nach oben

Erschienen in:

2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Communicating and Using Ensemble Flood Forecasts in Flood Incident Management: Lessons from Social Science

verfasst von : David Demeritt, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Laurence Créton-Cazanave, Céline Lutoff, Isabelle Ruin, Sébastien Nobert

Erschienen in: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

This chapter explores the practical challenges of communicating and using ensemble forecasts in operational flood incident management. It reviews recent social science research on the variety and effectiveness of hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) visualization methods and on the cognitive and other challenges experienced by forecast recipients in understanding probabilistic forecasts correctly. To explore how those generic findings from the research literature work out in actual operational practice, the chapter then discusses a series of case studies detailing the development, communication, and use of HEPS products in various institutional contexts in France, Britain, and internationally at the EU and global levels. The chapter concludes by drawing out some broader lessons from those experiences about how to communicate and use HEPS more effectively.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Saving Lives: Ensemble-Based Early Warnings in Developing Nations

Nächstes Kapitel Overview of Communication Strategies for Uncertainty in Hydrological Forecasting in Australia

L. Alfieri, P. Burek, E. Dutra et al., GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 1161–1175 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013CrossRef

BBC, Money “no object” for flood relief. BBC News (2014). http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-26131515. Accessed 1 Aug 2014

H. Bell, G. Tobin, Efficient and effective? The 100-year flood in the communication and perception of flood risk. Environ. Hazards 7, 302–311 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.08.004CrossRef

G. Blöschl, Flood warning – on the value of local information. Int. J. River Basin Manage. 6, 41–50 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635336CrossRef

K. Bogner, F. Pappenberger, Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system. Water Resour. Res. 47, W07524 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009137CrossRef

K. Broad, A. Leiserowitz, J. Weinkle, M. Steketee, Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane season. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 651–667 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-5-651CrossRef

M. Bruen, P. Krahe, M. Zappa et al., Visualizing flood forecasting uncertainty: some current European EPS platforms-COST731 working group 3. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 11, 92–99 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.258CrossRef

P. Bye, M. Horner, Easter 1998 Floods: Report by the Independent Review Team to the Board of the Environment Agency (Environment Agency, Bristol, 1998)

CEC, The European Community Response to the Flooding in Austria, Germany and Several Applicant Countries: A solidarity-Based Initiative (Commission of the European Communities, Brussels, 2002)

H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. J. Hydrol. 375, 613–626 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005CrossRef

A. Cole, Prefects in search of a role in a Europeanised France. J. Public Policy 31, 385–407 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X11000122CrossRef

H.M. Collins, R. Evans, The third wave of science studies: studies of expertise and experience. Soc. Stud. Sci. 32, 235–296 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1177/0306312702032002003CrossRef

E. Coughlan de Perez, B. van den Hurk, M.K. van Aalst et al., Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 895–904 (2015). https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-895-2015CrossRef

L. Créton-Cazanave, Warning! The use of meteorological information during a flash-flood warning process. Adv. Sci. Res. 3, 99–103 (2009)CrossRef

L. Créton-Cazanave, Penser l’alerte par les distances. Entre planification et émancipation, l’exemple du processus d’alerte aux crues rapides sur le bassin versant du Vidourle, Université de Grenoble, 2010

L. Créton-Cazanave, C. Lutoff, Stakeholders’ issues for action during the warning process and the interpretation of forecasts’ uncertainties. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 13, 1469–1479 (2013). https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1469-2013CrossRef

J.D. Creutin, M. Borga, E. Gruntfest et al., A space and time framework for analyzing human anticipation of flash floods. J. Hydrol. 482, 14–24 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.009CrossRef

M. Dale, J. Wicks, K. Mylne et al., Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: an innovative risk-based approach. Nat. Hazards 70, 159–172 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0483-zCrossRef

F. Daupras, J.M. Antoine, S. Becerra, A. Peltier, Analysis of the robustness of the French flood warning system: a study based on the 2009 flood of the Garonne River. Nat. Hazards 1–27 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1318-xCrossRef

A. De Roo, J. Thielen, P. Salamon et al., Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS). Int. J. Digital Earth 4, 77–90 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2010.510302CrossRef

F. Dedieu, Une catastrophe ordinaire la tempête du 27 décembre 1999 (Editions de l’Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Paris, 2013)CrossRef

D. Demeritt, The perception and use of public weather services by emergency and resiliency professionals in the UK. Report for the Met Office Public Weather Service Customer Group. 2 Mar (King’s College London, London, 2012)

D. Demeritt, Spooked politicians are undermining flood defence policy with short term decisions. New Civil Engineer 9 (2014)

D. Demeritt, S. Nobert, Responding to early flood warning in the European Union, in Forecasting, Warning, and Transnational Risks: Is Prevention Possible? ed. by C.O. Meyer, C. de Franco (Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2011), pp. 127–147CrossRef

D. Demeritt, S. Nobert, Models of best practice in flood risk communication and management. Environ. Hazards 1–16 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2014.924897CrossRef

D. Demeritt, H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger et al., Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environ. Hazards 7, 115–127 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001CrossRef

D. Demeritt, S. Nobert, H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting. Meteorol. Appl. 17, 209–222 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1002/met.194CrossRef

D. Demeritt, S. Nobert, M. Buchecker et al., Assessing Risk Communication Strategies and Effectiveness in Early Warnings (UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, 2013a)

D. Demeritt, S. Nobert, H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrol. Process. 27, 147–157 (2013b). https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9419CrossRef

C.A.I. Doswell, Weather forecasting by humans – heuristics and decision making. Weather Forecast. 19, 1115–1126 (2004)CrossRef

G.A. Fine, Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction (University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2010)

J. Frick, C. Hegg, Can end-users’ flood management decision making be improved by information about forecast uncertainty? Atmos. Res. 100, 296–303 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.006CrossRef

G. Gigerenzer, Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty (Penguin Books, London, 2003)

G. Gigerenzer, R. Hertwig, E. Van Den Broek et al., “A 30% chance of rain tomorrow”: how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Anal. 25, 623–629 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.xCrossRef

GrrlScientist, O’Hara B, Is widespread sexism making hurricanes more deadly than himmicanes? (2014), http://www.theguardian.com/science/grrlscientist/2014/jun/04/hurricane-gender-name-bias-sexism-statistics?CMP=twt_fd. Accessed 5 Aug 2014

S. Haines, E.M. Stephens, Partnerships in weather forecasting: development, distance, and dialogue (in review).

J. Handmer, B. Proudley, Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: the case of weather forecasts. Environ. Hazards 7, 79–87 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.002CrossRef

W.E. Highfield, S.A. Norman, S.D. Brody, Examining the 100-year floodplain as a metric of risk, loss, and household adjustment. Risk Anal. 33, 186–191 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01840.xCrossRef

C. Hood, The Blame Game: Spin, Bureaucracy, and Self-Preservation in Government (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2010)CrossRef

F. Houdré, L’Annonce des crues: Histoire et évolution des services de 1847 à nos jours (Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire et de l’Environnement, Paris, 2001)

M. Huber, H. Rothstein, The risk organisation: or how organisations reconcile themselves to failure. J. Risk Res. 16, 651–675 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2012.761276CrossRef

P. Huet, P. Foin, C. Laurain, P. Cannard, Retour d’expe´rience des crues de septembre 2002 dans les départements du Gard, de l’Hérault, du Vaucluse, des Bouches-du-Rhône, de l’Ardèche et de la Drôme: rapport consolidé après phase contradictoire (Service de l’inspection générale de l’environnement, Paris, 2003)

S.L. Joslyn, R.M. Nichols, Probability or frequency? Expressing forecast uncertainty in public weather forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 16, 309–314 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/met.121CrossRef

S.L. Joslyn, L. Nadav-Greenberg, M.U. Taing, R.M. Nichols, The effects of wording on the understanding and use of uncertainty information in a threshold forecasting decision. Appl. Cogn. Psychol. 23, 55–72 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.1449CrossRef

K. Jung, S. Shavitt, M. Viswanathan, J.M. Hilbe, Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 201402786 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1402786111CrossRef

T. Kox, L. Gerhold, U. Ulbrich, Perception and use of uncertainty in severe weather warnings by emergency services in Germany. Atmos. Res. (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.02.024CrossRef

R. Krzysztofowicz, The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology. J. Hydrol. 249, 2–9 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00420-6CrossRef

D. Lumbroso, B. von Christierson, Communication and Dissemination of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: Literature Review of International Material (Environment Agency, Bristol, 2009)

F. Martini, A. De Roo, EXCIFF Guide: Good Practice for Delivering Flood-Related Information to the General Public (Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, 2007)

S. MCarthy, S. Tunstall, D. Parker et al., Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood. Environ. Hazards 7, 179–192 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.06.003CrossRef

C.O. Meyer, F. Otto, J. Brante, C. De Franco, Recasting the warning-response problem: persuasion and preventive policy. Int. Stud. Rev. 12, 556–578 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.00960.xCrossRef

R.E. Morss, Interactions among flood predictions, decisions, and outcomes: synthesis of three cases. Nat. Hazard. Rev. 11, 83–96 (2009)CrossRef

R.E. Morss, M.H. Hayden, Storm surge and “certain death”: interviews with Texas coastal residents following Hurricane Ike. Wea. Climate Soc. 2, 174–189 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WCAS1041.1CrossRef

R.E. Morss, J.L. Demuth, J.K. Lazo, Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: a survey of the U.S. public. Weather Forecast. 23, 974–991 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2007088.1CrossRef

A.H. Murphy, S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, R.L. Winkler, Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 61, 695–701 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1980)061<0695:MOPPF>2.0.CO;2CrossRef

N. Nicholls, Cognitive illusions, heuristics, and climate prediction. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 1385–1398 (1999)CrossRef

S. Nobert, D. Demeritt, H. Cloke, Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden. J. Flood Risk Manage. 3, 72–79 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01056.xCrossRef

NRC [National Research Council], Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts (National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2006)

N.A. Odoni, S.N. Lane, Knowledge-theoretic models in hydrology. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 34, 151–171 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133309359893CrossRef

T.N. Palmer, The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: from days to decades. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 747–774 (2002)CrossRef

F. Pappenberger, H.L. Cloke, A. Persson, D. Demeritt, HESS Opinions “On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?”. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 2391–2400 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011CrossRef

F. Pappenberger, E. Stephens, J. Thielen et al., Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrol. Process. 27, 132–146 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9253CrossRef

E.C. Penning-Rowsell, S.M. Tunstall, S.M. Tapsell, D.J. Parker, The benefits of flood warnings: real but elusive, and politically significant. Water Environ. J. 14, 7–14 (2000)CrossRef

M. Pitt, The Pitt Review: Learning Lessons from the 2007 Floods (Cabinet Office, London, 2008)

M.-H. Ramos, T. Mathevet, J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger, Communicating uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts: mission impossible? Meteorol. Appl. 17, 223–235 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1002/met.202CrossRef

M.S. Roulston, T.R. Kaplan, A laboratory-based study of understanding of uncertainty in 5-day site-specific temperature forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 16, 237–244 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1002/met.113CrossRef

D. Spiegelhalter, M. Pearson, I. Short, Visualizing uncertainty about the future. Science 333, 1393–1400 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1191181CrossRef

E. Stephens, H. Cloke, Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geogr. J. 4, 310–316 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103CrossRef

E.M. Stephens, T.L. Edwards, D. Demeritt, Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles-lessons from numerical weather prediction. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang. 3, 409–426 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.187CrossRef

J. Thielen, J. Bartholmes, M.H. Ramos, A. De Roo, The European Flood Alert System – part 1: concept and development. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13, 125 (2009)CrossRef

G. Thirel, E. Martin, J.-F. Mahfouf et al., A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – part 2: impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 14, 1639–1653 (2010a). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1639-2010CrossRef

G. Thirel, E. Martin, J.-F. Mahfouf et al., A past discharges assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – part 1: description and validation of the assimilation system. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 14, 1623–1637 (2010b). https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1623-2010CrossRef

A. Tversky, D. Kahneman, Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124–1131 (1974). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124CrossRef

F. Vinet, Approches nationales de la prévention des risques et besoins locaux : le cas de la prévision et de l’alerte aux crues dans le Midi méditerranéen. Géocarrefour 82, 35–42 (2007). https://doi.org/10.4000/geocarrefour.1438CrossRef

F. Vinet, D. Lumbroso, S. Defossez, L. Boissier, A comparative analysis of the loss of life during two recent floods in France: the sea surge caused by the storm Xynthia and the flash flood in Var. Nat. Hazards 61, 1179–1201 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9975-5CrossRef

V.H.M. Visschers, R.M. Meertens, W.W.F. Passchier, N.N.K. De Vries, Probability information in risk communication: a review of the research literature. Risk Anal. 29, 267–287 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01137.xCrossRef

J. Wilsdon, R. Willis, See-Through Science: Why Public Engagement Needs to Move Upstream (Demos, London, 2004)

M. Zappa, F. Fundel, S. Jaun, A “Peak-Box” approach for supporting interpretation and verification of operational ensemble peak-flow forecasts. Hydrol. Process. 27, 117–131 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9521CrossRef

Titel: Communicating and Using Ensemble Flood Forecasts in Flood Incident Management: Lessons from Social Science
verfasst von: David Demeritt
Elisabeth M. Stephens
Laurence Créton-Cazanave
Céline Lutoff
Isabelle Ruin
Sébastien Nobert
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Buch: Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-39924-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-642-39925-1

Copyright-Jahr: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39925-1_44