Southeast Asian Responses to U.S.-China Tech Competition: Hedging and Economy-Security Tradeoffs

The economy-security nexus is at the core of U.S.-China technology competition. Both powers view economy and security as interconnected; both consider technology as the determining factor in turning this nexus to their advantage. Both aim to win the tech competition by seeking different forms of “decoupling” from each other—the United States proactively, China reactively. Simultaneously, however, both are pursuing an integrative policy towards other states—the United States with “likeminded” nations, China primarily with Global South countries. Southeast Asia, which is at the center of these competing courtships, faces both opportunities and risks. This article focuses on the policy choices of selected ASEAN states’ regarding 5G wireless technology as an instance of the responses of non-big powers to big-power tech competition. Its findings indicate that while the key ASEAN states have all responded by hedging, there are significant differences: Vietnam and to some extent Singapore have hedged more heavily (than Indonesia, Malaysia and other states) by excluding China from their 5G networks, but continued to engage China in other cooperation. Why do Southeast Asian states hedge differently vis-a-vis hi-tech competition? The article argues that the states’ responses are attributable to the politically-defined economy-security tradeoffs, as driven primarily by their respective ruling elites’ pathways of legitimation and other internal attributes.