11. Conclusions: Prospects for FDI-Led Development in a Post-crisis World

This chapter explores the possibilities CEE countries have for convergence with the development paths of the Western countries in a post-crisis setting. It argues that the current way in which the CEE countries have integrated into the global value chains of multinational corporations seems unlikely to provide strong further momentum for such convergence. Processes of “upgrading,” which many have perceived as the solution to longer term national development driven by FDI, are unlikely to meaningfully support convergence as these processes go hand-in-hand with decreasing shares of value capture by local affiliates. The CEE countries are stuck in a “low value capture trap” and require policies which foster the emergence of innovative, CEE-based global value chains in order to exit this trap.