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In 2007, the World Bank published the report, “An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth,” and raised the issue of “a middle income trap” for the first time. In “China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society,” released in 2012 by the World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, it was estimated that out of 101 middle-income economies in 1960, only 13 became high-income by 2008, namely, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR (China), Israel, Puerto Rico, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritius, and Taiwan of China.
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By the World Bank’s definition, China was “low income” before 1997, “lower-middle income” in 1997, “low income” again in 1998, and “lower-middle income” between 1999 and 2009, while being considered “upper-middle income” since 2010.
Research Group on China’s Economic Growth and CASS Institute of Economics ( 2012).
Lu Yang, “The Potential Growth Rate of China’s Output and Predictions,” in Reports on China’s Population and Labor No. 13, ed. Cai Fang (Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press), 98–110.
Xiaolu et al. ( 2009).
The World Bank has adopted the Atlas conversion factor to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international comparisons of GNI. The Atlas conversion factor for any given year is the average of a country’s exchange rate for that year and its exchange rates for the two preceding years, with an adjustment for the difference between the rate of inflation in the country and international inflation. A country’s inflation rate is measured by the change in its GDP deflator, and international inflation is measured using the change in a deflator based on the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights, known as the “SDR deflator.”
Cited from The World Bank at www.worldbank.org and Lynge Nielsen, “Classification of Countries Based on Their Level of Development: How It Is Done and How It Could Be Done.” IMF Working Paper WP/11/31 (February, 2011).
While the World Bank started its groupings in 1987, our observation starts with 1991 to obtain a larger number of samples.
The figures in brackets are average annual growth rates of GDP per capita from 1961 to 2011, when Singapore, the Republic of Korea, and Equatorial Guinea had grown into high-income countries, while China and Botswana only grew from low-income to upper-middle-income due to their extremely low per capita income in 1961.
Since the World Bank per capita income data was not released until 1962, we hereby make an approximate substitution using the 1962 ratio between China and US in per capita income.
Fernando Gabriel Im and David Rosenblatt, “Middle Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6594 (September, 2013).
The WDI Database only provides real growth rates of Argentina’s GNI per capita up to 2007.
Zurück zum Zitat Research Group on China’s Economic Growth, & CASS Institute of Economics. (2012). China’s long-term growth: Path, efficiency, and potential growth rate. Economic Research Journal, 12, 4–17, 75. Research Group on China’s Economic Growth, & CASS Institute of Economics. (2012). China’s long-term growth: Path, efficiency, and potential growth rate. Economic Research Journal, 12, 4–17, 75.
Zurück zum Zitat Xiaolu, W., Gang, F., & Peng, L. (2009). China’s economic growth: Modal transformation and sustainability. Economic Research Journal, 1, 4–16. Xiaolu, W., Gang, F., & Peng, L. (2009). China’s economic growth: Modal transformation and sustainability. Economic Research Journal, 1, 4–16.
- Aspects of the Middle Income Trap
- Springer Singapore
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