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Minds and Machines

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16-10-2021 | Original Article

The Automated Laplacean Demon: How ML Challenges Our Views on Prediction and Explanation

Authors: Sanja Srećković, Andrea Berber, Nenad Filipović

Published in: Minds and Machines | Issue 1/2022

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Abstract

Certain characteristics make machine learning (ML) a powerful tool for processing large amounts of data, and also particularly unsuitable for explanatory purposes. There are worries that its increasing use in science may sideline the explanatory goals of research. We analyze the key characteristics of ML that might have implications for the future directions in scientific research: epistemic opacity and the ‘theory-agnostic’ modeling. These characteristics are further analyzed in a comparison of ML with the traditional statistical methods, in order to demonstrate what it is specifically that makes ML methodology substantially unsuitable for reaching explanations. The analysis is given broader philosophical context by connecting it with the views on the role of prediction and explanation in science, their relationship, and the value of explanation. We proceed to show, first, that ML disrupts the relationship between prediction and explanation commonly understood as a functional relationship. Then we show that the value of explanation is not exhausted in purely predictive functions, but rather has a ubiquitously recognized value for both science and everyday life. We then invoke two hypothetical scenarios with different degrees of automatization of science, which help test our intuitions on the role of explanation in science. The main question we address is whether ML will reorient or otherwise impact our standard explanatory practice. We conclude with a prognosis that ML would diversify science into purely predictively oriented research based on ML-like techniques and, on the other hand, remaining faithful to anthropocentric research focused on the search for explanation.

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When discussing ML, we will take ANNs as the paradigmatic, and most popular type of model which implements machine learning, although our conclusions can, if needed, be (more or less successfully) transferred to other similar methods.

A similar attitude is reflected even in the everyday context. There is empirical evidence suggesting that there are consistent expectations of citing causes in everyday explanations (Miller, 2017).

The xAI literature is not always clear on whether the explanandum is the whole process or only its outcome. Since not understanding the process leads to not understanding the outcome, i.e., the decision, they are tightly connected and thus often addressed jointly. However, depending on the context, the ML process can be considered either as an explanandum, or it could be cited in an explanans of a particular outcome. Such considerations are irrelevant for our present purposes. Here we will refer only to the ML process as an explanandum which is lacking an explanans.

Of course, experts in the fields who participate in the design or debugging of ML models understand the general mechanism through which these models work, and in that sense, to them these models are more appropriately described as ‘grey’ rather than black boxes. However, there are aspects of the functioning of ML models that even the experts in the field do not have complete access to, and these aspects concern the paths through which the model proceeds from input to output. For example, even simple devices like calculators can be non-transparent to the end-users in the sense that they do not know how the device is made nor can they mentally follow a mathematical operation because it is too complicated. However, when we get a certain output from an input using a calculator, every step leading from that particular input to that particular output is known and can be explicated. In the case of ML, the path leading from the input to the output is not available. This is based on the fact that the internal logic of the model is altered as it ‘learns’ from the data, and it is what separates ML from other technological tools (Burrell, 2016).

By complexity we refer to a general notion of complexity of a method (which is based on a great number of layers, operations, and data involved in the ML processes), not the technical concept of computational complexity which could be measured in various ways (e.g. Kolmogorov complexity).

It is intractable to test all paths in software systems, which contain more than about 10⁸ paths (which is about 300 lines of code), and it should be noted that most software systems used in science are much larger than that (Symons and Horner, 2014).

The development of various xAI tools should, in principle, alleviate the model’s opacity to a degree, since it would hopefully lead to more transparent processes, and full or partial detection of correlations (Zednik, 2021). This, of course, would be helpful only providing that the calculations of the xAI techniques are based on the same parameters as the ML models, which they are meant to explain, and not only on the input–output trends as pointed out by some more pessimistic views (Rudin, 2019). Since the development of xAI tools is a fast-growing area because of the numerous ethical considerations (see Sect. 2), such explanatory tools could be a thing of the not-too-distant future. The potential solution which the xAI techniques could provide is, unfortunately, somewhat limited, since it addresses only the obstacles posed by the lack of epistemic access. However, it could be the first step in extracting knowledge on causal relations from the ML model. To address other obstacles such as the mismatch between the explanatory and predictive modeling, other paths and techniques would need to be devised.

The massive datasets ML systems learn from are often referred to by the term ‘big data’, meaning “rapidly collected, complex data in such unprecedented quantities that terabytes (1012 bytes), petabytes (1015 bytes) or even zettabytes (1021 bytes) of storage may be required” (Wyber et al., 2015; Leonelli, 2020).

On the other hand, Trout argues that the close connection between the explanations and understanding should not be taken for granted. He argues that since a sense of understanding could be the result of various cognitive biases, we sometimes become overconfident in our explanations as a result of the biases that lead to understanding (Trout, 2002). By such a view, we should not consider that explanation and understanding are so closely tied. We understand Trout's suggestion as a warning that understanding should not be the only measure of the value of explanation because our sense of understanding can be misleading. Thus, if we relied only on understanding as the source of the value of an explanation, many misinterpretations would seem more plausible than some other correct but, say, more complex explanations. However, even if a sense of understanding should not be the only measure of the value of an explanation, as suggested by Trout, understanding that an explanation brings, nevertheless, makes a significant contribution to its value.

Discussing intrinsic value needs more caution than seems present in the literature. Some of the views assign intrinsic value to explanations and proceed to describe it in terms of some other value such as understanding (e.g. Hempel 1962; Strevens 2008; Lombrozo 2011). We do not consider these as proper intrinsic-value views. For explanation to qualify as intrinsically valuable, the value needs to be assigned to explanation per se, regardless of any relations it bears to other related concepts. Other views, which take explanations as bona fide intrinsically valuable, consider them as rewarding in themselves, and “may be sought out as such, even by the youngest of children, with no further agenda” (Keil, 2006, p. 234; See also Gopnik, 1998). If such views are correct, then it seems unlikely that the value of explanation could be impacted by some non-explanatory tool such as ML, since its value is not dependent on its relations to anything else. However, the already existing discussion on the impact of predictive methods such as ML on the explanatory practice in science, as well as the major historical discussions on the value of explanation and its relationship with prediction seem to be based on the belief that such views are not quite convincing, and we will proceed the inquiry in the directions implicated by these discussions.

We thank the anonymous reviewer for pointing out this possibility to us.

Admittedly, we needed to tweak the specifications of the Laplace’s demon to make a proper analogy with ML: the fact that at least some parts of his internal processes are available to us, and that he does not conclude by knowing the laws of nature (as in the original), but by capturing correlations among the data. We chose to do this in contrasting the Laplacean demon to a clairvoyant in order to focus primarily on what we found important for the epistemological analysis of the justification of ML predictions. Namely, the exact ways through which the predictions are reached—the fact that this method is designed by scientists according to a sound methodology, rather than through some kind of ‘magic’ or clairvoyance—emphasizes an aspect of ML which is important for justifying the method itself.

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Title: The Automated Laplacean Demon: How ML Challenges Our Views on Prediction and Explanation
Authors: Sanja Srećković
Andrea Berber
Nenad Filipović
Publication date: 16-10-2021
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Minds and Machines / Issue 1/2022
Print ISSN: 0924-6495
Electronic ISSN: 1572-8641
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11023-021-09575-6

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