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2010 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel
Boy or Girl?
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Abstract
Mary and John have two children. Their first-born is a boy named Jack. What is the probability that the couple have two children of different genders? This seems at first to be a ridiculously simple question. If we concede that it is just as probable for a boy or a girl to be born, and if we also concede that this has nothing to do with the gender of the first-born baby, then there is no doubt that the probability that the second child will be a girl (therefore not the same gender as the first-born) is 1 in 2. And that is the answer: 1 in 2.