1 Introduction
2 Methodology
2.1 The Mediterranean region
Region | Water resources and irrigation withdrawal | Share of irrigation systems in % | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Irrigation water as % of total water withdrawal | Irrigation water withdrawal (km3/year) | Pressure on freshwater resources (%) | Reported overall irrigation efficiency (%) | Surface | Sprinkler | Drip | |
North | |||||||
Western Balkans and Turkey | 78.9 | 30.1 | 11.8 | 53.7 | 88.0 | 9.2 | 2.8 |
European Union | 39.3 | 48.6 | 10.2 | 65.4 | 42.1 | 29.7 | 24.4 |
South | |||||||
Middle East | 93.8 | 59.3 | 94.4 | 62.0 | 82.9 | 8.0 | 9.1 |
NW Africa | 78.2 | 16.7 | 30.2 | 66.2 | 81.7 | 11.7 | 6.6 |
2.2 CLUMondo model
2.3 Future population, climate, and food demand
North | South | |
---|---|---|
Population and built-up areas | + 19.5% | + 47.4% |
Climate change | RCP4.5 (S2) | RCP4.5 (S2) |
Annual and permanent crops | + 18.1% | + 40.2% |
Livestock | + 25.8% | + 23.8% |
2.4 Irrigation efficiency and water withdrawal scenarios
Scenario | Description |
---|---|
Reference | No improvements to irrigation efficiency and no decrease in water losses |
Sprinkler | Improvements to overall irrigation efficiency to decrease regional water loss to 28.7% of total water withdrawal. Based on the efficiency of sprinkler irrigation (Fader et al. 2016) |
Drip | Improvements to overall irrigation efficiency to decrease regional water loss to 14.5% of total water withdrawal. Based on the efficiency of drip irrigation (Fader et al. 2016) |
Deficit irrigation | No improvements to irrigation efficiency and no decrease in water loss. 27.4% reduction in water used on irrigated cropland, together with a 4% decrease in total output of irrigated cropland (Wriedt et al. 2009) |
2.5 Adaptation options in land management
Adaptation option | Description | Land system conversions |
---|---|---|
Implementing irrigation | Equipping cropland with irrigation | Rain-fed to irrigated cropland |
Changes to cropland intensity | Increase: increase in the intensity of rain-fed cropland | Extensive cropland to intensive rain-fed cropland |
Decrease: decrease in the intensity of cropland activities | Intensive rain-fed cropland to extensive cropland | |
Expansion: introducing cropland activities | Non-cropland to cropland land system | |
Abandonment: abandonment of cropland activities | All cropland types to non-cropland land system | |
Diversification | Introducing new activities on cropland or woodlands, e.g. livestock grazing | Mono-functional systems to multifunctional mosaic systems |
Changing functionality | Changing activities in multifunctional landscapes | Conversions within multifunctional mosaic systems |
3 Results
3.1 Implementing irrigation
3.2 Changes to cropland intensity
3.3 Diversification of agricultural activities and changes to multifunctionality
Reference | Sprinkler | Drip | Deficit | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | Reduced | Current | Reduced | Current | Reduced | Current | Reduced | |
Diversification of cropland systems | ||||||||
Extensive rain-fed cropland | 52.7 | 41.3 | 62.3 | 53.1 | 64.0 | 54.3 | 64.2 | 55.8 |
Intensive rain-fed cropland | 17.3 | 10.0 | 19.2 | 15.0 | 17.6 | 14.3 | 19.4 | 16.1 |
Irrigated cropland | 14.3 | 40.4 | 6.0 | 20.0 | 3.1 | 15.3 | 2.8 | 15.4 |
Changes to mosaic systems | ||||||||
Persistent mosaics | 68.6 | 65.0 | 66.5 | 66.3 | 64.2 | 65.9 | 63.9 | 65.8 |
Reduced MF | 7.7 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 5.7 |
Same MF level, different system | 15.4 | 15.8 | 17.8 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 17.4 |
Increased MF | 8.3 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 11.2 |
Converted to other system | 4.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.6 |