While this initial phase of the Drawdown Georgia project has achieved a great deal, more work is needed. This concluding section begins by discussing the strengths and limitations of the downselect process used to identify high-impact 2030 solutions for Georgia. The paper ends with a short discussion of planned next steps.
Validity
This working paper documents the first assessment of the Project Drawdown’s 102 global solutions in terms of their applicability and potential if implemented in an individual US State. By developing, executing, and documenting a rigorous and replicable methodology for identifying high-impact solutions for 2030, Drawdown Georgia paves the way for other states to jumpstart similar assessments.
As other states consider replicating this process, the strengths and weaknesses of Drawdown Georgia’s downselection process must be considered. Key among the strengths of Drawdown Georgia is its use of public domain data and publicly available analytical tools. The authors of this paper are all academics with no conflicts of interest that might cause bias in the design and conduct of this study.
Another strength of Drawdown Georgia is its innovative assessment of bundles of solutions that more closely align with decision-making institutions at the state and local levels. Without bundling, the use of a 1-Mt minimum threshold would have precluded many modestly impactful technologies that, if implemented today, could lead to significant reductions on their own by 2030. In an effort to not exclude numerous small-scale solutions, collections of solutions were considered. For example, retrofitting of existing buildings includes a group of solutions, such as improving building automation, insulation, recommissioning, and installing LED lighting. These solutions, while not as effective individually in contributing to the 1-Mt threshold, are able to make significant reductions when considered together.
A third strength is that, by highlighting actions that can deliver impact by 2030, we are offering policymakers and practitioners a menu of solutions that can be implemented in the very near term, which is increasingly important in light of the scientific community’s findings that we need to act quickly to achieve even the 2 °C target, let alone the 1.5 °C target.
On the other hand, there are at least four limitations that warrant consideration as our findings are examined by stakeholders in Georgia and elsewhere.
First, the downselection process emphasizes the ability of solutions to deliver carbon reductions by the year 2030. This timeframe excludes solutions that may not be technologically or market ready in Georgia in the near term, but have real potential to play a meaningful role in later decades. This includes solutions such as offshore wind and direct air capture of CO2. Our focus on the near term should not divert attention away from the need to consider long-term solutions going forward. Other solutions are too small to meet the 1-Mt threshold individually, and bundling is not a logical solution. Examples are the construction of zero-energy buildings and the use of engineered wood in construction: it is unlikely that enough new buildings will be constructed by 2030 to meet the emission-reduction threshold. Similarly, the widespread use of biochar in crop or marginal lands with an affordable price tag will unlikely store enough carbon in the soil by 2030. Managed and regenerative grazing of livestock could offer low-carbon, meat-based diet to people, but such a solution requires decades of commitment to regenerative farming practices.
We recognize that today’s challenges are largely a product of past investment patterns and caution that near-term solutions may “lock-in” and pose barriers to the deployment of superior longer-term, transformative changes (Markolf et al.
2018, Brown et al.,
2008). The technologies introduced over the next decade will become incumbent technologies with newly created support system that will make future transitions more difficult. For instance, natural gas cogeneration replacing coal-fired electricity over the next 10 years would reduce GHG emissions, but it could also lock in future emissions from natural gas technologies that could otherwise have eventually progressed to net-zero technologies such as renewables. Thus, it is important to be attentive to emerging technology trends and consider ways to facilitate and accelerate future transitions.
Second, examining each Drawdown solution in isolation can lead to over- or underestimates of carbon-reduction potential. A systems approach is critical to understanding the net impacts of multiple carbon mitigation actions.
Some solutions are “synergistic”. Here, successful deployment of one solution can magnify the carbon-reduction potential of another solution. On the one hand, there could be “emissions synergies” in which implementation of one solution (e.g., large-scale solar) boosts the emission-reduction potential of another (e.g., electric vehicles powered by a lower-carbon electric grid). On the other hand, there could be “implementation synergies” in which implementation of one solution (e.g., afforestation and silvopasture) can speed up or ease the implementation of another solution (e.g., coastal wetlands, which are healthier because of the pollution filtering of upstream forests).
Solutions can also be “competitive”. Here too, there can be “emissions competition”, in which implementing one solution (e.g., large-scale solar) reduces the emission reductions that can be achieved by another (e.g., building retrofitting, because the electricity that would be “saved”, would not be as carbon intensive). There can also be “implementation competition”, for example, when the successful reduction of food waste and the adoption of composting reduces organic matter at landfills, thereby reducing opportunities for landfill methane projects. Thus, there is a temporal dynamic to the rise and decline of individual solutions. Solutions can also compete for limited acreage in Georgia—e.g., for planting trees or building solar farms. As a result, strategic deployment of these solutions will be critical. Innovative siting options will be needed, such as The Ray’s pilot solar array on highway rights-of-way along West Georgia’s I–85 (
https://theray.org/). Innovative approaches to conflict resolution and citizen engagement may also be particularly valuable going forward. Future research needs to examine key social–ecological–technological system interactions (Markolf et al.
2018, Brown et al., 2008). Optimizing solution impacts to include beyond-carbon benefits can enable transitioning to a more sustainable economy and healthier future generations.
Third, our analysis to date does not consider all of the potential leakage or life-cycle impacts of each Drawdown solution that can occur outside of Georgia. Perhaps, the simplest example of possible carbon leakage is if a Drawdown solution were to increase energy prices in Georgia. If this change results in an energy-intensive industry relocating to another state with a more carbon-intensive energy system, then the net savings of the solution should be diminished, but we do not make such an adjustment. A first step toward addressing this limitation would be to consider whether the emissions occur in Georgia or out of state (i.e., deemed emissions or logistic emissions), as well as whether they are the result of goods and services consumed in the state (i.e., direct emissions) or out of state (i.e., responsible emissions) (Sovacool and Brown
2010). In national accounting of carbon metrics, the IPCC distinguishes between territorial-based and consumption-based approaches (IPCC
2014, Fig. 5.14). The approach used in the Drawdown Georgia assessment is more territorial than consumption-based, although inconsistencies occur because necessary data and modeling tools are sometimes unavailable.
Finally, the Project Drawdown approach is fundamentally focused on the potential for cost-competitive reductions of net carbon emissions. In Drawdown Georgia, we expanded this framework by systematically identifying material “beyond-carbon” considerations. However, we recognize that the list of top 20 solutions may have been different if the primary solution selection criterion was not reducing carbon, but rather maximizing health impacts, promoting environmental and social justice, or optimizing job creation potential. In addition, our “beyond-carbon” analysis is qualitative and does not provide a quantification of beyond-carbon costs and benefits. As such, it may have resulted in the selection of high-impact 2030 solutions that have significant co-costs as well as the elimination of solutions that have significant cobenefits. Subsequent analysis is needed to determine the magnitude of this limitation.