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Erschienen in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 4/2014

01.05.2014 | Original Research

A simple correction of the WACC discount rate for default risk and bankruptcy costs

verfasst von: Christian Koziol

Erschienen in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting | Ausgabe 4/2014

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Abstract

Standard discounted cash flow approaches suffer from a rudimental modeling of the possibility of a default, as the main characteristics such as the default probability and potential bankruptcy costs are commonly disregarded. This paper aims at providing a tractable extension of the well-known WACC approach for both default risk and bankruptcy costs. The corrected WACC discount rate reveals that default risk results in a systematically higher WACC because the tax component is scaled by the survivorship probability and an aditional component for bankruptcy costs must be added. This difference between the classical WACC discount rate and the simple modified WACC rate can be remarkable especially for firms from businesses with high bankruptcy costs and a relevant default probability.

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Fußnoten
1
More recent papers about tax shields and bankruptcy costs are Fich and Slezak (2008), Báez-Díaz and Alam (2012), and Couch et al. (2012).
 
2
Noteworthy exceptions for DCF approaches dealing with bankruptcy are Cooper and Nyborg (2008), Molnar and Nyborg (2012). In these approaches the tax shield consequences for defaultable debt are quantified. However, the explicit default probability and bankruptcy costs are not considered and the resulting discount rate does not exhibit a tractable form.
 
3
Moosa and Li (2012) provide empirical determinants of firms’ capital structure choice.
 
4
The nominal interest rate c might contain a risk premium for default risk and bankruptcy costs. However, regardless of the size of c, the company cost of capital k V within the DCF approach ensure a consistent pricing of the firm value (see Fernandez (2012), topic 3) for the treatment of nominal interest rates.
 
5
In the case in which only a default and a survivorship with full use of tax shields occurs, the expected level of tax shields is equal to the survivorship probability p and the expected level of bankruptcy costs equal to the default probability 1 − p.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
A simple correction of the WACC discount rate for default risk and bankruptcy costs
verfasst von
Christian Koziol
Publikationsdatum
01.05.2014
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting / Ausgabe 4/2014
Print ISSN: 0924-865X
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7179
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-013-0356-x

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