7. Climate Change and Early Warning Systems for Wildland Fire

Wildland fires burn several hundred million hectares of vegetation around the world every year. A proportion of these wildland fires cause disastrous social, economic, and/or environmental impacts. Disaster fires occur in every global region and vegetated biome. Recent research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence during the last few decades, but there is much global variability. Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels, ignition agents, and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes. Under a warmer and drier future climate, fire management agencies will be challenged by fire weather conditions that could push current suppression capacity beyond a tipping point, resulting in a substantial increase in large fires, and a corresponding increase in disaster fires. To mitigate or prevent wildfire disaster, land and forest fire managers require early warning of extreme fire danger conditions. This allows time to implement fire prevention, detection, and presuppression action plans before disaster fires occur. Fire danger rating is the cornerstone of fire management decision-making and is commonly used to provide early warning of potential wildfires. Currently, less than half of the world has a national fire danger rating system in place. The Global Early Warning System for Wildland Fire is based on extended fire danger forecasts and aims to contribute to the Global Multi-Hazard Early Warning System evolving under the auspices of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and contribute to implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action. By using longer-term forecast data from advanced numerical weather models, and early warning products that are further enhanced with satellite data, the global system provides extra time to coordinate suppression resource-sharing and mobilization within and between countries in advance of disaster conditions.