportunities for future research.
Paul E. Roege, Zachary A. Collier, Vladyslav Chevardin, Paul Chouinard, Marie-Valentine Florin, James H. Lambert, Kirstjen Nielsen, Maria Nogal, Branislav Todorovic
Chapter 15. Cyber-Transportation Resilience. Context and Methodological Framework
Abstract
Cyber systems are gaining relevance in the Transportation field, to the point of being embedded in every level of traditional transportation systems. This new paradigm, defined as cyber-transportation, represents an opportunity for improving system performances in mobility, safety and environment; nevertheless, it also opens a door to new threats and risks. In this chapter, the interactions, the dependences and the synergies created by the cyber and the transportation systems are analysed under the perspective of resilience analysis.
Maria Nogal, Alan O’Connor
Chapter 16. Resilience and Fault Tolerance in Electrical Engineering
Abstract
As a result of the increased importance of engineered electrical systems to modern civilization, it is necessary to design systems that sustain ideal levels of performance despite the potential for internal faults and external attacks. Designing systems that exhibit resilience, also known as fault tolerance, is the primary method by which optimal performance is preserved despite adverse conditions. This paper is a review of a variety of computational and electromechanical fault tolerance techniques from the literature in order to evaluate the state of the art and identify potential areas for improvement. Our findings suggest that the existing literature has only focused on a limited number of resilience challenges, and that no single resilience-enhancing solution, either hardware- or software-based, is capable of addressing all of the major types of possible faults. Further, we classify the papers using the resilience matrix, which combines four resilience phases put forth by the National Academy of Sciences and four Network Centric Warfare domains. We identify the matrix components insufficiently addressed: particularly, we have found no relevant literature on the cognitive and social domains. Even within the parts of the resilience matrix that have received attention in the literature to date, we observe that there is relatively less emphasis placed on the adaptation of the computational and electromechanical systems so that a repeated fault will not incur significant disruption in subsequent occurrences. Therefore, based on this review, we find that while significant and sustained attention has been dedicated to enhance the resilience of engineering electrical systems, substantial work remains to fully address resilience challenges that instill confidence in our ability to engineer resilient systems.
Niels P. Zussblatt, Alexander A. Ganin, Sabrina Larkin, Lance Fiondella, Igor Linkov

Applications

Frontmatter
Chapter 17. Building Resilience Through Risk Analysis
Abstract
Resilience is the ability of systems and organizations to maintain an acceptable level of service in spite of crises or adverse operating conditions and to recover quickly in the event that service falls below acceptable standards. By creating network models of infrastructure, resources and processes, it is possible to prioritize risks and identify critical vulnerabilities in processes, organizations and systems. Consequently, network models can be used to create effective plans for improving resilience. The main idea is to use a directed graph to construct a network risk model that can be used to identify the most effective options for improving resilience. Methods and tools for building and analyzing such models will be presented along with an actual case study of a supply chain in Afghanistan.
Philip F. O’Neill
Chapter 18. Enhancing Organizational Resilience Through Risk Communication: Basic Guidelines for Managers
Abstract
RESILENS is a project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme for the development of tools that support managers with the improvement of resilience pertaining to Critical Infrastructure (CI). One of the tools developed by this project is the European Resilience Management Guidance (ERMG). This tool guides several topics (e.g. risk management, budget and financial issues, information management systems, business continuity, and risk communication) related to the practical application of resilience to all CI sectors. This paper, which was developed as an input for the ERMG, presents some guidelines on risk communication that can be useful to managers.
D. Antunes, J. M. Palma-Oliveira, I. Linkov
Chapter 19. Integrative Education Model for Resources and Critical Infrastructure Protection Based on Risk Assessment, Resources Valorization and Threat Ranking
Abstract
Efficient and effective resource protection from the perspective of society usually involves minimizing costs and capital commitment in any way, while maximizing the percentage of resource utilization. Effective resource management from the perspective of the environment means leaving them in their natural, intact, state. On the other hand, effective and efficient resource protection management activities from the perspective of the army involve efficient resource protection measures during peacetime, emergencies, and even wartime. The aim of this paper is to help develop an adaptive, integrative education model for resource protection, addressing the contemporary needs both within the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and Ministry of environmental protection (MEP) of the Republic of Serbia. The paper offers an in-depth analysis of related core terms: improvement of the current approach to the subject area, nature of the resources that are subject to protection, and different modalities of protection. The applied methodology consists of comparative analysis, statistical methods, and multi-criteria evaluation and assessment. Core determinants (ranking) within the defined model are specified by means of expert judgments method. Obtained results are intended to be used in further implementation processes regarding the developed model.
Dejan Vasovic, Goran L. Janackovic, Stevan Musicki
Chapter 20. “Valuation of Imminience Analysis in Civil Aircraft Operations”
Abstract
Presented article attempts to execute the first stage of risk management for civil air operations. Therefore it is necessarily to identify and classify external sources of hazards. Risk management is one of the most important tools of modern systemic approach to process modeling. Generally, it may be described as a system of interrelated actions and decisions aimed at integration and coordination of processes in the organization, in cooperation with the external parties. The aim of management is therefore to improve the proficiency, effectiveness and efficiency of the operation and – in the case of risk management arising from the transport processes – to improve flight safety. The publication describes a proposal of risk management method in air transport including analysis of threats to civil air operations.
Eugeniusz Piechoczek, Katarzyna Chruzik
Chapter 21. Resilience Needs in NATO Partner Countries, Global and African Future Earth
Abstract
Research now demonstrates that the continued functioning of the Earth System, as it has supported the well-being of the human civilization in recent centuries, is at risk. Resilience is thus needed in NATO Partner Countries on national, regional, and global dimensions.
Global Future Earth as an international scientific community, under the umbrella of the International Council of Science Union (ICSU), is responsible to help modify the Earth System to avoid future risks. The purpose of the Africa Future Earth Committee (AFEC) is to be an effective advocate for Future Earth (FE) in Africa, as well as for African interests in the global Future Earth platform. Resilience needs in Future Earth community is very important to avoid the present and future disaster risks, especially in Africa with poor facilities of infrastructure.
Ahmed A. Hady
Chapter 22. Contribution to Enhancement of Critical Infrastructure Resilience in Serbia
Abstract
This chapter provides an overview of the current situation with critical infrastructure (CI) resilience in the Republic of Serbia, with an emphasis on the possibilities for utilizing the social behaviour in improving CI resilience through the cyber component. It argues that the response to an incident and its impact, as the critical phase in estimating, defining and improving resilience, could play a critical role in enhancing and providing guidance for the CI security in Serbia. To provide a necessary platform, CI resilience should be a main pillar of the new contemporary Law about Critical Infrastructure. On the other hand, the cyber segment is the fastest growing component of CI, making it extremely important for resilience-based CI safeguarding. The pace of technological improvements in the cyber area is not adequately followed by most of its users and their behaviour, making the human factor a constantly growing risk that often renders even the most advanced technological protection measures obsolete. Therefore the strengthening of the social component, followed by appropriate legislation, could provide the required edge in improving the overall resilience of critical infrastructures as the ultimate target.
Branislav Todorovic, Darko Trifunovic, Katarina Jonev, Marina Filipovic
Chapter 23. Risk and Resiliency Assessment of Urban Groundwater Supply Sources (Ponds) by Structured Elicitation of Experts Knowledge
Abstract
Management/operation failures of urban water supply infrastructure, especially pressurized sub system for distribution of drinking water from groundwater sources (ponds), may have severe social and economic consequences if risk and resilience scenarios are not properly considered during planning, design and/or operation phases. Physical and sanitary protection of ponds is permanent requirement for ensuring proper functioning of ponds and connected distribution network in the city. Because emergency situations may arise in case of natural or other disturbances or disasters, it is of particular importance to identify in advance key risk factors that can cause failures, and also to take into account what should be recovery time once the system is out of order for certain period(s) of time. Being aware that use of expert knowledge in assessing possible risk and resilience scenarios is essential and highly recommended in case of urban water supply of the City of Novi Sad in Serbia, this paper demonstrates how the method for structured elicitation, developed by Smith et al. (Heliyon 1(2015):e00043, 2015), can be used to evaluate important risk and resilience factors within the group decision making process. Namely, there is a plan for enlarging the capacity of one of the three existing ponds within the city area, and we are proposing an application of structured elicitation procedure to properly consider possible risks in operating this important critical part of urban infrastructure. We show that method is sufficiently intuitive in capturing experts’ uncertainty, efficient in generating agreement and convenient for communicating the results to the decision-makers. Simulation of decision-making process with three participating experts is aimed to convince city managers and other responsible authorities that recommended use of the method is not only scientifically justified, but also easy and efficient to implement in practice.
Z. Srdjevic, B. Srdjevic, M. Rajic
Chapter 24. Simulating Reservoir System Operation Under Given Scenarios to Determine Operating Policy with the ‘Good’ Resilience
Abstract
This chapter provides findings of authors in real-life engineering-style performed assessment of the resilience of complex multipurpose water systems with surface reservoirs. The chapter identifies main steps in modeling the problem in view of water users and operators needs arising in both planning and management phases of the system development and operation. A case study example from Serbia is provided to illustrate authors’ approach in creating required input for running computerized river basin simulation models to determine satisfactory operation of reservoirs measured by achieving a ‘good resilience’ at given demand point within the system.
B. Srdjevic, Z. Srdjevic, B. Todorovic
Metadata
Title
Resilience and Risk
Editors
Igor Linkov
José Manuel Palma-Oliveira
Copyright Year
2017
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Electronic ISBN
978-94-024-1123-2
Print ISBN
978-94-024-1122-5
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-024-1123-2

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