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2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

10. An NEG Analysis of Megathrust Earthquakes in Japan

verfasst von : Ryusuke Ihara

Erschienen in: Spatial Economic Modelling of Megathrust Earthquake in Japan

Verlag: Springer Singapore

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Abstract

This chapter investigates the impact of megathrust earthquakes on Japanese regional structure. Even after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, there are serious concerns about predicted earthquakes in the near future; for instance, Tokyo Metropolitan Area (M. A.) earthquakes (expected to occur just in Tokyo M.A.), Tokai earthquakes (expected to occur in the area facing the Pacific Ocean on the west side of Tokyo M.A.), and Nankai megathrust earthquake (expected to occur in the area facing the Pacific Ocean on the west side of Kansai M.A.). In this chapter, we focus on the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Nankai megathrust earthquakes and the associated tsunami and consider how they changed the regional economies of Japan. Constructing an NEG model composed of the 47 prefectures of Japan, simulation results show that the predicted labor distribution approaches the actual distribution and as transportation costs decrease, labor distribution changes from dispersion to agglomeration in the metropolitan areas and then to re-dispersion in rural areas. In addition, adapting the damage data of megathrust earthquakes to this model, we predict the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake and a Nankai megathrust earthquake on the regional potential and labor distribution among the prefectures. The simulation result of a Nankai megathrust earthquake predicts that the indirect utility levels in the affected prefectures fall by 1%, and the resulting outflow of refugees reduces the prefectural population by 3% in the worst case.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Economic Impacts of Population Decline Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake: An Inter-regional Input–Output Approach

Nächstes Kapitel Evaluating Dynamic, Regional, and Economic Impacts of the Tokai Earthquake

Nur mit Berechtigung zugänglich

The Central Disaster Management Council in the Cabinet Office of Japan expects various cases for an NME. Extracting a part of the cases expected, Ihara (2014) studied the impact of the earthquakes on regional structure in Japan. This chapter expands Ihara (2014) and investigates all the cases that have applicable estimated data for an NME as well as the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Figures 10.1 and 10.2 are constructed with σ = 4, α ^M = 0.7, α ^A = 0.2, \( {\beta}_K^M={\beta}_K^A=0.1 \), \( {L}_r^M={L}_r^A=1 \), and \( {K}_r^M={K}_r^A={K}_r^H=1 \). In addition, we set F = 1, c ^M = c ^A = 1 in this chapter for analytical simplicity.

For the simulation in this chapter, the long-run equilibrium is given by the condition where the difference of the indirect utility level from the national average becomes less than 0.1% for all regions.

The highest correlation coefficient is given in the case of t = 1, not in the case of t = 0.7. This is because the calibration takes labor distribution as given, whereas the simulation considers interregional labor migration.

The hardest hit prefectures were Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki, and Chiba, which comprise 10.9% of the GDP of Japan (by industry, 19.6% of agricultural sector, 11.8% of manufacturing sector, and 10.5% of services sector), and 12.7% of the population of Japan in 2010. Miyagi prefecture is the economic and political center of Tohoku area while Chiba constitutes the Tokyo metropolitan area with Tokyo, Kanagawa, and Saitama.

The impact of the tsunami differs among prefectures, depending on the land use of coastal areas. That is, some prefectures with large cities in coastal area, such as Miyagi, may suffer larger damage than others. However, our 47-prefecture model cannot directly handle such a difference based on coastal land use because there is no geographical information inside the prefectures in our model. Instead, we can refer to the detailed information about the damages to land use and population reported by the government. On the other hand, Ihara et al. (2013) also presented a model using 35 counties of the Miyagi Prefecture as a case study of the impact of the GEJE inside the prefectures.

The Reconstruction Agency reports that all agricultural area will be recovered by 2015, except the areas sunk under the water and the warning zone in Fukushima.

To understand the impact of an NME, it is helpful to see some economic features of the expected stricken areas. The following table shows the regional share of the GDP (total and by industry) and the population of Japan in 2010. Tokai area specializes in the manufacturing sector and the Kansai area is the economic and political center of Western Japan.

Area	Prefecture	GDP Share (%)				Population (%)
Area	Prefecture	Total	Agriculture	Manufacture	Services	Population (%)
Tokai	Shizuoka, Aichi, Mie	12.4	9.0	18.5	10.5	11.8
Kansai	Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara, Wakayama	15.7	6.0	15.8	15.7	16.3
Shikoku	Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime, Kochi	2.7	5.7	2.8	2.7	3.1
Kyushu	Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Kagoshima	8.8	17.4	8.1	8.9	10.3

We do not consider the damage of the island area of the Tokyo prefecture, which is small and far from Honshu Island.

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Titel: An NEG Analysis of Megathrust Earthquakes in Japan
verfasst von: Ryusuke Ihara
Verlag: Springer Singapore
Buch: Spatial Economic Modelling of Megathrust Earthquake in Japan
Print ISBN: 978-981-10-6492-0

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-10-6493-7

Copyright-Jahr: 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-6493-7_10

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