1 Introduction
2 Previous research
2.1 Analysis in Japan
2.2 Analysis overseas
2.3 Brief summary
3 Methods for estimating direct and spillover damage
3.1 Overview
3.2 Direct damage estimation method using the production function
3.2.1 Model
3.2.2 Dataset
JIP data (108 industries) | Damage calculated by JNSA (ten thousand yen) | Proportion (%) | |
---|---|---|---|
Code | JIP industry name | ||
9 | Seafood products | 36,761 | 0.2 |
28 | Miscellaneous chemical products | 7653 | 0.0 |
29 | Pharmaceutical products | 39 | 0.0 |
59 | Miscellaneous manufacturing industries | 718,731 | 4.1 |
62 | Electricity | 1296 | 0.0 |
63 | Gas, heat supply | 97 | 0.0 |
67 | Wholesale | 107,287 | 0.6 |
68 | Retail | 1,273,817 | 7.3 |
69 | Finance | 750,424 | 4.3 |
71 | Real estate | 296 | 0.0 |
79 | Mail | 18,132 | 0.1 |
80 | Education (private and non-profit) | 12,93 | 0.1 |
81 | Research (private) | 8 | 0.0 |
84 | Other public services | 11,566,30 | 66.0 |
88 | Other services for businesses | 13 | 0.0 |
90 | Broadcasting | 296,16 | 1.7 |
91 | Information services and internet-based services | 1,141,597 | 6.5 |
92 | Publishing | 1,449,170 | 8.3 |
95 | Accommodation | 54,421 | 0.3 |
97 | Other services for individuals | 80,500 | 0.5 |
Total | 17,516,211 | 100.0 |
(1000 h) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
JIP data (108 industries) | Lr (recovery working time) | JIP data (108 industries) | Lr (recovery working time) | ||
Code | JIP industry name | Code | JIP industry name | ||
1 | Rice, wheat production | 0 | 55 | Motor vehicle parts and accessories | 0 |
2 | Miscellaneous crop farming | 0 | 56 | Other transportation equipment | 0 |
3 | Livestock and sericulture farming | 0 | 57 | Precision machinery & equipment | 0 |
4 | Agricultural services | 0 | 58 | Plastic products | 0 |
5 | Forestry | 0 | 59 | Miscellaneous manufacturing industries | 555 |
6 | Fisheries | 0 | 60 | Construction | 0 |
7 | Mining | 0 | 61 | Civil engineering | 0 |
8 | Livestock products | 0 | 62 | Electricity | 1 |
9 | Seafood products | 28 | 63 | Gas, heat supply | 0 |
10 | Flour and grain mill products | 0 | 64 | Waterworks | 0 |
11 | Miscellaneous foods and related products | 0 | 65 | Water supply for industrial use | 0 |
12 | Prepared animal foods and organic fertilizers | 0 | 66 | Waste disposal | 0 |
13 | Beverages | 0 | 67 | Wholesale | 83 |
14 | Tobacco | 0 | 68 | Retail | 983 |
15 | Textile products | 0 | 69 | Finance | 579 |
16 | Lumber and wood products | 0 | 70 | Insurance | 0 |
17 | Furniture and fixtures | 0 | 71 | Real estate | 0 |
18 | Pulp, paper, and coated and glazed paper | 0 | 72 | Housing | 0 |
19 | Paper products | 0 | 73 | Railway | 0 |
20 | Printing, plate making for printing and bookbinding | 0 | 74 | Road transportation | 0 |
21 | Leather and leather products | 0 | 75 | Water transportation | 0 |
22 | Rubber products | 0 | 76 | Air transportation | 0 |
23 | Chemical fertilizers | 0 | 77 | Other transportation and packing | 0 |
24 | Basic inorganic chemicals | 0 | 78 | Telegraph and telephone | 0 |
25 | Basic organic chemicals | 0 | 79 | Mail | 14 |
26 | Organic chemicals | 0 | 80 | Education (private and non-profit) | 10 |
27 | Chemical fibers | 0 | 81 | Research (private) | 0 |
28 | Miscellaneous chemical products | 6 | 82 | Medical (private) | 0 |
29 | Pharmaceutical products | 0 | 83 | Hygiene (private and non-profit) | 0 |
30 | Petroleum products | 0 | 84 | Other public services | 8,931 |
31 | Coal products | 0 | 85 | Advertising | 0 |
32 | Glass and its products | 0 | 86 | Rental of office equipment and goods | 0 |
33 | Cement and its products | 0 | 87 | Automobile maintenance services | 0 |
34 | Pottery | 0 | 88 | Other services for businesses | 0 |
35 | Miscellaneous ceramic, stone and clay products | 0 | 89 | Entertainment | 0 |
36 | Pig iron and crude steel | 0 | 90 | Broadcasting | 229 |
37 | Miscellaneous iron and steel | 0 | 91 | Information services and internet-based services | 881 |
38 | Smelting and refining of non-ferrous metals | 0 | 92 | Publishing | 1119 |
39 | Non-ferrous metal products | 0 | 93 | Video picture, sound information, character information production and distribution | 0 |
40 | Fabricated constructional and architectural metal products | 0 | 94 | Eating and drinking places | 0 |
41 | Miscellaneous fabricated metal products | 0 | 95 | Accommodation | 42 |
42 | General industry machinery | 0 | 96 | Laundry, beauty and bath services | 0 |
43 | Special industry machinery | 0 | 97 | Other services for individuals | 62 |
44 | Miscellaneous machinery | 0 | 98 | Education (public) | 0 |
45 | Office and service industry machines | 0 | 99 | Research (public) | 0 |
46 | Electrical generating, transmission, distribution and industrial apparatus | 0 | 100 | Medical (public) | 0 |
47 | Household electric appliances | 0 | 101 | Hygiene (public) | 0 |
48 | Electronic data processing machines, digital and analog computer equipment and accessories | 0 | 102 | Social insurance and social welfare (public) | 0 |
49 | Communication equipment | 0 | 103 | Public administration | 0 |
50 | Electronic equipment and electric measuring instruments | 0 | 104 | Medical (non-profit) | 0 |
51 | Semiconductor devices and integrated circuits | 0 | 105 | Social insurance and social welfare (non-profit) | 0 |
52 | Electronic parts | 0 | 106 | Research (non-profit) | 0 |
53 | Miscellaneous electrical machinery equipment | 0 | 107 | Other (non-profit) | 0 |
54 | Motor vehicles | 0 | 108 | Activities not elsewhere classified | 0 |
Total | 13,524 |
3.3 Estimating method of spillover damage by input–output model
3.3.1 Model
3.3.2 Dataset
4 Results and discussion
4.1 Estimated damage for each industrial sector
Aggregated sector classification (37 I/O sectors) | Direct damage | (million yen) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spillover Damage [e] excluding direct damage | Total damage [d] + [e] | ||||||
[a] Direct damage based on value-added | [b] Output/value added ratio | [c] Direct damage based on production value | [d] Direct damage based on domestic products | ||||
Code | I/O sector name | ||||||
01 | Agriculture, forestry, and fishery | 0 | 2.126503 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 53 |
06 | Mining | 0 | 2.099589 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
11 | Beverages and Foods | 32 | 2.756982 | 90 | 74 | 82 | 156 |
15 | Textile products | 0 | 2.561870 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 |
16 | Pulp, paper, and wooden products | 0 | 2.944163 | 0 | 0 | 341 | 341 |
20 | Chemical products | 22 | 3.109826 | 67 | 50 | 177 | 227 |
21 | Petroleum and coal products | 0 | 3.359303 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 166 |
22 | Plastic products and rubber products | 0 | 2.739282 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 254 |
25 | Ceramic, stone, and clay products | 0 | 2.133693 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 58 |
26 | Iron and steel | 0 | 3.913770 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 189 |
27 | Non-ferrous metals | 0 | 4.257120 | 0 | 0 | 93 | 93 |
28 | Metal products | 0 | 2.308869 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 125 |
29 | General-purpose machinery | 0 | 2.349833 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 53 |
30 | Production machinery | 0 | 2.240863 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 |
31 | Business oriented machinery | 944 | 2.523802 | 2382 | 1663 | 123 | 1786 |
32 | Electronic components | 0 | 2.767972 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 234 |
33 | Electrical machinery | 0 | 2.882688 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 54 |
34 | Information and communication electronics equipment | 0 | 2.990018 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
35 | Transportation equipment | 0 | 4.270088 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 154 |
39 | Miscellaneous manufacturing products | 0 | 2.241849 | 0 | 0 | 354 | 354 |
41 | Construction | 0 | 2.231711 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 103 |
46 | Electricity, gas, and heat supply | 18 | 2.873856 | 51 | 51 | 353 | 403 |
47 | Water supply | 0 | 2.062349 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 60 |
48 | Waste management service | 0 | 1.569432 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 112 |
51 | Commerce | 1559 | 1.481588 | 2310 | 2305 | 589 | 2894 |
53 | Finance and insurance | 2279 | 1.550069 | 3532 | 3392 | 451 | 3842 |
55 | Real estate | 1 | 1.194597 | 1 | 1 | 516 | 517 |
57 | Transport and postal services | 12 | 2.004639 | 25 | 23 | 975 | 998 |
59 | Information and communications | 5137 | 2.009158 | 10,322 | 9857 | 2700 | 12,556 |
61 | Public administration | 728 | 1.433960 | 1045 | 1045 | 27 | 1072 |
63 | Education and research | 13 | 1.385286 | 18 | 17 | 55 | 73 |
64 | Medical, health care, and welfare | 0 | 1.641402 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
65 | Membership-based associations, n.e.c | 0 | 1.775624 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 45 |
66 | Business services | 0 | 1.639199 | 0 | 0 | 3492 | 3492 |
67 | Personal services | 161 | 1.957895 | 315 | 308 | 146 | 454 |
68 | Office supplies | 0 | 0.000000 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 58 |
69 | Activities not elsewhere classified | 0 | 2.453457 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 110 |
Total | 10,907 | – | 20,158 | 18,785 | 12,385 | 31,170 |
(million yen) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aggregated sector classification (37 I/O sectors) | Estimated value < Repost > | Proportion to total (%) | |||||
direct damage | Spillover damage | Total | Direct damage | Spillover damage | Total | ||
Code | I/O sector name | ||||||
01 | Agriculture, forestry, and fishery | 0 | 53 | 53 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
06 | Mining | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
11 | Beverages and Foods | 74 | 82 | 156 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
15 | Textile products | 0 | 23 | 23 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
16 | Pulp, paper, and wooden products | 0 | 341 | 341 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
20 | Chemical products | 50 | 177 | 227 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
21 | Petroleum and coal products | 0 | 166 | 166 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
22 | Plastic products and rubber products | 0 | 254 | 254 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
25 | Ceramic, stone, and clay products | 0 | 58 | 58 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
26 | Iron and steel | 0 | 189 | 189 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
27 | Non-ferrous metals | 0 | 93 | 93 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
28 | Metal products | 0 | 125 | 125 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
29 | General-purpose machinery | 0 | 53 | 53 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
30 | Production machinery | 0 | 38 | 38 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
31 | Business oriented machinery | 1663 | 123 | 1786 | 8.9 | 1.0 | 5.7 |
32 | Electronic components | 0 | 234 | 234 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
33 | Electrical machinery | 0 | 54 | 54 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
34 | Information and communication electronics equipment | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
35 | Transportation equipment | 0 | 154 | 154 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
39 | Miscellaneous manufacturing products | 0 | 354 | 354 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
41 | Construction | 0 | 103 | 103 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
46 | Electricity, gas, and heat supply | 51 | 353 | 403 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
47 | Water supply | 0 | 60 | 60 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
48 | Waste management service | 0 | 112 | 112 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
51 | Commerce | 2305 | 589 | 2894 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 9.3 |
53 | Finance and insurance | 3392 | 451 | 3842 | 18.1 | 3.6 | 12.3 |
55 | Real estate | 1 | 516 | 517 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
57 | Transport and postal services | 23 | 975 | 998 | 0.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 |
59 | Information and communications | 9857 | 2700 | 12,556 | 52.5 | 21.8 | 40.3 |
61 | Public administration | 1045 | 27 | 1072 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 3.4 |
63 | Education and research | 17 | 55 | 73 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
64 | Medical, health care, and welfare | 0 | 10 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
65 | Membership-based associations, n.e.c | 0 | 45 | 45 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
66 | Business services | 0 | 3492 | 3492 | 0.0 | 28.2 | 11.2 |
67 | Personal services | 308 | 146 | 454 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
68 | Office supplies | 0 | 58 | 58 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
69 | Activities not elsewhere classified | 0 | 110 | 110 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Total | 18,785 | 12,385 | 31,170 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
(million yen) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aggregated sector classification (37 I/O sectors) | Estimated value | ||||||
Direct damage | Spillover damage | Total | |||||
Code | Sector name | ||||||
31 | Business oriented machinery | 1663 | 8.9% | 123 | 1.0% | 1786 | 5.7% |
51 | commerce | 2305 | 12.3% | 589 | 4.8% | 2894 | 9.3% |
53 | Finance and Insurance | 3392 | 18.1% | 451 | 3.6% | 3842 | 12.3% |
59 | Information and communications | 9857 | 52.5% | 2,700 | 21.8% | 12,556 | 40.3% |
66 | Business services | 0 | 0.0% | 3492 | 28.2% | 3492 | 11.2% |
Top 5 total | 17,217 | 91.7% | 7355 | 59.4% | 24,570 | 78.8% | |
Other than the top 5 | 1568 | 8.3% | 5030 | 40.6% | 6600 | 21.2% | |
Total | 18,785 | 100.0% | 12,385 | 100.0% | 31,170 | 100.0% |