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2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

2. Climate Change and Farmer–Herder Conflicts in West Africa

verfasst von : Charlène Cabot

Erschienen in: Climate Change, Security Risks and Conflict Reduction in Africa

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Abstract

Nomadic and semi-nomadic herders such as the FulBe have a long history of migrating and also of building relationships with various sedentary farming populations in West Africa. These contacts can take various forms, from coexistence to cooperation or competition and even to conflicts over shared natural renewable resources, namely fresh water and land, which can be referred to as Common-Pool Resources (CPRs). The effects of climate change are already being felt in these regions, and the IPCC forecasts that they will significantly increase, with more irregular precipitation and rising temperatures. These changes could aggravate land degradation and increase the frequency of droughts, and consequently lead to declining food production and a decline in the availability of water. Climate change is thus putting a strain on delicate relationships between farmers and herders, because of its effect on CPRs. Herders and farmers of the drylands of West Africa are indeed highly vulnerable to changes in the availability of CPRs. In a context where the object of the conflict plays (or is perceived to play) a key role in the survival of the parties, there are risks of an escalation to violence and a destabilization of the security of both communities. Agro-pastoral conflicts might increase in frequency and intensity in the coming years. However, a conflict reduction lens can be applied to these climate-change-induced or -aggravated farmer–herder conflicts over CPRs in general and in particular in West Africa.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Introduction

Nächstes Kapitel Causal Linkages Between Environmental Change and Conflict

The death toll is estimated to have been close to a million victims since 1990 when the killings began (IISS 2009), and approximately 500,000 people succumbed over six weeks in 1994, at the height of the violence (Human Rights Watch/Africa 1994: 1, 4).

It is acknowledged that this statement is very political and that, as such, it contributes to shaping the understanding of the conflict as viewed through a specific prism. However, every analysis of a conflict must adopt a point of view (be it a focus on natural resources or on ethnic competition) and will always carry some political meaning and possibly contribute to a political agenda. Throughout this study, opposed perspectives are presented and weighed to give a nuanced vision of the issues at stake.

This is controversial and several studies highlight additional non-environmental factors as causes of the conflict in Darfur such as “the weakening of traditional conflict resolution mechanism |…]”, the exclusion of some groups from political processes, and the lack of development (IPCC 2014b: 773).

Very violent and destructive examples of farmer–herder conflicts are even more frequent in East Africa: in 2004, for instance, at the intersection of Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, 600 people died and 40,000 head of livestock were lost during clashes between farmers and herders (Meier et al. 2007, in Brinkman/Hendrix 2011: 8). East African farmer–herder conflicts have, however, been the object of more research, which is why the focus of this study is on West Africa.

Several authors suggest that the oldest written reference to such a conflict might well be the murder of Abel, the shepherd, by his brother Cain, the cultivator, in the Bible, Genesis 4.1 to 4.8 (Dafinger 2004: 188; Hagberg 2001: 45; Meier 2011: 1430; Benjaminsen et al. 2009: 423).

Cultural unity is based on the FulBe code of conduct, the ‘Pulaaku’, and often on their pastoralist livelihood strategy.

Their language is called Fulfulde or Pulaar.

Islam is the religion practised by the majority of the FulBe.

Details are provided in Sect. 2.2.2.

Vanderweerd et al. (2011) and Brauch/Oswald Spring (2011a), for example.

These two reports also introduce threat minimizers and actions/recommendations that could help diminish the threat posed by climate change to security (see Sect. 4.3 below).

A later report from the IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC 2012), uses another definition of vulnerability. It is still seen as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected by climate change, but exposure is no longer considered to be one parameter determining vulnerability but rather a separate factor interacting with it. In this new conceptual approach it is still posited that when a high level of exposure combines with a high level of vulnerability the adverse impacts of climate change are at their highest, and the report still sees the way to buffer people against these impacts as resilience-building (notably through disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation; IPCC 2012).

Meanwhile, resilient social and ecological systems are able to “anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of” shocks such as slow-onset or rapid-onset climatic shocks “in a timely and efficient manner”. Resilient systems maintain their basic structures and ways of functioning, and restore or even improve them in the face of a shock (IPCC 2012: 3). This is why resilience-building is at the centre of the protection of vulnerable societies from climate change.

See Sect. 2.2.2 for a more detailed account of desertification.

Low-income countries have a GDP per capita of less than US$578 per year (2011 data, the latest available).

Zero (0) represents the lowest and one (1) represents the highest HDI values.

At the time of publication, the MDGs have been replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals in the framework of the Agenda 2030 (adopted in September 2015).

More specifically by an Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDG Indicators, under the leadership of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (UN 2013).

In 2010, the total world population reached 6.9 billion (UNPD 2012).

This is an estimate according to a medium scenario, but a higher population growth is conceivable: the highest estimate is that there will be six billion people living in Africa in 2100. Even the most conservative estimate suggests 2.8 billion people.

At the time of publication, more recent data has become available: The Millennium Development Goal Report 2015, http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/2015_MDG_Report/pdf/MDG%202015%20rev%20(July%201).pdf (8 May 2016) and IFAD, WFP, 2015: The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2013. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4646e.pdf (8 May 2016).

At the time of publication, more recent data has become available: In 2015, 795 million people were undernourished. More information is available at FAO, IFAD, WFP, 2015: The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2013. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4646e.pdf (8 May 2016).

The threshold of generalized HIV epidemics is set at 1 % of the population between 15 and 49 years old.

FAO used the latest available data to establish the list of LIFDC in 2012: data on Gross National Income is from 2009 and data on food imports and exports is from the three years preceding 2012, for which data is available.

Agro-pastoral systems vary across the study area: they essentially consist of pastoralism, hunting and gathering wildlife resources in the northern, Sahelian zone; in transhumant livestock-raising and cereals in the semi-arid zones; and, cultivation of family plots as well as some larger-scale farming in southern Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire (Courade/Devèze 2006: 22). The main cultivated crops are staple foods such as millet, maize, rice and sorghum, while livestock includes a majority of small ruminants and some cattle (UNEP 2011: 19).

However, some traditional authorities exist in these areas and they are not devoid of societal organization.

See also the Global Monitoring Report issued by the World Bank on the influence of conflict on the progress towards the MDGs (WB 2011: 30) and The World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development by the World Bank which estimates that countries which have hosted violent conflicts between 1980 and 2005 have, on average, a poverty rate 25 % higher than those who have not hosted any (WB 2011: 5).

Floods were the most frequent natural disaster in West Africa in 2010–2011, but droughts affected the largest number of people (EM–DAT 2011).

Individuals’ vulnerability of course depends on many socio-demographic factors (including wealth and gender) (IPCC 2014b: 768).

Data from 2006–2011: people living below the poverty line represent 24 % of the population in Côte d’Ivoire, 30 % in Ghana and 45 % in Burkina Faso (WB Databank 2011).

IFPRI (2011): “The Global Hunger Index is based on three equally weighted indicators: 1—the proportion of undernourished (with insufficient dietary energy intake) as a percentage of the population; 2—the prevalence of underweight in children under the age of five; 3—the under-five mortality rate.”

At the time of publication, more recent data has become available: Global Hunger Index 2015: http://ghi.ifpri.org/. In 2015 the index placed Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire at a ‘serious’ levels and Ghana at a ‘moderate’ level.

The HDI ranks 187 countries (UNDP 2013). At the time of publication, more recent data has become available: HDI of 2015 http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries (8 May 2016).

Losses could reach a drop of 40 % in species abundance by 2050 (PBL 2010: 47).

See Figs. 2.6, 2.7, 2.8, 2.9 and 4.4 for details on climate change impacts in the region. In addition, the FAO (2011) report The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture (SOLAW)‐Managing systems at risk synthesizes climate change risks specific to agricultural systems on a world map (Fig. 3.4, p. 33). The chief identified risks in West Africa are desertification/drought and loss or reduction of soil fertility (FAO 2011b).

Desertification and land degradation also contribute to climate change through complex feedbacks into the global climate system, such as variations in the radiative forcing of the planet that can be influenced by changes in mineral dust loadings and in the albedo in general (IPCC 2007c: 437). (Radiative forcing is a measure of the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by the Earth and the amount reflected back to space.)

See Journal of Arid Environments 63 (2005) for detailed and critical information on the desertification and greening trends in the Sahel.

See Figs. 2.8, 2.9 and 4.4 for details.

Increasingly volatile precipitation can translate into various patterns such as shorter or delayed rainy seasons, absence of rain, or concentration of precipitations during a short time interval, leading to floods.

The increase in CO₂ rates in the atmosphere is one of the best-known consequences of climate change.

Wild resources play an important role in complementing agro-pastoral livelihoods. They comprise fuel wood, fruit, roots, medicinal plants and bush meat (UNEP 2011: 21). There has been little study of the impact of climate change on these resources so far but some type of effects can be expected (IPCC 2014a: 494).

Mitigating climate change is an option to limit climate change impacts and to try avoiding the stage of tipping points and coping mechanisms. However, mitigation strategies can also have potential for conflict. Increased use of biofuels for instance can lead to competition over agricultural land and in Africa conflicts have been registered between investors and local users whose livelihoods rely on this land (Bergius/Webersik 2013: 34).

See Fig. 4.1 in Sect. 4.2.1 for the destabilization of soil security in Africa.

Scholars in the field of environmental migration stress the connections between vulnerability and environmental migration (as an opportunity or as a coping strategy of last resort), and they see a clear need for further research on how collective action and equality-building can reduce vulnerability (ESF 2012).

This causal chain is presented in more detail in Chap. 4, Sect. 4.2.1.

GRET is a French developmental non-governmental organization.

This report was issued in cooperation with the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the United Nations University (UNU) and the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS).

“The maps, which were produced through a technical cooperation with the University of Salzburg’s Centre for Geoinformatics, focus on four climate indicators based on the best available data: precipitation (1970–2006), temperature (1970–2006), occurrence of drought (1982–2009), and occurrence of flooding (1985–2009). The potential impact of projected sea-level rise in the region is also mapped. The data is then combined to identify potential ‘hotspots’, including areas where the most extreme changes in the four individual climate indicators have taken place, as well as areas where the most cumulative change in these four climate indicators has occurred” (UNEP 2011: 7).

See map Areas most affected by major changes in individual climate indicators—Sahel Region; at: http://www.unep.org/disastersandconflicts/portals/155/disastersandconflicts/docs/sahel_maps/Map11_UNEP_map_A3_climate_indicators_SummaryMap_20110719_300DPI.pdf, and map Areas most affected by changes in climate—Sahel Region (Presentation of Climate Hotspots and Conflict Areas); at: http://www.unep.org/disastersandconflicts/portals/155/disastersandconflicts/docs/sahel_maps/Map12_UNEP_map_A3_hotspot_map_20110719_300DPI.pdf.

Violence can be defined as “any avoidable insult to basic human needs” and can target the body, mind or spirit (Galtung/Fischer 2013: 35).

See Chap. 6 below on the ethnicization of land rights in Côte d’Ivoire, for instance.

People who consume a resource but do not contribute to it (contribution to the production of the resource, to its conservation, or simple payment of a fee for consuming it) (adapted from IEA 2012: 57).

Hardin, Gareth, 1968: “The tragedy of the commons”, in Science 162: 1243–1248.

‘Commons’ originally meant common pastureland.

More information is given in Chap. 4.

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Titel: Climate Change and Farmer–Herder Conflicts in West Africa
verfasst von: Charlène Cabot
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Buch: Climate Change, Security Risks and Conflict Reduction in Africa
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-29236-1

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-29237-8

Copyright-Jahr: 2017
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29237-8_2

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