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Erschienen in:
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2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Assessing Aid: Conceptual and Methodological Issues

verfasst von : Jonathan Glennie, Andy Sumner

Erschienen in: Aid, Growth and Poverty

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK

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Abstract

In this chapter we discuss issues of methodology related to aid effectiveness studies with a focus on causality and bias. We discuss the methodological issues emerging from the aid effectiveness literature.

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Vorheriges Kapitel A History of Aid Effectiveness
Nächstes Kapitel Aid, Growth, and Poverty: An Empirical Review of Cross-country Research
Fußnoten
1
According to OECD-Development Assistance Committee (DAC) (2014: 3), concessional development finance in 2012 for DAC plus other reporting countries was $133.4bn and non-reporting countries was a further $5.1bn making $138.5bn. One problem which illustrates some of the discussion in this section is that ODA aid figures exclude NGO (Non-Governmental Organisation) and foundation aid except that which is funded by ODA.
 
2
See also Riddell (2007, 2014).
 
3
As we explain later, we define ‘aid’ as ODA on the basis that it accounts for the overwhelming majority of aid.
 
4
Further, the data used—net ODA—includes emergency/humanitarian aid which is likely to be proportionally more important in fragile and conflict-affected states.
 
5
Take for example, Dutch disease (aid inflows lead to exchange rate depreciation and loss of competitiveness and falling export earnings, possibly outweighing the aid inflow in value). Dutch disease can be misleading as it is very static (economies move around a given production possibility frontier between tradables and non-tradables). Aid is rather about investments that move the frontier out over time. Further, the evidence on the existence of Dutch disease is very mixed and will depend on the level of aid, the host economy, and so forth. If aid is invested in reducing transactions costs (e.g. better roads), health and education (e.g. better human capital), then it becomes cheaper to produce (per unit); then any appreciation of the exchange rate matters less so (and in any case will tend to occur as economies grow). Selaya and Thiele (2010) find no empirical support for the idea that aid tends to encourage Dutch disease. However, Rajan and Subramanian (2011) do find substantial Dutch disease effects of aid.
 
6
Here we discuss these issues in a general sense—later in the book we refer specifically to econometrics.
 
7
See later discussion on this with reference to econometrics.
 
8
Poorer countries tend to get more aid per capita and this “allocation effect’ tends to bias estimates of aid’s impact in a negative direction (Dalgaard and Hansen 2009). The standard practice (other than randomised controlled trials) is to use instrumental variable regressions in an attempt to identify exogenous variation in aid, and hence be able to infer a causal effect of aid (see discussion of Bazzi and Clemens 2013). See also Carter (2014) for discussion of the standard empirical methods employed in the study of foreign aid and the potential for misleading results concerning the object of interest—the long-run impact of aid.
 
9
They find that crossing the IDA threshold slows growth and that is likely due to aid. Once this is taken into account, they find with a sample of just 35 countries that after passing the threshold, every 1 % of aid/GNI raises income per person by a third of a percentage point. A further promising approach is that by Temple and Van de Sijpe (2014).
 
10
They find a positive effect that is only statistically significant at the 10 % level, and is only externally valid for countries that receive aid from major oil exporters.
 
11
Thanks to Mark McGillivray for this observation (and others).
 
12
See also Pawson (2006) and White (1992).
 
Literatur
Bazzi, S., & Clemens, M. A. (2013). Blunt instruments: Avoiding common pitfalls in identifying the causes of economic growth. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, 5(2), 152–186.
Brückner, M. (2013). On the simultaneity problem in the aid and growth debate. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28(1), 126–150.CrossRef
Carter, P. (2014). Aid regressions when agents optimize. Mimeo.
Chatelain, J., & Ralf, K. (2014). Spurious regressions and near-multicollinearity, with an application to aid, policies and growth. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 85–96.CrossRef
Cassen, R. and Associates (1986). Does aid work? Oxford: OUP.
Dalgaard, C-J., & Hansen, H. (2009). Evaluating aid effectiveness in the aggregate: Methodological issues. Evaluation Study. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark.
Deaton, A. (2009). Instruments of development: Randomization in the tropics, and the search for the elusive keys to economic development. NBER Working Paper Series. Working Paper 14690. Cambridge MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Faust, J. (2008). Are more democratic donor countries more development oriented? : Domestic institutions and external development promotion in OECD countries. World Development, 36(3), 383–398.CrossRef
Galiani, S., Knack, S., Xu, C., & Zou. B. (2014). The effect of aid on growth: Evidence from a quasi-experiment. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 6865. Washington DC: The World Bank.
Glennie, J. and Sumner, A. (2014b). The $138.5 Billion Question: When Does Foreign Aid Work (and When Doesn’t It)?. CGD Policy Paper 49. Washington DC: Center for Global Development.
Heckman, J. (2008). Econometric causality. International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, 76(1), 1–27.CrossRef
Imbens, G. W., & Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(1), 5–86.CrossRef
Mosley, P. (1987). Overseas aid: Its defence and reform. Brighton: Wheatsheaf.
Newby, T. (2010). Unintended effects of development aid – A brief overview. DIIS Working Paper 2010:06, Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies.
OECD-DAC (2014). Non-DAC countries and the debate on measuring post-2015 development finance. Paper for DAC Meeting, 10 February 2014.
Pawson, R. (2006). Evidence-based policy: A realist perspective. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Qian, N. (2014). Making progress on foreign aid. Annual Review of Economic 3. In Press.
Rajan, R. G., & Subramanian, A. (2011). Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth. Journal of Development Economics, 94(1), 106–118.CrossRef
Ramalingam, B., Jones, H., Reba, T., & Young, J. (2008). Exploring the science of complexity: Ideas and implications for development and humanitarian efforts. London: Overseas Development Institute.
Riddell, R. (2014). Does foreign aid really work? Background paper to keynote address to the Australasian Aid and International Development Workshop, Canberra.
Riddell, R. (2007). Does foreign aid really work? Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Riddell, R. (1987). Foreign aid reconsidered. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Roodman, D. (2004). The anarchy of numbers: Aid, development, and cross-country empirics. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development.
Roodman, D. (2007). The anarchy of numbers: Aid, development, and cross-country empirics. World Bank Economic Review, 21(2), 255–277.CrossRef
Roodman, D. (2008). Through the looking glass, and what OLS found there: On growth, foreign aid, and reverse causality. Center for Global Development Working Paper Number 137. Washington DC: CGD.
Selaya, P., & Thiele, R. (2010). Aid and sectoral growth: Evidence from panel data. Journal of Development Studies, 46(10), 1749–1766.
Sumner, A. and Glennie, J. (2015b) Growth, Poverty and Development Assistance: When Does Foreign Aid Work? Global Policy. 6(3): 201-211.
Temple, J. R. W, & Van de Sijpe, N. (2014). Foreign aid and domestic absorption. CSAE Working Paper Series 2014–01, Oxford: Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
Werker, E., Ahmed, F. Z., & Cohen, C. (2009). How is foreign aid spent? Evidence from a natural experiment. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1, 25–244.
White, H. (1992). The macroeconomic impact of development aid: A critical survey. Journal of Development Studies, 28(2), 163–240.CrossRef
World Bank. (2014). World development indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Metadaten
Titel
Assessing Aid: Conceptual and Methodological Issues
verfasst von
Jonathan Glennie
Andy Sumner
Copyright-Jahr
2016
Buch
Aid, Growth and Poverty

Print ISBN: 978-1-137-57271-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-1-137-57272-1

Copyright-Jahr: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-57272-1_3