1 Introduction
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Loading unit: 20′/40′ ISO containers including reefers plus swap bodies 7.45 m (=25′), 13.60 m (=45′) 9′6″ hi-cube Euro-container module (equivalent to a standard tri-axle semi-trailer in terms of cargo volume and weight capability), including reefer models of aforementioned standard units.
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Freight Handling: Vehicle mounted horizontal transhipment - containermover 3000. Designated terminals are not required
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Goods Type: LDHV: Containerised, refrigerated, palletized
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Capacity management: Freight vehicles specifically carrying LDHV goods are assigned equal priority to passenger services. SPECTRUM trains/rail vehicles are able to accelerate and brake at passenger train equivalent speeds to maximise the use of available train paths. SPECTRUM train is able to use passenger specific lines and routes including loops/sidings.
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Operational pattern: See par. 3.2.2. Resourcing: Crew rostering will aim to maximise train/wagon productivity. Available systems to roster crews should be adopted. These ensure personnel with the right qualifications and skill sets are available to drive the trains with no loss of time awaiting crew arrival and thereby to maximise the train’s commercial capability.
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Condition monitoring (cargo): Cargo condition monitoring will include temperature monitoring of goods.
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Tracking and tracing: Train location in real time will be available to the operator for purposes of train planning, duty cycle rostering etc. In the event of disruption systems will inform shippers/receivers directly of any problem and indicate a revised estimated time of arrival (ETA). Shippers should be able to identify the location of their cargo/container/swap body/trailer in real time independently of the train operator and infrastructure manager.
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Wagon type: Un-powered flat platform wagons to accommodate hi-cube containers. The wagon will be modular to be able to accommodate a range of different end applications with modifications to accept containermover 3000 technology. Common chassis/frame, bogies, auxiliaries, braking systems and pipework/wiring should be mandatory. This might also include train control loops for any push-pull applications.
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Vehicle performance: The train will have speed characteristics similar to passenger vehicles this includes; acceleration (0.5 m/s2), maximum speed (140-160 km/h), average speed (120 km/h) and service braking/deceleration (0.7 m/s2). Axle load of 17 t.
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Vehicle configuration: Shorter loco hauled fixed formation (unbreakable) freight trains (max 10–15 vehicles).
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Condition monitoring (vehicle): Monitoring of oscillations/vibrations in the suspension system in relation to the ride quality for LDHV goods. Wagons will have individual condition monitoring for technical wellbeing including bearing temperatures.
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Traction: Electric loco with provision for last mile, terminal operations and off line (no electrical power supply) operations using diesel or battery power. For the purposes of interoperability the locomotive will have the capability to operate on a number of European voltages.
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Maintenance: SPECTRUM vehicles will be reliable and designed for extended operations with minimal routine maintenance. The remote condition monitoring will assist with the achievement of this and minimise in transit failures and failures with no warning. The design, materials, engineering and maintenance regime will reflect a commercial requirement for extended periods in operation with limited time allowed for this activity. The vehicles/trains will need to maximise their in service time. Maintenance and checks where required will be undertaken as the trains/wagons are being loaded or stripped. This could also apply to any fuel replenishment for any train requiring diesel fuel. Both maintenance and re-fuelling will come to the train rather than losing production time.
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Fiscal corrections: indirect taxes (e.g. VAT), subsidies and pure transfer payments (e.g. social security payments) must be deducted. However, prices should be gross of direct taxes.
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Benefits from the reduction of externalities: some impacts may be generated that spill over from the project to other economic agents without any compensation. These effects can either be negative (a new road increasing pollution levels) or positive (a new railway reducing traffic congestion on an alternative road link). As, by definition, externalities occur without monetary compensation, these are not present in the financial analysis and therefore need to be estimated and valued.
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Time savings: time benefits often represent the most important element of a transport project benefits. CBA considers time savings as a benefit, calculated on the basis of the estimation of the value of time for goods shifted from road to rail.
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Safety improvements: safety improvements and accident reduction, for modernisation projects, for both users and staff, have to be assessed and calculated as benefits of the project.
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From market to accounting (shadow) prices: besides fiscal distortions and externalities, other factors can drive prices away from a competitive market (i.e. efficient) equilibrium: monopoly regimes, trade barriers, labour regulation, incomplete information, etc. In all such cases, observed market prices are misleading; accounting (shadow) prices need to be used. Accounting prices are computed by applying conversion factors to the financial prices.
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Economic net present value (ENPV): should be greater than zero for the project to be desirable from an economic standpoint. From a mathematical point of view ENPV is
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Economic rate of return (ERR): should be greater than the social discount rate. ERR is calculated by solving with the process of trial-error the following formula and the meaning of letters is the same here as in NPV formula.
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Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C): should be greater than one. Another form of the ENPV criterion is called Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), which is, in effect, another way of comparing the present value of the proposed alternatives costs with benefits. Instead of calculating the ENPV by subtracting present value of Costs from the present value of Benefits we divide present value of Costs into the present value of Benefits. In mathematical terms:
1.1 Definition of specific elements of the CBA
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Time horizon: time horizon must be consistent with the economic life of the main assets. Although the investment horizon is often indefinite, in project analysis it is convenient to assume reaching a point in the future when all the assets and all the liabilities are virtually liquidated simultaneously. Conceptually, it is at that point that one can cost up the accounts and verify whether the investment was a success. As recommended by the “Guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects” of the European Commission the analysis will adopt as reference time horizon (years) for SPECTRUM (as a railway project) 30 years.1 Another necessary step is to set the base year of the analysis which often depends on availability of data - preferably as recent as possible. Hence, considering a reasonable time lapse to implement the SPECTRUM solution, the base year of the analysis is set at 2016 for the start of the operational phase.
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Discount rate: the discount rate that the analysis will adopt derives from the “Guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects” of the Directorate General Regional Policy of the European Commission, and is fixed at 3.5 %. 2
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Geographical scope: since the SPECTRUM solutions are elaborated, supported and fostered within the framework of the EC transport policy, the collectivity which costs and benefits should refer to, is the EU collectivity. The geographical scope, in principle, is therefore the European territory. Indeed, the rail services based on SPECTRUM solutions have been shown3 to have the potential to be conveniently implemented on certain corridors, whereas the current and foreseen market conditions in other parts of the European transport networks do not allow to realistically assume the possibility to expand SPECTRUM services. Therefore, the costs and benefits of the SPECTRUM solutions will be assessed at the service area level. In other words, the reference “universe” into which unit costs and revenues and unit benefits will be expanded is the one that includes the corridors previously defined, and we assume that such scope coincides with the magnitude of costs and benefits at the EU level. Hence, the analysis will cover 3 service areas i.e. a Swiss route (Service Area 1: Daillens – Chur, via Zurich), a Scandinavian route (Service Area 2: Hallsberg – Malmö – Copenhagen), and a route between Italy and France (Service Area 3: Turin – Lyon).
1.1.1 Costs
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Infrastructural costs: infrastructural investments concern:
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Development costs: these items derive from the technical definition of the SPECTRUM concepts and they define the overall expenditure for the physical implementation of the transportation tools. In practical terms, development costs regard the physical construction of the SPECTRUM train, and concern the engineering materials, needed to realize the service. In fact specific engineering tools will be applied to:
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The material of the body of the vehicle;
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The propulsion of the vehicle;
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The running gear and suspension system;
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The condition monitoring;
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The electrical systems and coupling;
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Tracking and tracing systems.
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Operating costs: the operating costs comprise all the data on the disbursements foreseen for the purchase of goods and services, which are not of an investment nature since they are consumed within each accounting period. They include the direct production costs (consumption of materials and services, personnel, maintenance, general production costs). At this stage, because of the early phase of the implementation of the project, administrative and general expenditures, sales and distribution expenditures are not considered.
Cost item | Conversion factor |
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Investment costs | |
Investment in terminals – Infrastructure | 0,867 |
Investment in terminals - Equipment | 0,918 |
Development costs | |
Investment per E-traction | 0,918 |
Investment for Steering Cap | 0,918 |
Operating costs | |
Cost of wagons (incl. Maintenance) | 0,918 |
Personnel costs | 0,747 |
Energy costs | 1,0 |
Shunting costs | 0,777 |
Transhipment costs | 0,867 |
Maintenance costs (traction units) | 0,835 |
Overhaul costs (traction units) | 0,835 |
Insurance costs (traction units) | 1,00 |
Maintenance costs (terminal infrastructure) | 0,835 |
Maintenance costs (terminal equipment) | 0,835 |
1.1.2 Benefits
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Average unit cost estimated from past studies and reflects the fact that regular rail costs less than road.
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Distances are expressed for one direction only and the calculation assumes, in consultation with experts in the field that each pre- and post-haulage leg is on average 75 km long. Since one of the main advantages of SPECTRUM is the multi-stop concept which brings freight closer to the service, the average pre−/post-haulage distance is shorter than the one assumed for the regular services (100 km).5
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The Values of Time are based on [12] figures (site specific), and take into account inflation. According to HEATCO, the average VoT of road (commodities transported by road) is higher than the VoT of rail (commodities transported by rail); the SPECTRUM train will, due to its shorter door to door time and higher reliability, attract some commodities from road. It is likely that the VoT of these commodities are not representative of the average of all commodities that are transported by road since in that case most of the road transport will shift to the SPECTRUM train. It is also likely that the value of SPECTRUM commodities is not the average of the commodities that are transported by regular rail, since in that case it is likely that these commodities would not change service. A reasonable assumption is to take the average of the VoTs of road and rail as a proxy of the VoT of SPECTRUM commodities.
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Average speed figures are based on industrial experience, and for the SPECTRUM scenario it is based on design specifications.
All road (GLCAR) | Regular rail (GLCRR) | SPECTRUM rail (GLCSR) | |
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A) Euro per tkma
| 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
B) Distance (km)b
| 530 | 530 | 480 |
C) Fare per ton = A*B | 43.7 | 30.8 | 35.9 |
D) Unit VoT (Euro per tkm)c
| 2.81 | ||
E) Average speed (Km/h)d
| 80 | 60 | 82 |
F) Transport time (hours) | 6.6 | 14.0 | 11.9 |
of which: Pre + post haulagee
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Main haulagef
| 6.6 | 5.5 | 4.0 |
Stopsh
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
G) VoT per Ton = D*F | 18.6 | 39.4 | 33.5 |
GLC (Euro per ton) = C + G | 62.3 | 70.2 | 69.4 |
All road (GLCAR) | Regular rail (GLCRR) | SPECTRUM rail (GLCSR) | |
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A) Euro per tkma
| 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
B) Distance (km)b
| 874 | 874 | 824 |
C) Fare per ton = A*B | 74.9 | 48.7 | 59.2 |
D) Unit VoT (Euro per tkm)c
| 2,99 | ||
E) Average speed (Km/h)d
| 80 | 60 | 100 |
F) Transport time (hours) | 10.9 | 23.7 | 18.6 |
of which: Pre + post haulagee
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Main haulagef
| 10.9 | 11.2 | 6.7 |
Stopsg
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
G) VoT per Ton = D*F | 32.6 | 70.9 | 55.6 |
GLC (Euro per ton) = C + G | 107.6 | 119.6 | 114.8 |
All road (GLCAR) | Regular rail (GLCRR) | SPECTRUM rail (GLCSR) | |
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A) Euro per tkma
| 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
B) Distance (km)b
| 545 | 545 | 495 |
C) Fare per ton = A*B | 45.1 | 31.6 | 36.9 |
D) Unit VoT (Euro per tkm)c
| 2.77 | ||
E) Average speed (Km/h)d
| 80 | 60 | 100 |
F) Transport time (hours) | 6.8 | 12.3 | 9.3 |
of which: Pre + post haulagee
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Main haulagef
| 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 |
Stopsg
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
G) VoT per Ton = D*F | 18.8 | 33.9 | 25.8 |
GLC (Euro per ton) = C + G | 63.9 | 65.5 | 62.7 |
Service area 1 | Service area 2 | Service area 3 | |
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User benefit per ton (existing rail traffic) | 0.38 | 2.39 | 1.35 |
User benefit per ton (shifted traffic) | 7.12 | 7.19 | 1.12 |
User benefit per ton (new traffic) | 69.43 | 114.81 | 62.77 |
Service area 1 | Service area 2 | Service area 3 | ||||
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2030 | 2044 | 2030 | 2044 | 2030 | 2044 | |
Existing rail traffic (ton) | 439,394 | 523,199 | 833,828 | 993,181 | 107,246 | 125,822 |
Shifted traffic (ton) | 145,455 | 175,342 | 229,970 | 273,349 | 14,493 | 14,029 |
New traffic (ton) | 0 | 5 | 14,837 | 22,820 | - | 2723 |
External cost | Service area 1 | Service area 2 | Service area 3 |
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Air pollution | 0.045 €ct/tkm | 0.011 €ct/tkm | 0.252 €ct/tkm |
Climate change | 0.021 €ct/tkm | 0.019 €ct/tkm | 0.485 €ct/tkm |
External cost | Service area 1 | Service area 2 | Service area 3 |
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Noise | 0.035 €ct/tkm | 0.022 €ct/tkm | 0.028 €ct/tkm |
Euro per 1000 tkm | Road (service area 1) | Road (Service Area 2) | Road (Service Area 3) | SPECTRUM rail (Service area 1) | SPECTRUM rail (Service area 2) | SPECTRUM rail (Service area 3) | Regular Rail |
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Accidents | 17,00 | 17,00 | 17,00 | 0,15 | 0,03 | 0,09 | 0,20 |
Air pollution | 9,21 | 2,93 | 8,77 | 0,45 | 0,11 | 2,52 | 1,70 |
Climate change (average) | 4,89 | 6,26 | 9,16 | 0,21 | 0,19 | 4,85 | 2,30 |
Noise | 2,50 | 2,50 | 2,50 | 0,35 | 0,22 | 0,28 | 1,00 |
Up Down stream Processes | 3,70 | 3,70 | 3,70 | 4,75 | 4,75 | 4,75 | 4,75 |
Nature and landscape | 0,70 | 0,70 | 0,70 | - | - | - | - |
Biodiversity losses | 0,50 | 0,50 | 0,50 | - | - | - | - |
Soil and water pollution | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 | 0,40 | 0,40 | 0,40 | 0,40 |
Urban effects | 0,90 | 0,90 | 0,90 | 0,10 | 0,10 | 0,10 | 0,10 |
Congestion | 28,50 | 28,50 | 28,50 | - | - | - | - |
Total externalities | 68,89 | 47,19 | 72,73 | 6,40 | 5,81 | 12,99 | 10,45 |
Euro millions (NPV) | Service area 1 | Service area 2 | Service area 3 |
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Investment costsa
| 3,3 | 5,6 | 2,2 |
Development costs | 35,5 | 54,9 | 4,0 |
Operating costs | 11,7 | 38,4 | 4,9 |
Total costs | 50,5 | 98,9 | 11,1 |
Internal benefits (users’ surplus) | 16,7 | 73,1 | 2,4 |
External benefits (reduction of external costs) | 77,8 | 123,3 | 3,8 |
Total benefits | 94,5 | 196,4 | 6,2 |
Total NPV | 43,9 | 97,5 | 4,9 |
ERR | 14 % | 18 % | n.c. |
BCR | 1,9 | 2,0 | 0,6 |
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Costs of annoyance;
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Health costs.
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Time of the day: people are more sensitive to noise during night time than day time, hence the marginal costs will be higher at night;
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Reception density near to the source: gives an indication of the population exposed to the noise,
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Existing noise levels: due to the logarithmic noise characteristics, the marginal costs depend strictly on the existing noise levels, i.e. on the volume, mix and speed of the existing traffic.
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Stage 1 (Segments): Divide railway into homogeneous segments in order to ensure that the noise variation within each element is less than 2 dB(A). Hence, the following categories have been considered:
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Type of environment: urban/rural;
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Number of tracks: single/double track railway;
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Type of support: ballast with concrete sleepers/bridges;
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Presence of points (S&C) to model a station.
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Stage 2 (Reference SEL): Calculate the reference noise level SELref at a reference distance of 25 m as:
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Stage 3 (Propagation): Apply the corrections for the distance of reception point from the track, ground and air absorption, effect of screening and angle of view at the reception point. Distance of reception point: two adjustments have been made in order to refine the calculations. In the first one, a 250 m wide band on each side of the railway has been considered with an equivalent noise level equal to 85 % of the maximum level. In the second adjustment three bands corresponding to three noise levels have been calculated on either side of the railway.
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Stage 4 (Reflection): Apply the corrections for reflection effects, which include façade effects and opposite façade effects.
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Stage 5 (LAeq): The resulting SEL values after the corrections determined at Stage 3 and Stage 4 are converted to LAeq values taking in account both the time period and the number of trains.
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Up- and down-stream processes
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Nature and landscape
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Biodiversity losses
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Soil and water pollution
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Urban effects
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Congestion
2 Results
3 Conclusions
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the estimation of ad hoc unit parameters for the external costs involving emissions, noise and accidents (the EC guidelines provide parameters for comparing road and rail transports, but since the SPECTRUM solution is novel, new parameters were needed and therefore estimated);
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an ad hoc approach for using GLC as proxies of users’ surplus in a scenario where the introduction of the innovative service modifies the modal split of freight transport between three types of solutions (EC Guidelines do not provide specific details for projects whose outcome is a three-way choice for freight transport).