Skip to main content

2020 | Buch

Before the Collapse

A Guide to the Other Side of Growth

insite
SUCHEN

Über dieses Buch

Nobody has to tell you that when things go bad, they go bad quickly and seemingly in bunches. Complicated structures like buildings or bridges are slow and laborious to build but, with a design flaw or enough explosive energy, take only seconds to collapse. This fate can befall a company, the stock market, or your house or town after a natural disaster, and the metaphor extends to economies, governments, and even whole societies. As we proceed blindly and incrementally in one direction or another, collapse often takes us by surprise. We step over what you will come to know as a “Seneca cliff”, which is named after the ancient Roman philosopher, Lucius Annaeus Seneca, who was the first to observe the ubiquitous truth that growth is slow but ruin is rapid. Modern science, like ancient philosophy, tell us that collapse is not a bug; it is a feature of the universe. Understanding this reality will help you to see and navigate the Seneca cliffs of life, or what Malcolm Gladwell called “tipping points.” Efforts to stave off collapse often mean that the cliff will be even steeper when you step over it. But the good news is that what looks to you like a collapse may be nothing more than the passage to a new condition that is better than the old.

This book gives deeper meaning to familiar adages such as “it’s a house of cards”, “let nature take its course”, “reach a tipping point”, or the popular Silicon Valley expression, “fail fast, fail often.” As the old Roman philosopher noted, “nothing that exists today is not the result of a past collapse”, and this is the basis of what we call “The Seneca Strategy.” This engaging and insightful book will help you to use the Seneca Strategy to face failure and collapse at all scales, to understand why change may be inevitable, and to navigate the swirl of events that frequently threaten your balance and happiness. You will learn:

How ancient philosophy and modern science agree that failure and collapse are normal features of the universePrinciples that help us manage, rather than be managed by, the biggest challenges of our lives and times Why technological progress may not prevent economic or societal collapseWhy the best strategy to oppose failure is not to resist at all costs

How you can “rebound” after collapse, to do better than before, and to avoid the same mistakes.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. The Science of Doom: Modeling the Future
Abstract
This chapter discusses how the models used to understand the future are built, what they are for, what they tell us, and what their limits are in warning us about collapses to come. It includes a section on why people tend to disbelieve models that predict collapse.
Ugo Bardi
Chapter 2. Complex Systems and the Science of Collapse
Abstract
How and why collapses occur according to the science of complex systems. Includes a section on the networked structure of complex systems and a chapter featuring “Amelia the Amoeba,” Ugo Bardi’s unicellular assistant, whose descendants in a Petri dish experience all kinds of collapses.
Ugo Bardi
Chapter 3. The Practice of Collapse
Abstract
This chapter is a survey of some of the collapses we may experience in the real world. Of course it cannot include all possible collapses, but it is a true smorgasbord of ruinous events: from buildings to that of entire civilizations. Each chapter includes tips and reflections on how to avoid collapses or, at least, reduce their damage.
Ugo Bardi
Chapter 4. Strategies for Managing Collapse
Abstract
This chapter illustrates the central ideas of the book: strategies to prevent the typical cause of collapse: overexploitation, but also how to profit from collapses (hint: have someone else collapse, instead). Collapses are not a bug but a feature of the universe, so it is a good idea to plan in advance how to deal with them.
Ugo Bardi
Chapter 5. Conclusion: Collapse as Seen in Ancient Philosophy
Abstract
This book started from a sentence written some two thousand years ago by the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca, “fortune is of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” Now that we have arrived to the end, we may return to Seneca and ask if we can still learn something from him and from the school of thought he belonged to, the Stoics.
Ugo Bardi
Backmatter
Metadaten
Titel
Before the Collapse
verfasst von
Ugo Bardi
Copyright-Jahr
2020
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-29038-2
Print ISBN
978-3-030-29037-5
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29038-2