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2021 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

5. Basic Income in the Twenty-First Century (the 00s and 10s)

verfasst von : Prof. Wayne Simpson

Erschienen in: Is Basic Income Within Reach?

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The first two decades of the twenty-first century brought little relief to advanced economies in terms of poverty, inequality, disruptive technological change, and precarious employment. There were only limited reforms to the welfare state, although promising initiatives to integrate social assistance benefits with greater financial incentives to work occurred in France and the U.K., albeit with a continuation of work conditions. Basic income pilot projects have proliferated but appear to lack the focus and documentation that scientific experimentation would require. Research on optimal taxation has led to proposals for a negative income tax in the form of a refundable tax credit that would mirror the Universal Credit implemented in the U.K. but with greater work incentives and no work conditions. Emerging microsimulation modelling provides a promising alternative strategy to evaluate basic income policies.

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Fußnoten
1
A supplemental poverty measure (SPM) for the U.S. was introduced in 2011 to include non-cash benefits and tax credits as income, whereas the official poverty standard covered only a family’s cash income, and to exclude various expenses. The SPM also updates the market basket each year to reflect shifting patterns of spending on basic needs, including housing, but it is only available from 2009 (Stone et al. 2020). The SPM shows a sharper drop in the U.S. poverty rate, concentrated in the 1960s and 1970s, but leaves the U.S. with a rate that is still 14.4% in 2018, about one in seven Americans.
 
3
Hoynes and Rothstein provide multiple references on the labour supply response of mothers to the EITC.
 
4
For 2020, the exemption level was 20,711 per annum and the tax rate on earnings was 5.672% (https://​www.​iamexpat.​nl/​expat-info/​allowances-benefits-netherlands/​dutch-tax-credits). At the prevailing exchange rate of $1.12 to the Euro and a U.S. poverty threshold for a single person under 65 of $13,064, this amounted to just under 20% of the poverty line. A labour tax credit is also available that mimics the U.S. Earned Income Tax Credit and reduces the marginal effective tax rate further, even to a negative rate (a net earnings subsidy) for some income levels.
 
5
At the prevailing euro-dollar exchange rate of 1.33 in 2010, these support levels corresponded to $7134, $10,709 and $15,002 annually or 63, 75 and 67% of the U.S. poverty thresholds of $11,344, $14,216 and $22,315 for that year.
 
7
At the prevailing euro-dollar exchange rate of 1.13 in 2010, 600 would correspond to an annual payment of $8136 or 63% of the U.S. poverty threshold of $12,752. Since the RSA amounted to something like an additional 63% of the U.S. poverty line (as in fn 5), the proposal would have provided a relatively high-income guarantee as a partial basic income.
 
9
£311.55 per month or £3738.60 per annum is equivalent to about $4920 U.S. at the exchange rate prevailing in 2013 (https://​www.​poundsterlingliv​e.​com/​bank-of-england-spot/​historical-spot-exchange-rates/​gbp/​GBP-to-USD-2013), which is about 40% of the U.S. poverty threshold for a single individual under 65 in that year ($12,119). A more complex system of benefits, including housing benefits, was provided to other demographic groups as the Credit was rolled out.
 
10
€1500 per month translated to $2205 per month or $26,240 per year, which would be 236% of the U.S. poverty threshold of $11,201 for a single individual under 65 years of age. For a family of four, €5000 per month translated to $88,200 per year or 400% of the U.S. poverty threshold of $22,025 for a family of four.
 
11
US$633 per month or $7596 per annum would have been 60% of the U.S. poverty threshold of $12,752 for a single person under 65 in 2017.
 
12
Participation is voluntary, unlike the case for the Finnish experiment.
 
13
Retention of 25% of earnings was also capped at six months in the Dutch welfare system, whereas the 50% retention rate on earnings for those treated would last for the two-year duration of the experiment.
 
14
UIA is an initiative of the European Commission to provide support for projects that investigate innovative and creative solutions to urban problems.
 
15
The design provided for an additional pool to ensure a control group of 383 even with attrition.
 
16
McFarland (2017b). The combined income and benefit of $1560 per month or $18,720 per annum would be 75% of the U.S. poverty line of $25,094 for a family of four in 2017. A benefit of $2011 per month or $24,132 per year would be very close to the poverty line for a family of four.
 
18
At present the only planned project beyond Stockton involves payments of $1000 per month for a year plus provision of support programs to 15 poor black mothers in Jackson, Mississippi: http://​springboardto.​org/​index.​php/​blog/​story/​introducing-the-magnolia-mothers-trust.
 
19
Details on this control group―its size, composition, refusal rate, etc.―are not available from the SEED/Economic Security Project website at https://​www.​stocktondemonstr​ation.​org/​. If there was no payment to the control group to participate, then greater recruitment and retention problems are likely than were experienced in the larger NIT control groups where such payments were made, compromising standard treatment-control experimental analysis.
 
20
At the October, 2020 exchange rate of about $1.18 to the euro, this translates to an annual payment of about $16,970 or about 130% of the U.S. poverty threshold for a single individual in 2019 ($13,011). It is also about 112% of the “risk of poverty” standard of 60% of average income (€1074 per month in 2019) adopted by the German government: See https://​www.​dw.​com/​en/​poverty-in-germany-on-the-rise/​a-54553080.
 
21
The report recommends a low treatment of £73.10 per week based on current benefit levels and a high treatment of £213.59 based on the Minimum Income Standard for those between 25 years of age and pension age.
 
22
UBI is used loosely here to encompass NIT plans with income testing, since that is typically the meaning of guaranteed income in the American context.
 
23
In what must be described as a design flaw, there was no baseline survey to allow for the analysis of changes in the well-being of the treatment and control groups during the experiment, so that it was not possible to determine if the positive results could be attributed to the UBI treatment.
 
24
See, for example, Cain (1986) and the discussion in Chapter 3 (Sect. 3.​4). Non-response (or attrition) left 867 in the treatment group but only 231 in the control group, which would compromise the reliability of treatment-control comparisons in many instances.
 
25
The payment of $2069 in 2008 was supplemented by a $1200 Alaska Resource Rebate. Payments of $2052, $2300 and $2700 from 2016 to 2018 were reduced by legislative action to $1022, $1100 and $1600, respectively (https://​pfd.​alaska.​gov/​Division-Info/​Summary-of-Applications-and-Payments). On the other hand, the 2019 payment was boosted to $1600 using reserve funds. Normally the payments are made in October, but the 2020 payment of $992 has been delivered early because of the pandemic.
 
26
Forget (2011), although another recent analysis of the Dauphin saturation site has used the rural comparison group from Mincome that was designed for that purpose (Calnitsky and Latner 2016).
 
27
There has been some research looking at the implications of seeking non-welfarist objectives, such as poverty alleviation (Kanbur et al. 1994), but the results do not seem to be particularly informative from a practical policy standpoint. Moreover, it is not clear that the social welfare objective needs to be discarded to address poverty, entitlement to minimal consumption or other non-welfarist concerns (Fleurbaey and Maniquet 2015). A full, if technical, discussion of the issues around optimal taxation under non-welfarist social objectives can be found in Tuomala (2016, especially Chapter 9).
 
28
A commission chaired by Nobel Laureate James Meade had undertaken a similar exercise of strategic redesign of the tax system thirty years earlier, but the piecemeal nature of the evolution of taxation along with developments in understanding tax design was thought to justify a modern revisiting of the issue.
 
29
The argument for an earnings subsidy when labour supply response at the extensive margin is paramount is made by Saez (2002), but Kroft et al. (2015) show that the result does not necessarily hold when unemployment and wage responses to taxation are taken into account such that a negative income tax program may be optimal. Further discussion of this issue is provided by Tuomala (2016, especially Chapter 6).
 
30
The closest official calculation to a poverty line in the U.K. is 60% of median household income, which was £15,000 in 2010, and the Integrated Family Support would have been about 70% of this standard without housing benefits. Alternatively, at the October 2010 exchange rate of USD1.58 to the British pound, the Support would amount to $16,422 U.S. or about 75% of the official U.S. poverty line of $22,050 for 2010.
 
31
An exception may be the administrative and census data files available in some Scandinavian countries, which could capture life cycle behaviour of some birth cohorts.
 
32
The elasticity of taxable income is the percentage change in declared taxable income resulting from a 1% change in the “net of tax” rate. The elasticity aims to encapsulate all potential and unspecified responses to income taxation.
 
33
600 is $735 per month or $8820 annually at the June 30, 2010 exchange rate, or about 78% of the U.S. poverty threshold of $11,344 for a single adult under 65 in that year; €850 is $1000 per month, $12,000 annually or about 115% of the U.S. poverty threshold of $10,458 for a single adult 65 or older.
 
34
The U.S. poverty thresholds for 1994 were $7547 for a single individual and $15,141 for a family of four. The basic BIG would provide a guarantee of $12,350 or 82% of the poverty line for a family of four but only 53% of the poverty line for a single individual. The Adult Plus BIG would provide guarantees of $16,000 or 106% of the poverty line for a family of four and 80% of the poverty line for a single person.
 
35
Other plans favouring children and single parents redirect more income to children and to the lowest-income families at a cost comparable to the standard plan.
 
36
See Browne and Immervol’s Table 1, where the poverty line is 50% of median household income adjusted for household size using the square-root rule.
 
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Zurück zum Zitat Sommer, Maximillian. 2016. A Feasible Basic Income Scheme for Germany: Effects on Labor Supply, Poverty, and Income Inequality. Berlin and New York: Springer Publishing.CrossRef Sommer, Maximillian. 2016. A Feasible Basic Income Scheme for Germany: Effects on Labor Supply, Poverty, and Income Inequality. Berlin and New York: Springer Publishing.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Stiglitz, Joseph. 2012. The Price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future. New York and London: W. W. Norton & Company. Stiglitz, Joseph. 2012. The Price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future. New York and London: W. W. Norton & Company.
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Metadaten
Titel
Basic Income in the Twenty-First Century (the 00s and 10s)
verfasst von
Prof. Wayne Simpson
Copyright-Jahr
2021
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66085-7_5

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