2.1 Overview
This section presents canonical examples of abduction (2.2), reviews representative contributions from informal logic, pragma-dialectics, and artificial intelligence (2.3), points out the link between abduction and IBE (2.4), and identifies a regular IBE tradition (2.5).
2.3 Three Argument Schemes for Abduction
As a crucial concept in argumentation theory, an argument scheme roughly corresponds to a classical
topos (Perelman and Olbrechts-Tyteca
1969; van Eemeren and Grootendorst
1992; Walton
1996; van Eemeren et al.
2014). It provides “an abstract characterization of the way in which in a particular type of argumentation a premise used in support of a standpoint is related to that standpoint in order to bring about a transfer of acceptance from that premise to the standpoint” (van Eemeren et al.
2014, 19).
Argumentation schemes generate evaluative potential in virtue of their associated critical questions (CQs). Answering a scheme’s CQs positively for a scheme-instance fulfills a necessary condition to transfer the acceptability of the premises to the conclusion.
2 So if stated premises are deemed acceptable, this creates a warranted expectation, or presumption, that a respondent who continues to doubt the conclusion present reasons to support her stance.
In discussing the “abductive argumentation scheme” as a species of the genus “inference to the best explanation” (IBE), Walton (
2001; see Walton et al.
2008) characterizes three stages of abductive inference. It “begins from a set of premises that report observed findings or facts—the known evidence in a given case,” upon which one “searches […] among various explanations […] for these facts,” and finally “selects out the so-called ‘best’ explanation and draws a conclusion that the selected explanation is acceptable as a hypothesis” (Walton
2001, 144).
He distills the three steps into this scheme (ibid., 162),
F is a finding or given set of facts.
E is a satisfactory explanation of F.
No alternative explanation E′ given so far is as satisfactory as E.
Therefore, E is plausible, as a hypothesis.
and evaluates instances of the abductive scheme in a dialogue model, using these CQs (ibid., 162):
CQ1: [Absolute merits of explanation:] How satisfactory is E as an explanation of F, apart from the alternative explanations available so far in the dialogue?
CQ2: [Relative merits of explanation:] How much better an explanation is E than the alternative explanations available so far in the dialogue?
CQ3: [Relative developmental state of dialogue:] How far has the dialogue progressed? If the dialogue is an inquiry, how thorough has the search been in the investigation of the case?
CQ4: [Comparative merit of continuing the dialogue:] Would it be better to continue the dialogue further, instead of drawing a conclusion at this point?
Walton’s CQs are based on criteria proposed by Josephson and Josephson (
1994), given below. Notice that, because in each of these CQs one can replace ‘dialogue’ by ‘explanation’ without loss of significance, the former term merely reflects Walton’s preferred theoretical perspective.
Addressing abduction from the pragma-dialectical perspective (van Eemeren and Grootendorst
1992,
2004; Hitchcock and Wagemans
2011), Wagemans (
2014) studies the relation between the abductive scheme’s premises and its critical questions, though calling it ‘pattern of argumentation based on abduction’ rather than ‘scheme’. It consists of two arguments, where ‘1’ marks the standpoint, ‘1.1’ the main argument, ‘1.1′’ expresses the justificatory force of 1.1, where the sub-standpoint 1.1′ is supported by 1.1′.1 and 1.1′.1′.
1
It may be hypothesized that Xi.
1.1′
Of possible explanations
X
1 −
X
n
, X
i is the best explanation of
Y.
1.1′.1
X
i
meets criteria C
1
− C
n
with scores S
1
− S
n
.
Wagemans’ pattern
prima facie improves Walton’s scheme because “‘generative’ as well as ‘selective’ abduction have their place [in it]” (ibid., 6). (For these terms, see Aliseda
2006.) Quoting Douven’s (
2011) remark on abduction, Wagemans submits that abduction should be viewed “not so much as a process of
inventing hypotheses but rather as one of
adopting hypotheses […] as […] worthy candidate[s] for further investigation” (Wagemans, after Douven; ibid., 3). Both thus suggest that abduction has two aspects, and Wagemans accordingly offers a “generative” and a “selective definition” that he draws into a single scheme, reserving ‘IBE’ for the selective aspect.
In the following, our main claim is that merely the generative aspect is properly abductive in Peirce’s sense, and that the selective aspect marks an important distinction between abduction and IBE.
Walton cites Josephson and Josephson (
1994), who characterize “[a]bduction, or
inference to the best explanation, [as] a form of inference that goes from data describing something to a hypothesis that best explains or accounts for the data” (ibid., 5). They offer this pattern:
D is a collection of data (facts, observations, givens).
H explains D (would, if true, explain D).
\( \underline{\text{No other hypothesis can explain}\,D\, \text {as\,well\,as}\,H\, \text{does}}\).
Therefore, H is probably true.
and also provide a list of “considerations” (ibid., 14), here reformulated as critical questions:
1.
Threshold How decisively does H surpass the alternatives?
2.
Internal merit How good is H by itself, independently of considering alternatives?
3.
Data reliability How trustworthy are data, respectively the processes by which data were obtained?
4.
Exhaustiveness How much confidence is there that all plausible explanations have been considered?
5.
Cost and Benefits What pragmatic considerations matter, including the costs of being wrong, and the benefits of being right?
6.
Gravity of issue How strong is the need to reach a conclusion, especially considering the possibility of seeking further evidence before deciding?
We discuss these critical questions below (Sect.
4.3). Presently, notice that Wagemans’ approach connects the hypothesis-generative aspect of abduction to the hypothesis-selective aspect of IBE. By contrast, Josephson and Josephson as well as Walton integrate abduction with IBE, making the former a part of the latter. In fact, they sometimes seem to treat both aspects as one.
We go on to discuss reasons for linking abduction with IBE.
2.4 What Links Abduction with IBE?
Walton appears to accept the link between abduction and IBE on the authority of Gilbert Harman (
1965), who is regarded to have established IBE as a theoretical category. Harman indeed states that “‘inference to the best explanation’ corresponds
approximately to what others have called ‘abduction’” (Harman
1965, 88;
italics added). However, his paper uses the term ‘abduction’ once—in the quote provided—but does not offer a substantial remark. Moreover, Walton appears to hold that the abduction-IBE-link squares with Peirce’s own understanding of abduction. For he lists both of Peirce’s examples (Sect.
2.2), and claims they are easily seen to follow the IBE pattern. Similarly, Wagemans starts “from the idea that abduction plays a key role in the process of finding explanations of observed facts.” Though distinguishing generative and selective aspects, he also acknowledges “a tradition in which abduction is described as a form of reasoning that involves the process of selection” (Wagemans
2014, 3). Josephson and Josephson finally define abduction as IBE from the outset.
3
A first reason for linking abduction with IBE thus refers to a tradition originating with Harman, a second (re)states Harman’s contention that both terms are approximately synonymous, and a third cites Peirce’s own work in support of this synonymy. We treat the third reason first, for the second stands or falls with evaluating it, then return to the first reason.
In Peirce’s examples (see Sect.
2), the fossil case offers the hypothesis (or supposition) that “the sea once [regularly] washed over this land,” but does not compare it with another hypothesis (e.g., fish being washed inland
once by a typhoon, or their remains being left behind by preying birds). Similarly, Peirce’s second example does not compare the focal hypothesis with other explanations why one might be “surrounded by four horsemen.” So it remains unclear why sea having once washed over land, or being the provincial governor, are the best explanatory hypotheses for these observations. Indeed, both examples, as well as text to which they are appended, fail to support that Peirce treated abduction as IBE by another name.
This provides sufficient grounds to also find the second reason unsupported, leaving the appeal to an IBE-tradition. So does Harman’s view on IBE (as approximately corresponding to Peirce’s view on abduction) reflect an IBE tradition?
2.5 What IBE Tradition?
Though relevant to several fields, the core of the theoretical discussion on abduction is in philosophy of science (Hintikka
1998; Aliseda
2006; Williamson
2003; Schurz
2008). In stating that “[…] many others contend that abduction,
construed as inference to the best explanation, is an essential part of scientific and everyday reasoning (Magnani
2001; Psillos
2000; Thagard
1992,
1999,
2000),” Thagard (
2007, 229;
italics added) names some contributors to the IBE tradition. Thagard included, these authors presuppose that abduction is (approximately) synonymous with IBE, or support this view—misleadingly, as we saw—with reference to Peirce.
Thagard (
2007) states that “Peirce […] used the term ‘abduction’ to refer to a kind of inference that involves the generation
and evaluation of explanatory hypotheses” (Thagard
2007, 226;
italics added), and thus “[…] to infer[ing] a hypothesis because it really is the best explanation of all the available evidence” (ibid., 4). Psillos (
2000) holds the same view. Although Thagard notes that Shelley (
1996) allegedly extended the meaning of ‘abduction’ in Peirce’s sense, Shelley submits that Peirce’s own figure already “describes the inference to […] the best explanation […]” (Shelley,
1996, 280f.). The forgoing at any rate provides sufficient grounds to speak of a regular IBE tradition, even if it misconstrues its origin.
Magnani (
2001) moreover distinguishes theoretical (including selective sentential and creative model-based) abduction from manipulative abduction. The latter term refers to “an extra-theoretical behavior that aims at creating communicable accounts of new experiences to integrate them into previously existing systems of experimental and linguistic (theoretical) practices” (ibid., 53). Though avoiding a claim to have inherited this distinction from Peirce, also he subsumes generation
and evaluation of hypotheses under ‘abduction’. In fact, Magnani challenges Peirce’s view by regarding hypothesis-conjecture and -evaluation as inseparable and intertwined processes. (We return to this in Sect.
3.3).
To further support that the IBE tradition over-interprets ‘abduction’, we now turn to how Peirce’s original sense of it changed.