1. A Study of Water Stress on Olive Growing Under the Effect of Climate Change in South East of Tunisia

Climate change (CC) is a main issue of interest at the international as well as the national levels. It is important at this stage to do research to analyze impacts and adaptation strategies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the water stress of olive groves within the context of CC in the South East of Tunisia (watershed of Oum Zessar, Medenine) using hydrological modeling (HidroMORE model). Data on rainfall and temperature were collected from available stations, while those for future scenarios (Horizons 2030 and 2090) were obtained using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CMIP5 (GFDL HIRAM C360). In comparison with the reference period (1996–2005) and projecting increases in temperature of 1 and 5 °C, as well as rainfall decreases of 5.4 and 20%, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was simulated to increase by 3–9% and evapotranspiration under non-standard conditions (ETCad_j) was reduced by 13% and 30%, respectively, for the 2030 and 2090 horizons. Thus, it is expected that the land suitable for olive cultivation will experience shrinkage and this cropping system would become increasingly problematic.