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Published in: Public Choice 1-2/2019

22-02-2018

Why Arrow’s theorem matters for political theory even if preference cycles never occur

Author: Sean Ingham

Published in: Public Choice | Issue 1-2/2019

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Abstract

Riker (Liberalism against populism, Waveland, New York, 1982) famously argued that Arrow’s impossibility theorem undermined the logical foundations of “populism”, the view that in a democracy, laws and policies ought to express “the will of the people”. In response, his critics have questioned the use of Arrow’s theorem on the grounds that not all configurations of preferences are likely to occur in practice; the critics allege, in particular, that majority preference cycles, whose possibility the theorem exploits, rarely happen. In this essay, I argue that the critics’ rejoinder to Riker misses the mark even if its factual claim about preferences is correct: Arrow’s theorem and related results threaten the populist’s principle of democratic legitimacy even if majority preference cycles never occur. In this particular context, the assumption of an unrestricted domain is justified irrespective of the preferences citizens are likely to have.

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Footnotes
1
See section III ‘What is the problem of social choice?’ in Arrow’s (1963) edition of the monograph.
 
2
This characterization of definitions precludes those under which, in some circumstances, the people lack a will. I return to this point below.
 
3
My argument also makes no claims about the manipulability of voting or the frequency with which different voting rules produce different outcomes from the same preferences; see Dowding (2006) for a discussion of these important elements of Riker’s argument.
 
4
For a theory of democratic legitimacy that engages with the challenges from social choice theory and identifies legitimacy with properties of the decision-making process, see Patty and Penn (2014).
 
5
Some of these counterfactual processes are highly improbable, but we have already ruled out probability as a criterion for determining relevance.
 
6
One should get off the train at this early juncture if one thinks facts about the popular will depend on more than just citizens’ rankings of the candidates. As is well-known in the context of social welfare functions, Arrow’s impossibility result can be avoided if the aggregation function has a richer informational base (Sen 1977).
 
7
For an interesting critique of independence and an argument for why the Borda count represents a plausible interpretation of the popular will, see Saari (2003), especially pp. 342–349.
 
8
See the discussion of the maximal set and conditions for its nonemptiness in Austin-Smith and Banks (1999, ch. 1).
 
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Metadata
Title
Why Arrow’s theorem matters for political theory even if preference cycles never occur
Author
Sean Ingham
Publication date
22-02-2018
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Public Choice / Issue 1-2/2019
Print ISSN: 0048-5829
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7101
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-018-0521-9

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